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EIA reported massive builds in crude, distillate and gasoline storage. US production finally fell to 12.30 mbpd, off record high of 13.10 mbpd.Crude prices continue to fall despite OPEC+ cuts. Still oil production and inventories far outstrip demand since the Coronavirus.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 4/8/20

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday April 15 2020 - 9:30 ET
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude +19248k +11600k +15177k +13143k
Cushing +5724k +5878k +6417k
+5361k
Gasoline

+4914k

-+6800k +10497k +2226k
Distillate +6280k

+1200k

+495k +5664k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization -6.5% to  69.10% Exp -5.9%
  • Production -100k to 12.30 mbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

Covid-19 Contango Crude Prices

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API Crude Inventories

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WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

After WTI workied off the chikou with the outside trend line under $20 in 5 waves it quickly reversed in 3 this week.  We need sustained impulse from here for a reversal. Question is was that completing a C or 3 of something larger.  Recall the initial collpase where math and crowd behavior tell the story right to the +2/8 and collapsed back to the break up and now through the channel, accelerating when Tenkan and 50 dma crossed.  Note 1.618 extension of previous emotive wave.

WTI D 4 10 2020

WTI has been a series of fractals. expected in algorithm dominated price action From the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to 16yr lows we have seen mirror replications.  From here we see need traction to work out from 3 waves  Key resistance is Kijun and 50wma confluence (green) which all failed after the violent spike up. Support channel and fib conflageration with MM 0 -8 and -2-8

WTI W 4 10 2020
 

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Brent crudeoil longs were left exposed once it broke key support on Wednesday. Two weeks of selling had failed to trigger a reduction in the net-long. In wk to Jan 21 it even rose by 2.8k lots to reach a 15-mth high at 429k lots. The WTI long rose by 6.4k lots to 232k

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COT on commodities to Jan 21 shows the changes made by funds just before the coronavirus outbreak became the main market driver. The worrying news from China raised concerns about its potential impact on demand for key commodities from crudeoil to copper and soybeans

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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DigStic Data @DigStic

Dec 11 2019 - Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.


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RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing Oil Stocks

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 NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought 213.40 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -182.20 mil YoY

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US consumers spent $395.4 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is -$723.5 mil YoY.


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US avg retail price for gasoline was $1.853 last week. That is -97.5 cents YoY 

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US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production 12.30mpd 0ff ATH 13.10mpd

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 September Field Oil Production Hits a New High 12.463 mpd

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  ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

OILytics @OilyticsData

EIA Crude:

Crude: Another set of record-breaking stats. Crude build of +19.2MM as crude stocks hit above 500MM for the first time since June 2017. Cushing +5.7MM and +15.66 in the last 3 weeks. Refinery runs continue to crater, the lowest level since Sept 2008.

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EIA Products:

EIA Products:Products build of +7.99MM as gasoline and disty build +4.9MM and +6.28MM. Demand in complete freefall as gasoline stocks hit record highs.

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US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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