Oil & Energy

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Oil had its largest percentage move since 1991 after the Saudi attack and fell sharply after Aramaco restored 70% production  EIA reported Crude oil inventories grew +1058k bbls with  Gasoline and Distillate builds last week. Cushing a smaller draw of -647k bbls. US production just off the new record high with 12.40 mbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 9/11/19

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday Sep 18 2019 -10.30 ET
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude +1058k -2500k -6912k +592k
Cushing -647k -812k -230k
-846k
Gasoline

+781k

-500k -2396k +1599k
Distillate +437k

-500k

-2538k +1998k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization -3.9% at 91.2% Exp +0.5%
  • Production UNCH to 12.40 mbpd (12.50 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

Global Crude Prices

 

API Crude Inventories

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WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

WTI spat down again through channel and cloud and through the 50dma, kijun and daily tenkan, Clear battle between specs and hedges. Signalling stairstepping ahead.  Finished inside the outer daily downtrend channel under the cloud. Watch for spits now with fear in the pricing.

 MW WTI D 9 13 19

WTI spat the weekly Kijun, 50wma (green) and a very flat Tenkan under the cloud after rejecting the weekly channel.  Key From Last Week " Expect more work and volatility. Watch Murrey confluence with the cloud acting as support, failure."

 MW WTI W 9 13 19

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

Crude Spec Length: via Oilytics @OilyticsData

Big jump in Brent (+52K) and WTI (+33K) net spec length contracts. We should see a continued increase in net spec length as it will be difficult to be short in this market with the current Saudi outage.

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CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

The speculative net-long in #WTI (-14k) and #Brent (+18k) crude #oil rose by 4k lots to 410k in the wk to Sept 3. The combine net long has hardly moved during the past three months with Brent struggling to break away from $60/b and WTI away from $55/b.

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COT on #commodities in the wk to Sept 3 when markets hit peak pessimism in response to the Sept 1 tariff hikes, HK and Brexit jitters. Developments which led to several false breakouts and subsequent reversals across several key markets from #oil and #copper to precious metals

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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DigStic Data @DigStic



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RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing Oil Stocks


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NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Exports Coming Back After NEW ATH.

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US Oil Imports Week Over Week

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US consumers spent $958.1 million dollars per day for #gasoline last week. That is -$179.5 mil YoY

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US consumers bought 375.44 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -24.99 mil YoY

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US avg retail price for gasoline was $2.552 last week. That is -28.9 cents YoY.

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US Oil Input Into Refineries Per Day

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 US Oil Field Production 12.40 Off ATH 12.50 

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US Crude Oil Production by State and API at April 2019 via OILytics‏ @OilyticsData

Crude Production by state and API: Data updated until  April-19. L48 monthly production growth y/y at 1708KBD

Y-o-Y production growth (KBD):

  • API 25 and lower: +22
  • 25-30: +98
  • 30-35: +105
  • 35-40: +479
  • 40-45: +522
  • 45-50: +428
  • 50+: +60

** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

OILytics @OilyticsData

EIA Crude Imports:

Imports jump +976KBD after last week's low number to reach 6.9MMBD. Bulk of the weekly jump came from Canada and Nigeria. Nigeria 4 wk average is higher by 350KBD y-o-y.

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EIA Products:

: Total products slightly down -0.17MM despite builds from gasoline (+0.8MM) and distillate (+0.44MM). Total and gasoline demand coming off its highs. Should see pressure on products in the coming weeks as refinery runs ramp up after maintenance.

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EIA Crude Stats::

US Crude stocks +1.06MMBBLs as refinery runs are down -788KBD due to refinery maintenance. Crude production flat for the 3rd week while exports >3MMBD for the 4th week. Exports should pick up in the coming weeks as buyers look for Saudi replacement barrels

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US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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