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Natural gas futures lifted to key level at week's end as Hurrican Dorian developed into a Cat 5 by Sunday. EIA reported as expected build of +84 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports and the winter outlook for the US.


us natgasl locations

Weather models contue to flip. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 8/29/2019

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday Sept 5 2019 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +84 Bcf Prior +60 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast +78 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +67 to 90 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +79+80  @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +59 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2797 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 2428
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2900

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +78
  • DJ Survey +80
  • Reuters Survey +78
  • Platts Survey +74

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +90
  • Macquarie +79
  • TFS +76

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +82
  • Refinitiv +79
  • Bart Roy +76
  • Genscape +82
  • Gabe Harris +82
  • WoodMac +72
  • Kidduff Report +79
  • Pira +74
  • Robry825 +76
  • NG Junkie +
  • Norse +58
  • Andrea Paltry +83
  • Point Logic +67
  • The Pit Boss +81
  • Jacob Meisel +80
  • Schneider Electric +84
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +71
  • Trade Mechanics +
  • EBW +74

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model +73 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model:+74 Bcf
“ Temperatures plummeted across the US for the final week of August, which averaged 5 degrees cooler overall, with the largest drop coming from the Northeast, which declined 8 degrees week over week. As a result, modeled power burn estimates for the Lower 48 came in more than 5 Bcf/d lower, which was only partially offset by a 1.1 Bcf/d gain in residential and commercial demand. Inventories are forecast to measure 2,931 Bcf, with the deficit to the five-year average levels shrinking from 100 to 93 Bcf. - Platts (Bentek)

EIA Swap Market viaBrynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Production Watch

US natgas dry production

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Natural Gas LNG Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi New High

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++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

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May Natgas inflow and LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.

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For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Demand Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

Natural Gas lifted as the tenkan crossed through the kijun and closed the week over the 50 dma and just under the daily cloud. The cloud  stands in the way for a rally despite record low futures longs the fails are swift. The 1-2 set up retested the flag has potential.

 MW NG D 8 30 19

Natural Gas closed over the tenkan a green spug but right at the channel above. A break here puts the flattening Kijun in focus. Its all about the weekly channel and the tenkan 

MW NG W 8 30 19
 

Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol

NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)

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Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016

NG COT 6 4 19

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • For Aug 27, 2019.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change -2289 longs +2764 shorts -5053 net change
  • 27% net long (Prior Weeks 29% 26% 27% 27% 29% 32% 33% 32% 37% 41% 45% :52%, 52%, 56%, 62%, 70% net long)

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Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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