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The natural gas injection season is upon us. The EIA reported a build of +102 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports.


us natgasl locations

Weather models contue to flip. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 6/13/ 19

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time:Thursday June 20 2019 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +115 Bcf Prior +102 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast +104 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +97 to + 112 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +104 + 105@ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +102 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2088 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 1899
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2318

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. Option Vol
  8. DCOT Report

 

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +106
  • DJ Survey +104
  • Reuters Survey +107
  • Platts Survey +104

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +112
  • Macquarie +104
  • TFS +104

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +
  • Bespoke +104
  • Bart Roy +
  • Genscape +106
  • WoodMac +103
  • Kidduff Report +103
  • Shura Li - Pira +
  • Robry825 +111
  • NG Junkie +
  • Norse +97
  • Andrea Paltry +99
  • Point Logic +103
  • The Pit Boss +104
  • Jacob Meisel +104
  • Schneider Electric +106
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +103
  • Trade Mechanics +
  • EBW +103

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model +99 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model:+106 Bcf
“This Thursday’s report will extend the bearish streak of EIA reports that began this April deeper into Summer … week on week, the slightly stronger injection was primarily driven by declines in modeled power burn estimates in the southcentral region, where temperatures fell 2 degrees. Some of the week-on-week looseness was offset by power burn gains in the western US and weak Texas production. " - Platts (Bentek)

EIA Swap Market viaBrynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Production Watch

March US natgas dry production was 89.38 Bcf/day. Only +0.07 vs Feb. +9.23 Bcf/d YoY.

Natural Gas LNG Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi

++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

May Natgas inflow and LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.

For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

Natural Gas Demand Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

Natural Gas did rally at week's end to get over the daily Tenkan (orange) with a flattening Kijun above but much work to do . Well under the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math after came off the 50dma. With record low futures longs be wary as at some point pressure gives way..

MW NG D 6 14 19

Natural Gas closed back under the prev 100% also the 2017-18 low has continued to dribble lower. Upside resistance heavy with Tenkan and previous breaks proving too strong. When do the doldrums end?

MW NG W 6 14 19

Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol

Nymex Nattygas atm termstructure May 10, 2019

Nymex Nattygas atm vol May 9, 2019

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016

NG COT 6 4 19

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • For June 3, 2019.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change -1751 longs +40,077 shorts -42,522 net change
  • 37% net long (from last week 41% Prior Weeks 45% :52%, 52%, 56%, 62%, 70% net long)

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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