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The natural gas injection season is upon us. The EIA reported a build of +85 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, as expected as temperatures are in the hot/cold sweet spot for users. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports.


us natgasl locations

Weather models contue to flip. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 4/25/19

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time:Thursday May 2 2019 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +85 Bcf Prior +123 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast + 86 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +80 to +93Bcf
  • EIA swap: +86 + 87 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +123 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1462 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 1334
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1778

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. DCOT Report

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +87
  • DJ Survey +82
  • Reuters Survey +87
  • Platts Survey +85

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +
  • Macquarie +80
  • TFS +88

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +89
  • Bespoke +81
  • Shane Bolling -
  • Genscape +80
  • WoodMac +82
  • Kidduff Report +93
  • Shura Li - Pira +89
  • Robry825 +93
  • NG Junkie 
  • Norse +93
  • Andrea Paltry +83
  • Point Logic +88
  • The Pit Boss +86
  • Jacob Meisel +82
  • Schneider Electric +89
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +92
  • Trade Mechanics +
  • Andy Wiessman +87

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model +81 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model:+83 Bcf
“ Those gains (gas fired) came primarily from the south-central region, where temperatures climbed 5 degrees week on week. Every other region saw cooler temperatures for the first week of May, bringing in an additional 19 Bcf of heating-load. The southcentral region saw the largest declines, with warmer temperatures pushing up modeled estimates for power burn.”- Bentek

EIA Swap Market viaBrynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

 via Trade Mechanic @Trade_Mechanics

 

Week 20 of the 18/19 withdrawal season. With 1107 bcf remaining, the remaining withdrawals are estimated to total +25 bcf.

Natural Gas Production Watch

US Feb natgas dry production was 89.18 Bcf/day. That is +9.83 YoY. +0.58 Bcf/day MoM.

Natgas production from Permian region. EIA projects 14.1 for April.

Natgas production from Appalachia region. EIA projects 31.5 for April.

Natural Gas LNG Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi

++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

April Natgas inflow and #LNG exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.

April Natgas inflow and #LNG exported by US LNG facilities avg Bcf/day/month.

For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

Natural Gas Demand Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

Natural Gas closed back over the previous 100% or the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math after failing to run getting just over the tenkan but again no momentum. Above ijun, ma and 50 dma.

MW NG D 5 3 19

Natural Gas closed back over the prev 100% also the 2017-18 low and bounced but as daily also showed a lack of impulse both ways. Upside resistance is heavy with Tenkan and previous breaks.

MW NG W 5 3 19

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • For Apr 30, 2019.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
  • WoW change -11,358 longs +16,955 shorts -28,313 net change
  • 52% net long (from last week 56%, Prior Weeks: 62%, 70% net long)

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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