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In a volatile trading week EIA reported huge builds across the board, with a total crude and products build of 22, 414 k bbls the largest since 1990. The shale revolution continues as production rose 100k to record high 12.40 mbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 5/29/19

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday June 5 2018 -10.30 ET
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude +6771k -800k -282k +3545k
Cushing +1791k +1614k -16k
+1408k
Gasoline

+3205k

+500k +2204k +2696k
Distillate +4572k

+400k

-1615k +6314k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization +0.6% to 91.8% Exp +0.9%
  • Production +100k to 12.40k bd (12.40 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

API Crude Inventories

Weekly Global Oil Prices

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

Volatilty increased as WTIcontinued to break down after retesting the cloud and getting the 'kiss of death' on the Tenkan/kijun touch.  The Daily ABC  B or ii)  broke with impulse testing the breakup level Feb. Note the acceleration after the kiss of death Note the Adams theory in the last two spits. Energy came from coiling between the 50dma and the Tenkan and channel.

MW WTI d 5 31 19

WTI on the weekly cloud came off after touching the cloud twist, signifying all in - finished the week under the 50wma (green) and Tekan, rare to see Kijun Sen (pink) penetrated with chikou overshoot - so expect a retest there to bring chikou back in balance (blue) - watch Murrey confluence with the cloud acting as resistance.

WTI W 5 31 19

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

OILytics ‏ @OilyticsData

ICE and CTFC Oil Net Spec Length: 3rd weekly drop for Brent and WTI down for 5 weeks in a row. With the price collapse on Friday, most likely this trend will continue for next week as well. Brent shorts hitting a 9 week high even though the prompt market remains very tight.

Gasoil and RBOB Spec Length: Sharp drop in Gasoil net spec length (-27K), as the bulk of reduction comes from longs exiting. Net spec length near the 5 yr avg, despite the upcoming IMO regulation. RBOB net spec length down for the 2nd week despite shorts at seasonal lows.

Non Oil Spec Length: Spec length continues to exit Oil and Metals due to ongoing trade wars, but money continues to enter soft commodities like Corn due to weather-related supply outages. Huge short covering seen in the last few weeks.

Ole S Hansen ‏ @Ole_S_Hansen

 

Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

Brent/WTI Vol May 31, 2019 NYMEX LO = CRUDE OIL OPTIONS ICE_North Sea BRN

via CommodityVol.com ‏ @CommodityImpVol 

Update of Brent & WTI Option Vol (Live Link)

WTI crude first, second third month atm vol May 31, 2019 NYMEX LO = CRUDE OIL OPTIONS

Atm vol: May 31, 2019 

NYMEX LO = CRUDE OIL OPTIONS NYMEX OH = NY HARBOR ULSD OPTION NYMEX OB = RBOB OPTIONS

 

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

DigStic Data @DigStic



 

RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

Cushing Oil Stocks

NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Exports Back Off ATH.

US Oil Imports Week Over Week

US Oil Input Into Refineries Per Day

US consumers spent $1,113.00 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +4.6 mil YoY.

US avg retail price for gasoline was $2.807 last week. That is -13.3 cents YoY.

 US consumers bought 396.52 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -19.53 mil YoY

US Oil Field Production of ATH 12.40

US Crude Oil Production by State and API at February 2019 via OILytics‏ @OilyticsData

Crude Production by state and API: Data updated until Jan-19. L48 monthly production drops for the first time in 8 months.

Y-o-Y production growth (KBD):

  • API 25 and lower: -116
  • 25-30: -90
  • 30-35: +83
  • 35-40: +603
  • 40-45: +583
  • 45-50: +320
  • 50+: +82

** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

OILytics @OilyticsData

EIA Crude Imports by Country:

Crude imports jump +1.1MMBD to reach the highest level since Jan this year. Canada up +680KBD w-o-w while surprisingly Colombia up +453KBD to reach the highest since April 2017

EIA Product Stats:

Everything builds except Ethanol. Biggest Total inventory (22MM) build since 1990. Bearish product numbers despite refinery runs beingl 400KBD lower y-o-y. Distillate and Gasoline yields higher w-o-w adding to the stockpile.

EIA Crude Stats:

Some very bearish numbers as crude builds +6.7MM despite the increase in refinery runs and exports at 3.2MMBD. Surprise 1MMBD jump in imports (mainly from Canada) while adjustment factor 4 wk avg remains at +865KBD.

 

 

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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