Oil & Energy

Google Ad

Crude oil futures continue to collapse in the face of the oil price war  and Coronavirus fears crushing demand.. EIA reported a build in crude storage and large draws in gasoline and distillate. US production came slightly off the record high of 13.10 mbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

>Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 3/18/20

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednessday March 25 2020 - 9;30 ET
EIA Expected Prior EIA Prior API
Crude +1623k +2900k +1954k -421k
Cushing +858k +678k +583k
+66k
Gasoline

-1537k

-1700k -6180k -7834k
Distillate -678k

-1900k

-2940k -3652k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization +.9% 87.30% Exp -0.1%
  • Production -100bpd to 13.00 mbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

Global Crude Prices

 

API Crude Inventories

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

WTI got the panic babounced off the outside trend line undr $20 (April) Friday in 5 waves from the recent highs to -4/8,  we got impulse from here, question is was that completing a C or 3 of something larger.  Math and crowd behavior tell the story right to the +2/8 and collapsed back to the break up and now through the channel, accelrating when Tenkan and 50 dma crossed.  Note 1.618 extension of previous emotive wave.

WTI D 3 20 2020

WTI accelerated lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to 16yr lows from here we see traction to work out from 3 waves  Key resistance is Kijun and 50wma confluence (green) which all failed after the violent spike up. Support channel and fib conflageration with MM 0 -8 and -1-8

WTI W 3 20 2020 

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Brent crudeoil longs were left exposed once it broke key support on Wednesday. Two weeks of selling had failed to trigger a reduction in the net-long. In wk to Jan 21 it even rose by 2.8k lots to reach a 15-mth high at 429k lots. The WTI long rose by 6.4k lots to 232k

Image

COT on commodities to Jan 21 shows the changes made by funds just before the coronavirus outbreak became the main market driver. The worrying news from China raised concerns about its potential impact on demand for key commodities from crudeoil to copper and soybeans

Image

Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

Image

NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

Image

NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

Image

NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

Image

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

Image

Image

Image
 
Image
 

DigStic Data @DigStic

Dec 11 2019 - Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.


Image
Image

Image
 

RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

 Image

Image
 

Cushing Oil Stocks


Image
 

NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

 Image

Exports

Image 

US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

Image

US consumers bought 371.15 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -12.06 mil YoY

Image 

US consumers spent $786.8 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is -$218.40 mil YoY.

 Image

US avg retail price for gasoline was $2.120 last week. That is -50.3 cents YoY

 Image

 

US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production Back -100kpd 0ff ATH 13.10mpd

 


 September Field Oil Production Hits a New High 12.463 mpd

Image

Image 

  ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

OILytics @OilyticsData

EIA Crude:

Crude: Crude build of +1.95MMBLs but a huge product draw of -9.6MM. Crude production back at 13.1MMBD while exports hit the 2nd highest level at 4.378MMBD. Small increase in Cushing stocks but we should see it reach capacity level soon with these contango levels.

Image

EIA Products:

EIA Products: A large product draw of -9.6MM, with gasoline leading at -6.18MM and disty at -2.9MM. Gasoline stocks are now lower y-o-y while disty near 5 yr lows. Falling demand in the coming weeks will lead to stockbuilds however

Image
 

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

Log in to comment
Discuss this article in the forums (3 replies).