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EIA reported for the third week in a row that crude oil inventories grew,  +3104k bbls with Gasoline and Distillate draws last week. Cushing smaller draw of -201k bbls. US production just off new record high with 12.40 mbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 9/25/19

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday Oct 2 2019 -10.30 ET
EIA Expected Prior EIA Prior API
Crude +3104k +1600k +2412k -5915k
Cushing -201k -235k +2356k
+373k
Gasoline

-228k

+400k +519k +2133k
Distillate -2418k

-1800k

-2978k -1741k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization -3.4% at 87.4% Exp -0.5%
  • Production -100  to 12.40 mbpd (12.50 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

Global Crude Prices

 

API Crude Inventories

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WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

After WTI gapped up through all resistance - through channel, cloud, 50dma, kijun and daily tenkan it collapsed to fill the gap, impulse meaning a C or (Y) complete - bullish case would be a developing X, Finished at outer Gann channel under +4/8  It reversed sharply under tanken to kijun as Chikou rebalanced.  

MW WTI D 9 27 19
 

WTI spat the weekly 61.8% and trend on the gap up. Reversed back under Tenkan, Kijun and 50wma (green) under the cloud after rejecting the break retest.  Clear 3 waves.  Key From Last Week " Expect more work and volatility. Watch Murrey confluence with the cloud acting."

 MW WTI W 9 27 19

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

COT on oil in wk to Sept 17: Brent long liquidation (-9k) and no change in short positions were the surprise reaction by speculators to last week's AramcoAttack. WTI meanwhile was bought (+12k) on the prospect of increased export

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COT on commodities in the wk to Sept. 24 saw funds extend their buying into a third week. The comb long reached 296k lots, from a record 38k low just three weeks ago. During this time all three sectors have been bought with short-covering in #natgas being the main contributor WTI and Brent #oil were both sold as the AramcoAttack surge cont. to deflate with the focus returning to the trade war and demand concerns. The combined net-long dropped below pre-attack levels to 468k lots. Biggest change was a one-third jump in WTI short selling.

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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DigStic Data @DigStic



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RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing Oil Stocks


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NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

US consumers bought 383.75 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +1.47 mil YoY

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US consumers spent $1,013.9 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is -$81.7 mil YoY.

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US avg retail price for #gasoline was $2.642 last week. That is -22.4 cents YoY

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US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production 12.40 off ATH 12.50 

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US Crude Oil Production by State and API at April 2019 via OILytics‏ @OilyticsData

Crude Production by state and API: Data updated until  April-19. L48 monthly production growth y/y at 1708KBD

Y-o-Y production growth (KBD):

  • API 25 and lower: +22
  • 25-30: +98
  • 30-35: +105
  • 35-40: +479
  • 40-45: +522
  • 45-50: +428
  • 50+: +60

** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

OILytics @OilyticsData

EIA Crude Imports:

rude imports down 671KBD to 6.4MMBD. Saudi imports surprisingly up +180KBD while Canada and Mexico provide 66% of total imports.

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EIA Products:

: Overall products down -1.7MM as distillate build -3MM but gasoline builds +0.5MM. Falling seasonal demand as we enter Q4, which will keep product stocks at the upper end of the 5 yr range.

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EIA Crude Stats::

Crude builds +2.4MMBBLs as production increases for the 1st time in 4 wks while refinery runs drop on maintenance. However, impossible to predict these numbers as the adjustment factor hits a multi-year high of 963KBD.

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US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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