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EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 8/17/17
Release Time: Thursday August 24 2017 10:30 ET

Ground Hog Day - Natural gas futures failed again at 3.00 and are back to 2.90 on bearish weather, with the upside risk Cheniere Train 4. The risk of TS Harvey on demand and production is being factored in by the market (see map below). South Central production has topped recent highs at 33.865 Bcf/d.  LNG feedgas demand and exports to Mexico are at or near all-time highs. Forecasts look normal for next week but nothing constructive.

Market Expectations

Market Expectations
Actual +43 Bcf Prior  +53 Bcf
Consensus Forecast  +45 Bcf
Cons. Range: +37 to +50 Bcf
EIA swap: +45 to +46 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +53 Bcf #TCNG

 EIA Storage Report

TS Harvey path to USGC refineries & transportation fuels infrastructure in the path. 

Source: Criterion Research

Bentek

  • Bentek S/D Model: + 47 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +49 Bcf

“The Aug. 18 storage week looks very similar to the previous storage week on a supply-demand basis, with total supply nearly flat to the previous week, and only a small increase in demand. Total demand estimates averaged less than 0.6 Bcf/d stronger than the previous week, with power burn demand increasing by an average 1 Bcf/d, while res-comm and industrial demand fell by an average 0.4 Bcf/d.

The largest gains in power burn demand were estimated in the Northeast (0.5 Bcf/d), Southeast (0.4 Bcf/d) and Texas (0.4 Bcf/d). The gains in these regions, as well as the smaller gains in the midcon market, midcon producing, and Rockies cell regions, were partially offset by a decrease in power burn in the Southwest (-0.5 Bcf/d) and Pacific Northwest (-0.2 Bcf/d), the only two regions to see average temperatures fall compared to the previous week. From a storage sample perspective, total US volumes were nearly flat to the previous week,” Bentek says.

Analysts Build Forecasts

  •  Wells Fargo: 50 Bcf
  • Jared Hunter: 50 Bcf
  • Andy Weissman, EBW: 49 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: 49 Bcf
  • Dow Jones Survey: 43 Bcf
  • Gabe Harris, WoodMac: 43 Bcf
  • SNL Survey: 43 Bcf
  • Genscape: 42 Bcf
  • Robry825: 42 Bcf
  • Bloomberg Energy (Flow) 42 Bcf
  • Criterion Research: 40 Bcf
  • Tim Evans, CITI: 37 Bcf

The Fundamental Edge with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Storage Futures weekly EIA storage futures 8/22 (EIA Swap) 

 Natural Gas Storage Futures

 Peak Electric Load Futures

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year & 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,082 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3,336 Bcf/Delta -254 Bcf (7.6%)
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3,027 Bcf/Delta +55 Bcf (1.8%)  

Further Energy Analysis http://www.oottnews.com/index.html

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, Criterion Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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