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Natural gas futures collaped under $2 ahead of the EIA report, last week we saw a bigger than expected draw of  -201 Bcf in natural gas storage. Ahead we focus on cold weather, LNG and Mexican exports and the winter outlook for the US.


us natgasl locations

A tricky shoulder season with Meteorologists expect an abnormally hot September but with Imelda just popping up expect variability. October is looking warm in Texas for now but cooler elsewhere. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date:  1/30/2020

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday Feb 6 2020 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual -  137 Bcf Prior -201 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast -133 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -129 to - 138 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -133 to - 131     @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -201 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level:2609 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 1994
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2410

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -129
  • DJ Survey -127
  • Reuters Survey -129
  • Platts Survey -126

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -122
  • Macquarie -135
  • TFS -127

Analysts

  • AgWxMan -
  • Refinitiv -131
  • Bart Roy -
  • Genscape -135
  • Gabe Harris -
  • WoodMac -131
  • Kidduff Report -122
  • Platts GWO - Pira -130
  • Robry825 -129
  • The Pit Boss -138
  • Norse -134
  • Andrea Paltry -136
  • Point Logic -133
  • Bespoke -130
  • Jacob Meisel -
  • Schneider Electric -133
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -129
  • Trade Mechanics -
  • EBW -133

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model - 125 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model:- 130 Bcf
“Last week’s brief cold spell brought the first bullish storage report of the year, but US-level temperatures climbed 6 F week on week, reducing the call on inventories,” - Platts (Bentek)

EIA Swap Market viaBrynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Production Watch

US natgas dry production

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US Dry Production For September was 93.95 Bcf/day. A new high.

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Natural Gas LNG Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi New High of 8.44  Jan 1 2020

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 ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

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May Natgas inflow and LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.

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For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

US August pipeline natgas exports and imports.

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Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Demand Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.

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Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Natural Gas continues to test the bottom trend line - but span out and could be a massive bull flag. how could this be possible? Meanwhile drifts from failed tenkan inside the babson lines and median channel   Recall it was rejected at the weekly tenkan last bounce, downside accelerated throuh October break up . Resistance from cloud down from impulse. Correcting the Murrey Math 1/8 and Wave iii or Alt C high. Support on downtrend line under 1.80 - not pretty


NG D 1 31 2020 

Natty nothing new. just more failure  - failed to get over old trendline break from impulse down after Natural Gas rally rejected at the 61.8% and the March highs with the tenkan and Kijun,   We got the Kijun/Tenkan cross after retesting the weekly channel break and the kiss of death.here we are at top of band a break opens up lower band. But take a peek at the daily flag possibilities if breaks tenkan.


NG W 1 31 2020
 

Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol

NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)

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Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016

NG COT 6 4 19

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • For Dec 17, 2019.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change +5292 longs +243 shorts +5049 net change 25% net long.
  • (Prior Weeks 24% 25% 27% 30% 36% 36% 28% 25% 25% 28% 33% 39% 42% 37% 30% 27% 29% 26% 27% 27% 29% 32% 33% 32% 37% 41% 45% :52%, 52%, 56%, 62%, 70% net long)

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Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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