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EIA reported a suprise build in crude oil storage of 5431k bbls last week. Gasoline had a draw of 1123k bbls with a build of just 84k bbls in distillates last week. The shale revolution continues BUT production fell 100k off record high to 12.10 mbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 5/8/19

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday 15 May 2018 -10.30 ET
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude +5431k -2100k -3963k +8632k
Cushing +1805k +1693k +821k
+2058k
Gasoline

-1123k

-300k -595k +567k
Distillate +84k

-1200k

-159k +2165k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization +1.6% to 90.5% Exp +0.9%
  • Production -100k to 12.10k bd (12.30 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

API Crude Inventories

Weekly Global Oil Prices

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

The daily WTi is a textbook in Ichimoku these last few weeks. reversed back inside the pennant and accelerated lower though the tenkan (orange) closing the week with a bounce off thr Kijun (pink) and lower pennant confluence. Then boom and through the Kijun to the channel and 50. Note the Adams theory in the last two spits. This week we have seen coiling between the 50dma and the Tenkan and channel.

MW WTI D 5 10 19

WTI from the weekly cloud above the 50wma (green) and Kijun Sen (pink) to bring chikou back in balance (blue) . Tenkan remains support which we spat the week with the 50wma- watch Murrey confluence with cloud above.

MW WTI W 5 10 19

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

OILytics ‏ @OilyticsData

Product Spec Length: Gasoil spec length shows the biggest weekly gains (+21K contracts) among the main oil contracts, as Urals crude quality issues might prompt some refinery run cuts in Europe.

Crude Spec Length: Diverging spec length in Brent and WTI. Brent spec length up 17 out of the last 18 wks. While WTI spec length is down for the 2nd wk in a row. Brent shorts continue to make new lows especially when the prompt physical market is so tight.

Ole S Hansen ‏ @Ole_S_Hansen

COT on Crude #oil in wk to May 7: Positioning continued to diverge with accelerated selling of #WTI (29k lots) being partly off-set by the continued buying of Brent (+2k). The behavior of Brent especially raising questions about the strength of the current correction.

During the last two reporting weeks #Brent sank 5.4% while the net-long increased by 10k lots. Last week most of the increase in the net-long was due to short-covering not long liquidation.

Funds cut bullish bets on commodities to a 40-month low in the wk to May 7. The 41% reduction to just 219k lots was broad-based with all sectors being sold in response to renewed trade war and demand concerns

 Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

Brent/WTI Vol May 2, 2019 NYMEX LO = CRUDE OIL OPTIONS ICE_North Sea BRN

via CommodityVol.com ‏ @CommodityImpVol 

Update of Brent & WTI Option Vol (Live Link)

WTI crude first, second third month atm vol May 2, 2019 NYMEX LO = CRUDE OIL OPTIONS

Atm vol: May 2, 2019 

NYMEX LO = CRUDE OIL OPTIONS NYMEX OH = NY HARBOR ULSD OPTION NYMEX OB = RBOB OPTIONS


 

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

DigStic Data @DigStic



RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

Cushing Oil Stocks

NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Exports Back Off ATH.

US Oil Imports Week Over Week

US Oil Input Into Refineries Per Day

US consumers spent $1,101.20 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is -48.9 mil YoY.

US avg retail price for gasoline was $2.866 last week. That is -0.007 cents YoY.

 US consumers bought 384.22 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -16.08 mil YoY

US Oil Field Production of 12.10 mbpd off ATH 12.30

US Crude Oil Production by State and API at February 2019 via OILytics‏ @OilyticsData

Crude Production by state and API: Data updated until Jan-19. L48 monthly production drops for the first time in 8 months.

Y-o-Y production growth (KBD):

  • API 25 and lower: -116
  • 25-30: -90
  • 30-35: +83
  • 35-40: +603
  • 40-45: +583
  • 45-50: +320
  • 50+: +82

** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

OILytics @OilyticsData

EIA Crude Imports by Country:

Crude imports at 6.7MM (-0.7MMBD w-o-w) as lower imports from Saudi and Iraq and imports from Ven drops to zero. US imports from outside N.America (ex Canada/Mexico) is now less than 2.3MMBD

EIA Product Stats:

Small draws in gasoline and disty mainly due to low refinery runs. Gasoline draw despite a spike in imports as demand remains supported. Difficult to remain bullish US products when US refineries will be running at 17MMBD+ soon.

EIA Crude Stats:

BLarger than expected crude draw of -3.9MMBBLs. Mainly due to adjustment factor reaching a record -856KBD (largest negative number in at least 12 years). Production back down again 100kbd, while US refinery runs remain low.

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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