Natural gas futures fell on a bigger than expected build of +73 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Ahead we focus on cold weather and the coronavirus effect, LNG and Mexican exports and the winter outlook for the US.
A tricky shoulder season with Meteorologists expect an abnormally hot September but with Imelda just popping up expect variability. October is looking warm in Texas for now but cooler elsewhere. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.
Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.
EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 4/10/2020
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Thursday Apri 16 2020 10:30 ET
Market Expectations
- Actual +73 Bcf Prior +38 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast +59 Bcf
- Cons. Range: +45 to +75 Bcf
- EIA swap: +71 to +72 @ CT 15.13
Last Week's Report +38 Bcf #TCNG
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level:2024 Bcf
- Storage 2018/Same Week: 1148
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1700
TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format
- EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
- LNG and Export Warch
- Natural Gas Import Watch
- Natural Gas Demand Watch
- Nuke Watch
- Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
- Option Vol
- DCOT Report
Weather Watch
Gulf of Mexico
Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average
EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch
US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey +67
- DJ Survey +64
- Reuters Survey +59
- Platts Survey+71
Banks and Brokers
- Tim Evans Citigroup +48
- Macquarie+73
- TFS +66
Analysts
- AgWxMan -
- Refinitiv +74
- Bart Roy -
- Genscape +75
- Gabe Harris -
- WoodMac +72
- Kidduff Report +59
- Platts GW +73
- Robry825 +65
- The Pit Boss +72
- Norse +71
- Andrea Paltry +65
- Point Logic +66
- Bespoke +55
- Jacob Meisel -
- Schneider Electric +78
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville +64
- NG Junkie -
- EBW +67
NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.
Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models
- Bentek S/D Model +73 Bcf
- Bentek Flow Model:+76 Bcf
“Soft shoulder season demand for the first half of April was exacerbated by the ongoing demand destruction from coronavirus. Both res-com and industrial demand showed week-over-week declines of 3.2 and 0.8 Bcf/d. On the supply side, US production increased by about 0.2 Bcf/d week over week, with the recent increases split between the midcontinent and Northeast regions.” - Platts (Bentek)
EIA Swap Market - Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Natural Gas spat the previous low and -2/8 with an island reversal to test the Kijun and downtrend line but fell back to Tanken The big question is was that a completed move down there or a 3? Support on downtrend Tenkan.
Natty sat lower trend line to test the weekly tenkan and Kijun. We got the Kijun att he cloud above, remember kiss of death.brought it down Much work to do here through channels.
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Natural Gas Storage Analysis
via RonH Data @ronh999
via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Production Watch
US natgas dry production
US Dry Production For December Slightly Down From November
Natural Gas LNG Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi
++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates
Natgas inflow and LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.
For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here
Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Canada Import Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Demand Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here
Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999
Natural Gas Nuke Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.
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Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)
NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol
NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)
Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016
Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )
- For Mar 31, 2020.
- Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
- WoW change +3663 longs -12713 shorts +16376 net change 40% net long.
- (Prior Weeks 36% 32% 28% 26% 25% 24% 25% 27% 30% 36% 36% 28% 25% 25% 28% 33% 39% 42% 37% 30% 27% 29% 26% 27% 27% 29% 32% 33% 32% 37% 41% 45% :52%, 52%, 56%, 62%, 70% net long)
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave
From the Traders Community Research Desk
