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The natural gas injection season is upon us. The EIA reported a build of +85 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, as expected as temperatures are in the hot/cold sweet spot for users. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports.


us natgasl locations

Weather models contue to flip. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 5/9/19

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time:Thursday May 16 2019 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +106 Bcf Prior +85 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast + 105 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +95 to + 125 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +105 + 106 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +85 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1547 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 1419
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1850

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. DCOT Report

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +104
  • DJ Survey +101
  • Reuters Survey +104
  • Platts Survey +101

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +
  • Macquarie +106
  • TFS +99

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +
  • Bespoke +105
  • Bart Roy +116
  • Genscape +110
  • WoodMac +106
  • Kidduff Report +103
  • Shura Li - Pira +103
  • Robry825 +118
  • NG Junkie +
  • Norse +99
  • Andrea Paltry +104
  • Point Logic +103
  • The Pit Boss +105
  • Jacob Meisel +
  • Schneider Electric +125
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +115
  • Trade Mechanics +
  • Andy Wiessman +106

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model +95 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model:+104 Bcf
“ Those gains (gas fired) came primarily from the south-central region, where temperatures climbed 5 degrees week on week. Every other region saw cooler temperatures for the first week of May, bringing in an additional 19 Bcf of heating-load. The southcentral region saw the largest declines, with warmer temperatures pushing up modeled estimates for power burn.”- Bentek

EIA Swap Market viaBrynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

 via Trade Mechanic @Trade_Mechanics

 

Week 20 of the 18/19 withdrawal season. With 1107 bcf remaining, the remaining withdrawals are estimated to total +25 bcf.

Natural Gas Production Watch

US Feb natgas dry production was 89.18 Bcf/day. That is +9.83 YoY. +0.58 Bcf/day MoM.

Natgas production from Permian region. EIA projects 14.1 for April.

Natgas production from Appalachia region. EIA projects 31.5 for April.

Natural Gas LNG Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi

++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

April Natgas inflow and #LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.

April Natgas inflow and #LNG exported by US LNG facilities avg Bcf/day/month.

For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

Natural Gas Demand Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

Natural Gas after holding the previous 100% or the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math aclosed above the Kijun and 50 dma.With the Tenkan trying to go through the Kijun.

MW NG D 5 10 19

Natural Gas closed back over the prev 100% also the 2017-18 low and bounced. Upside resistance is heavy with Tenkan and previous breaks.

MW NG W 5 3 19

Natural Gas Options Structure - Volatilty (COT)

NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol

Nymex Nattygas atm termstructure May 10, 2019

Nymex Nattygas atm vol May 9, 2019

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • For May 7, 2019.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change +7128 longs +6,016 shorts +1,112 net change
  • 52% net long (from last week 52%, Prior Weeks:56%, 62%, 70% net long)

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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