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With Hurricane Barry in Focus EIA reporting a larger than expected build of +62 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports. LNG Exports hit a new high this week as hub Futures climbed 10% off the low.


us natgasl locations

Weather models contue to flip. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 7/11/2019

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday July 18 2019 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +62 Bcf Prior +81 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast +62 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +61 to 78 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +60 +61 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +81 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2471 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 2196
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2561

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

 

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +67
  • DJ Survey +65
  • Reuters Survey +65
  • Platts Survey +65

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +66
  • Macquarie +65
  • TFS +68

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +
  • Bespoke +67
  • Bart Roy +
  • Genscape +64
  • Gabe Harris +63
  • WoodMac +65
  • Kidduff Report +71
  • Shura Li - Pira +64
  • Robry825 +70
  • NG Junkie +
  • Norse +65
  • Andrea Paltry +61
  • Point Logic +78
  • The Pit Boss +62
  • Jacob Meisel +63
  • Schneider Electric +71
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +62
  • Trade Mechanics +
  • EBW +

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model +70 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model:+68+ Bcf
“From the supply side of the equation, Texas production added 2 Bcf to the week, offsetting marginal declines out of the Northeast. Dominion Energy (DTI) reported a net injection of 7 Bcf for the week ended July 12 – 2 Bcf less than last week, and 1.8 Bcf weaker than the five-year average. ” - Platts (Bentek)

EIA Swap Market viaBrynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

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Natural Gas Production Watch

March US natgas dry production was 89.38 Bcf/day. Only +0.07 vs Feb. +9.23 Bcf/d YoY.

Natural Gas LNG Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi New High This Week

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++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

May Natgas inflow and LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.

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For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

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Natural Gas Demand Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

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Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

Natural Gas continued higher from last week's break of the mini reverse head and shoulders to power through the daily Tenkan (orange) and flattening Kijun above. NG is doing work over thee 50dma  and  2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math 3/8 recalc. With record low futures longs Barry has increased pressure..

MW NG D 7 12 19

Natural Gas continued it's rally off the lows under the 2017-18 lowing to closer over the Tenkan upside resistance at week's end. After Price caught up to Chikou stopped the fall 2 weeks agp and the balance fed the coil higher.

MW NG W 7 12 19

Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol

Nymex Nattygas atm termstructure May 10, 2019

Nymex Nattygas atm vol May 9, 2019

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016

NG COT 6 4 19

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • For July 9, 2019.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change -668  longs -16, 568 shorts +15,900 net change
  • 33% net long (Prior Weeks 32% 37% 41% 45% :52%, 52%, 56%, 62%, 70% net long)

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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