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Natural gas futures languished after EIA reported a higher than expected build of +112 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports and the winter outlook for the US.


us natgasl locations

A tricky shoulder season with Meteorologists expect an abnormally hot September but with Imelda just popping up expect variability. October is looking warm in Texas for now but cooler elsewhere. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date:  10/3/2019

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday Oct 10 2019 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +98 Bcf Prior +112 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast +103 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +98 to 106 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +101+102 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +112 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3205 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 2761
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3252

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +95
  • DJ Survey +
  • Reuters Survey +
  • Platts Survey +

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +
  • Macquarie +
  • TFS +

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +
  • Refinitiv +
  • Bart Roy +99
  • Genscape +
  • Gabe Harris +
  • WoodMac +
  • Kidduff Report +
  • Pira +
  • Robry825 +
  • The Pit Boss +
  • Norse +
  • Andrea Paltry +103
  • Point Logic +
  • Bespoke +
  • Jacob Meisel +
  • Schneider Electric +
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +
  • Trade Mechanics +
  • EBW +

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model +107 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model:+108 Bcf
“Volatility in modeled estimates have increased significantly in the run-up to October. The range in model outputs saw the widest range of potential estimates since the Winter, with the risk of a much stronger injection in the south-central salts offset by the risk for weaker injections in the East and Midwest regions.” - Platts (Bentek)

EIA Swap Market viaBrynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Production Watch

US natgas dry production

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US Dry Production For July was 91.29 Bcf/day. A new high.

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Natural Gas LNG Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi New High

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 ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

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May Natgas inflow and LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.

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For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

US July pipeline natgas exports and imports.

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Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Demand Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.

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Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

Natural Gas up corrected off first target at Murrey +3/8 testing the tenkan in iv of (C) or (1). then quickly into the cloud in 3 waves to bounce - either a iv or X i sequence (if fails lower)  Chikou rebalanced and Tenkan 50 dma resistance above held. 

MW NG D 10 4 19

Natural Gas spat the weekly 50wma and 3/8 confluence broke through the tenkan and Kijun to test previous channel to bounce at week's end.  Resistance MM & Kijun 50wma, support the weekly channel
 MW NG W 10 4 19

Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol

NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)

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Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016

NG COT 6 4 19

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • For Oct 1, 2019.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change -20,909 longs +24,601 shorts -45,510 net change 33% net long.
  • 33% net long (Prior Weeks 39% 42% 37% 30% 27% 29% 26% 27% 27% 29% 32% 33% 32% 37% 41% 45% :52%, 52%, 56%, 62%, 70% net long)

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Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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