Oil & Energy

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EIA reported a surpise draw in crude oil storage of 3963k bbls last week. Gasoline had a draw of 595k bbls with a draw of -159k bbls in distillates last week. The shale revolution continues BUT production fell just 100k off record high of 12.20 mbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 5/1/19

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday 8 May 2018 -10.30 ET
EIA Expected Prior EIA API
Crude -3963k -700k +9934k +2806k
Cushing +821k +693k +265k
+618k
Gasoline

-595k

-900k +917k -2833k
Distillate -159k

-1100k

-1307k -834k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization -0.3% to 88.9% Exp +0.9%
  • Production -100k to 12.20k bd (12.30 ATH)

 Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

API Crude Inventories

Weekly Global Oil Prices

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

The daily WTi is a textbook in Ichimoku these last few weeks. reversed back inside the pennant and accelerated lower though the tenkan (orange) closing the week with a bounce off thr Kijun (pink) and lower pennant confluence. Then boom and through the Kijun to the channel and 50. Note the zAdams theory in the last two spits.

MW WTI D 5 3 19

WTI from the weekly cloud above the 50wma (green) and Kijun Sen (pink) to bring chikou back in balance (blue) . Tenkan remains support - watch Murrey confluence with cloud above.

MW WTI W 5 3 19

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data: 

Despite the first weekly price drop in five and an ugly (bearish) weekly candle Brent crude oil cont. to be bought with the rising backwardation attracting buyers amid supporting fundamentals. WTI bulls meanwhile backed off and cut longs for the first time in ten weeks Via Ole S Hansen ‏ @Ole_S_Hansen

Hedge funds cut bullish #commodity bets to 367k lots, a seven week low, in the week to April 30 with 16 out of the 24 contracts being sold. Apart from WTI and #natgas the biggest casualties were found among the ags. Most noticeable

 Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

Brent/WTI Vol May 2, 2019 NYMEX LO = CRUDE OIL OPTIONS ICE_North Sea BRN

via CommodityVol.com ‏ @CommodityImpVol 

Update of Brent & WTI Option Vol (Live Link)

WTI crude first, second third month atm vol May 2, 2019 NYMEX LO = CRUDE OIL OPTIONS

Atm vol: May 2, 2019 

NYMEX LO = CRUDE OIL OPTIONS NYMEX OH = NY HARBOR ULSD OPTION NYMEX OB = RBOB OPTIONS


 

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

DigStic Data @DigStic



RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

Cushing Oil Stocks

NB: Check out Ron's great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Exports Back Off ATH.

US Oil Imports Week Over Week

US Oil Input Into Refineries Per Day

US consumers spent $1,201.00 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +33.00 mil YoY.

US avg retail price for gasoline was $2.897 last week. That is +0.052 cents YoY.

 US consumers bought 414.58 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +4.03 mil YoY

US Oil Field Production of 12.20 mbpd off ATH 12.30

US Crude Oil Production by State and API at February 2019 via OILytics‏ @OilyticsData

Crude Production by state and API: Data updated until Jan-19. L48 monthly production drops for the first time in 8 months.

Y-o-Y production growth (KBD):

  • API 25 and lower: -116
  • 25-30: -90
  • 30-35: +83
  • 35-40: +603
  • 40-45: +583
  • 45-50: +320
  • 50+: +82

** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

OILytics @OilyticsData

EIA Crude Imports by Country:

Crude imports at 6.7MM (-0.7MMBD w-o-w) as lower imports from Saudi and Iraq and imports from Ven drops to zero. US imports from outside N.America (ex Canada/Mexico) is now less than 2.3MMBD

EIA Product Stats:

Small draws in gasoline and disty mainly due to low refinery runs. Gasoline draw despite a spike in imports as demand remains supported. Difficult to remain bullish US products when US refineries will be running at 17MMBD+ soon.

EIA Crude Stats:

BLarger than expected crude draw of -3.9MMBBLs. Mainly due to adjustment factor reaching a record -856KBD (largest negative number in at least 12 years). Production back down again 100kbd, while US refinery runs remain low.

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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