Oil & Energy

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Crude oil futures fell again after recovering some from Coronavirus fears after EIA reported a small build in crude storage and draws in gasoline and distillate. The EIA said Crude oil inventories had a build of 415k bbls, Cushing drew -133kk bbls. US production record high of 13.00 mbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

>Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 2/19/20

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday Feb 26 2020 -10.30 ET
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude +452k +2000k +415k +1300k
Cushing +906k +888k -133k
+411k
Gasoline

-2691k

-2200k -1970k +74k
Distillate -2115k

-1700k

-635k -706k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization -1.5% to 87.9% Exp -0.5%
  • Production UNCH bpd to 13.00 mbpd (13.00 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

Global Crude Prices

 

API Crude Inventories

https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.?s=apicrudeoil&v=202002252142V20191105 2x" src="https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-api-crude-oil-stock-change.png?s=apicrudeoil&v=202002252142V20191105" alt="United States API Crude Oil Stock Change" style="color:White;">

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

WTI has bounced after 5 waves down from the Iran blowoff back over the tenkan, Resistance above is Kijun and 50dma. Math and crowd behavior tell the story after +2/8 and collapsed to 0/8 spit  From here question is was thos 5 waves completing?. Support is MM, Previous Lows and extensions.

WTI D 2 19 2020

WTI key in big picture is if can test the break of the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp move down.  From there we can mark this as correctional or something larger.  Key resistance is Kijun, Tenkan and 50wma confluence (green) which all failed afte the violent spike up. Support previous lows.WTI W 2 19 2020
 

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Brent crudeoil longs were left exposed once it broke key support on Wednesday. Two weeks of selling had failed to trigger a reduction in the net-long. In wk to Jan 21 it even rose by 2.8k lots to reach a 15-mth high at 429k lots. The WTI long rose by 6.4k lots to 232k

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COT on commodities to Jan 21 shows the changes made by funds just before the coronavirus outbreak became the main market driver. The worrying news from China raised concerns about its potential impact on demand for key commodities from crudeoil to copper and soybeans

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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DigStic Data @DigStic

Dec 11 2019 - Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.


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RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing Oil Stocks

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NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

US consumers bought 374.56 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +4.96 mil YoY

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US consumers spent $909.4 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +$59.40 mil YoY.

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US avg retail price for gasoline was $2.428 last week. That is +11.1 cents YoY

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US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production Back `at  ATH 13.00mpd

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 September Field Oil Production Hits a New High 12.463 mpd

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  ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

OILytics @OilyticsData

EIA Crude:

A small build of 0.4MMBBLs, much lower than market expectation. Crude production stays flat w-o-w as it struggles to move past 13MMBD while refinery runs slowly tick up to 16.2MMBD. Exports back at 3.5MMBD after last week's low numbers.

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EIA Products:

Total products drew -1.4MMBBLs as propane draw of -3MM and gasoline draw of -1.97 offset the other oil build of +3MM. Low gasoline yield helping the draw despite increased refinery runs.

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US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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