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EIA cut it's world oil demand forecasts by 50K Bpd for 2019 and by 100K Bpd for 2020 world oil demand growth. EIA estimates production from OPEC was down 1.6 million b/d from August, the lowest level of OPEC production since November 2003 from disruptions in Saudi Arabia, down 4.0 million b/d from September 2018.

EIA STEO Oct 19

Highlights

  • EIA cuts world oil demand growth by 100K Bpd in 2020
  • EIA Cuts world oil demand growth by 50 K in 2019
  • Sees 1.3 million BPD production increase in 2020
  • Sees 0.84 million BPD year on year increase in 2019
  • EIA forecasts growth to level off in 2020 because of falling crude oil prices in the first half of the year and continuing declines in well-level productivity.
  • Sees US crude output to rise 1.27 million BPD to 12.26M BPD in 2019 versus 1.25M BPD increasing forecast last month
  • Sees US crude output to rise 910K BPD to 13.17M BPD in 2020 versus rise to13.23M BPD forecast last month
  • Sees US petroleum and other liquid fuel demands to rise 40K BPD to 20.54M BPD in 2019 versus 140K BPD increase forecast last month
  • Sees US petroleum and other liquid fuels demand to rise 220K BPD to 20.76 M BPD in 2020 versus increase to 20.85M BPD forecast last month.
  • OECD total oil stocks covered 60.6 days of supply at the end of September, down 0.1 day from the revised August level. Inventory coverage was 0.1 day less than a year ago and 1.4 days less than the five-year average. The year-on- five-year average deficit was larger than the 0.7-day deficit a month ago. 
  • Global petroleum demand for 2019 was left unchanged this month at 100.82 mmbpd this month, an increase of 0.84 mmbpd (0.8%) over an upwardly revised 2018 figure. Demand growth is expected to strengthen to 1.30 mmbpd (1.3%) to reach 102.12 mmbpd in 2019, a downward revision of 0.10 mmbpd from last month’s forecast.
  • Non-OPEC crude oil production growth of 2.07 mmbpd (3.3%) is forecast for 2019, a downward revision of 0.11 mmbpd from a month ago. Similar growth of 2.19 mmbpd (3.3%) is seen for 2020, a downward adjustment of 0.02 mmbpd from last month’s view. US output was increased 0.02 mmbpd to 12.26 mmbpd for 2019 but revised lower by 0.06 mmbpd to 13.17 mmbpd for next year.
  • Net of other changes, the call on OPEC crude oil that averaged 31.13 mmbpd in 2018 is seen declining 1.28 mmbpd to 29.85 mmbpd for 2019 and by 0.56 mmbpd to average 29.29 mmbpd in 2020.
  • OPEC crude oil production fell 1.55 mmbpd to average 28.23 mmbpd during September as Saudi Arabian output dropped 1.35 mmbpd to 8.50 mmbpd due to the September 14 drone attacks. Production from Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria and Angola also declined.
  • WTI crude oil prices averaged $65.06 per barrel in 2018. The 2019 price forecast was lowered $0.05 this month to $56.26 per barrel. The 2020 forecast was reduced $2.07 to $54.43 per barrel.
  • Brent crude oil averaged $71.19 in 2018. The Brent forecast for 2019 was lowered $0.02 this month to $63.37, a premium of $7.11 over WTI. Brent is expected to average $59.93 in 2020, down $2.07

Source: EIA

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