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Heading into FOMC EIA reported draws in crude and gasoline higher than what API reported. Cushing showed another build with 643k bbls.. US production actually fell for the second week in a row this week in the shale revolution  another100k off the record high to 12.20 mbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 6/12/19

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday June 19 2018 -10.30 ET
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude -3106k -2000k +2206k -812k
Cushing +643k +820k +2096k
+519k
Gasoline

-1692k

+1100k +764k +1458k
Distillate -551k

+1200k

-1000k -050k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization +0.7% to 94.0% Exp +0.9%
  • Production -100k to 12.20k bd (12.40 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

API Crude Inventories

Weekly Global Oil Prices

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

WTI reversed hard through the 61.8% Fib after breaking down  retesting the cloud and getting the 'kiss of death' on the Tenkan/kijun touch. The Daily ABC, B or ii) broke with impulse testing the breakup level Feb.  On the bounce we broke above the Tenkan at week's end but failed to close above it. Key going forward.

MW CL D 6 14 19

WTI spat hard to close the week at the weekly Kijun but failed to get over falling away, mark this as key resistance. Well under the 50wma (green) and Tenkan, We got the expected  retest there to bring chikou back in balance (blue) - watch Murrey confluence with the cloud acting as resistance.

MW CL W 6 14 19

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

7th consecutive drop for WTI spec length. The longs continue to flee the market and shorts gaining momentum. WTI long/short ratio at only 2.6:1 via OILytics ‏ @OilyticsData

Seven consecutive weeks of selling has now reduced the combined fund long in #Brent and #WTI crude oil by 41% to 421k lots, a near four months low. This before the #tankerattacks in the Gulf of Oman briefly boosted prices before declining again on demand fears. via Ole S Hansen ‏ @Ole_S_Hansen

WTI COT 6 4 19

OILytics ‏ @OilyticsData 

Ole S Hansen ‏ @Ole_S_Hansen

 

Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

Brent/WTI Vol May 31, 2019 NYMEX LO = CRUDE OIL OPTIONS ICE_North Sea BRN

via CommodityVol.com ‏ @CommodityImpVol 

Update of Brent & WTI Option Vol (Live Link)

WTI crude first, second third month atm vol May 31, 2019 NYMEX LO = CRUDE OIL OPTIONS

Atm vol: May 31, 2019 

NYMEX LO = CRUDE OIL OPTIONS NYMEX OH = NY HARBOR ULSD OPTION NYMEX OB = RBOB OPTIONS

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

DigStic Data @DigStic



 

RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

Cushing Oil Stocks

NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Exports Back Off ATH.

US Oil Imports Week Over Week

US Oil Input Into Refineries Per Day

US consumers spent $1,113.30 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is -14.40 mil YoY.

US avg retail price for gasoline was $2.670 last week. That is -20.90 cents YoY.

 US consumers bought 416.98 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +25.29 mil YoY

US Oil Field Production of 12.20 OFF ATH 12.40

US Crude Oil Production by State and API at February 2019 via OILytics‏ @OilyticsData

Crude Production by state and API: Data updated until Jan-19. L48 monthly production drops for the first time in 8 months.

Y-o-Y production growth (KBD):

  • API 25 and lower: -116
  • 25-30: -90
  • 30-35: +83
  • 35-40: +603
  • 40-45: +583
  • 45-50: +320
  • 50+: +82

** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

OILytics @OilyticsData

EIA Crude Imports by Country:

Crude imports drop slightly drop w-o-w to 7.5MMBD. Stable imports from Canada and Mexico who continue to provide roughly 60% of US imports. Ven imports again at 0, Saudi imports trend down while surprisingly Nigerian imports make a comeback.

EIA Product Stats:

Total Products built +2.7MM despite a gasoline and distillate draw as propane continues to build. Very strong gasoline demand numbers which are helping to absorb the increased production as refining runs ramp up. 

EIA Crude Stats:

Crude stocks draw -3.1MM as production drops 100KBD for the 2nd week in a row, while crude exports consistently over 3MMBD now. US refining runs continue to ramp up

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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