Oil & Energy

Google Ad

With Hurricane Barry in Focus EIA reported a larger than expected build of +65 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports. LNG Exports hit a new high this week as hub Futures climbed 10% off the low.


us natgasl locations

Weather models contue to flip. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 7/25/2019

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday August 3 2019 10:30 ET

Market Expectations 

  • Actual +65 Bcf Prior +36 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast +55 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +50 to 59 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +59 +60 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +36 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2569 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 2269
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2720

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report

Image

Image

 

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +59
  • DJ Survey +54
  • Reuters Survey +57
  • Platts Survey +52

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +67
  • Macquarie +57
  • TFS +57

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +
  • Bespoke +56
  • Bart Roy +57
  • Genscape +57
  • Gabe Harris +
  • WoodMac +58
  • Kidduff Report +61
  • Shura Li - Pira +52
  • Robry825 +61
  • NG Junkie +
  • Norse +51
  • Andrea Paltry +
  • Point Logic +55
  • The Pit Boss +55
  • Jacob Meisel +54
  • Schneider Electric +59
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +50
  • Trade Mechanics +
  • EBW +52

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model +50 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model:+53 Bcf
“ ” - Platts (Bentek)

EIA Swap Market viaBrynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

Image

Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

Image

Image

Image

Natural Gas Production Watch

US natgas dry production

Image

Natural Gas LNG Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi New High Last Month

Image

Image

++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

May Natgas inflow and LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.

Image

Image

Image

For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

Image

Image

Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

Image

Natural Gas Demand Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Image

Image

For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Image

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

much for a reversal. NG couldnt get above 50dma, 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey confluence. With record low futures longs the 1-2 set up in a bull flag has potential but flayling.

 MW NG D 7 26 19

Natural Gas no change, maintained the downward channel thwarted by the tenkan and the 2017-18 lows. Use the channel as your guide with Tenkan upside resistance at week's end. .

MW NG W 7 26 19

Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol

Nymex Nattygas atm termstructure July 31 2019

Image

NATURAL GAS OPTIONS Jul 30, 2019

  • ON Q[27] 2019 Vol= 0.3343 Strike= 2.15
  • ON U[25] 2019 Vol= 0.3445 Strike= 2.15
  • ON V[28] 2019 Vol= 0.3627 Strike= 2.25
  • ON X[25] 2019 Vol= 0.3696 Strike= 2.45
  • ON Z[26] 2019 Vol= 0.3953 Strike= 2.55
  • ON F[28] 2020 Vol= 0.4140 Strike= 2.55
  • ON G[25] 2020 Vol= 0.3993 Strike= 2.5
  • ON H[26] 2020 Vol= 0.2586 Strike= 2.3
  • ON J[27] 2020 Vol= 0.2337 Strike= 2.3
  • ON K[26] 2020 Vol= 0.2267 Strike= 2.3
  • ON M[25] 2020 Vol= 0.2137 Strike= 2.5
  • ON N[28] 2020 Vol= 0.2148 Strike= 2.5
  • ON Q[26] 2020 Vol= 0.2211 Strike= 2.3
  • ON U[25] 2020 Vol= 0.2218 Strike= 2.3
  • ON V[27] 2020 Vol= 0.2133 Strike= 2.3
  • ON X[24] 2020 Vol= 0.2220 Strike= 2.8

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016

NG COT 6 4 19

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • For July 16, 2019.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change -2599 longs +34679 shorts +37,238 net change
  • 29% net long (Prior Weeks 32% 33% 32% 37% 41% 45% :52%, 52%, 56%, 62%, 70% net long)

 

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

Log in to comment
Discuss this article in the forums (0 replies).