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Natural gas futures fell ahead of the EIA report of a bigger than expected draw of -28 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Ahead we focus on cold weather, LNG and Mexican exports and the winter outlook for the US.


us natgasl locations

A tricky shoulder season with Meteorologists expect an abnormally hot September but with Imelda just popping up expect variability. October is looking warm in Texas for now but cooler elsewhere. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date:  11/21/2019

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday Nov 27 2019 12:00 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual -28 Bcf Prior -94 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast -26 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -14 to -36 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -33 to -34    @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -94 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3638 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 3132
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3698

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -27
  • DJ Survey -27
  • Reuters Survey -28
  • Platts Survey -25

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -24
  • Macquarie -31
  • TFS -24

Analysts

  • AgWxMan -
  • Refinitiv -32
  • Bart Roy -25
  • Genscape -
  • Gabe Harris -
  • WoodMac -29
  • Kidduff Report -
  • Platts GWO - Pira -29
  • Robry825 -14
  • The Pit Boss -26
  • Norse -21
  • Andrea Paltry -
  • Point Logic -25
  • Bespoke -28
  • Jacob Meisel -
  • Schneider Electric -
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -36
  • Trade Mechanics -
  • EBW -25

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model - 22 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model:-26 Bcf
“Similar to the cold front that hit the US last November that resulted in a record-breaking pull of 134 Bcf, strong heating demand this week is likely to start off this Winter season on a bullish note. Temperatures in the major demand regions are all between 9 and 10 degrees colder than normal, resulting in US residential and commercial demand gaining 10.3 Bcf/d week over week. Despite the colder temperature, power burn demand further contributed to this week’s tightness, increasing by 14 Bcf. As a result, inventories are forecast to stand at 3,644 Bcf, with the relatively short-lived surplus to the five-year average flipping from just 2 Bcf to a deficit of 54 Bcf.” - Platts (Bentek)

EIA Swap Market viaBrynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Production Watch

US natgas dry production

 

US Dry Production For August was 93.71 Bcf/day. A new high.

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Natural Gas LNG Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi New High of 7.38 on Nov 1

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 ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

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May Natgas inflow and LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.

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For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

US August pipeline natgas exports and imports.

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Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Demand Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.

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Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

Natural Gas rebalancing at the chikou with support at Kijun Tenkanafter gapped up over the daily cloud and 50 dma and ran all the way to the Murrey Math 1/8 and Wave iii or Alt C high. Support also  near lows and the cloud from underneath 

 MW NG D 11 8 19

Natural Gas rally so far rejected at the 61.8% and the March highs has got above the 50 wma to close at 3/8 confluence, with the tenkan and Kijun now support. The Kijun/Tenkan cross pumped the move after retesting the weekly channel break.

 MW NG W 11 8 19

 

Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol

NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)

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Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016

NG COT 6 4 19

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • For Nov 19, 2019.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change -8831 longs +41816 shorts -50647 net change 30% net long.
  • (Prior Weeks 36% 36% 28% 25% 25% 28% 33% 39% 42% 37% 30% 27% 29% 26% 27% 27% 29% 32% 33% 32% 37% 41% 45% :52%, 52%, 56%, 62%, 70% net long)

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Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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