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The natural gas injection season is upon us. The EIA reported a build of +92 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, as expected as temperatures stayed low after the depths of the extreme polar vortex cold lingered. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports.


us natgasl locations

Weather models were horribly inaccurate as the future's price makes clear for 2018/2019. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 4/18/19

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time:Thursday April 25 2019 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual  +92 Bcf Prior +92 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast +92 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +83 to +101 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +90 +91 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +92 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1247 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 1304
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1661

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. DCOT Report

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +92
  • DJ Survey +88
  • Reuters Survey +91
  • Platts Survey +90

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +91
  • Macquarie +95
  • TFS +90

Analysts

  • AgWxMan -
  • Bespoke +92
  • Shane Bolling -
  • Genscape +100
  • WoodMac +95
  • Kidduff Report +94
  • CJS Analytics -
  • Shura Li - Pira +95
  • Robry825 +102
  • 125WMARION -
  • NG Junkie -
  • Norse +86
  • Andrea Paltry +90
  • Point Logic +93
  • The Pit Boss +92
  • Jacob Meisel +96
  • Schneider Electric +
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +99
  • Trade Mechanics +
  • Andy Wiessman +91

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model + Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model:+ Bcf
“ Spring has arrived abruptly for much of the East and Midwest, where early April balances are running much looser than usual. US temperatures warmed up 7 degrees week over week, reducing total demand by 8.5 Bcf/d, mostly in residential-commercial. Production, which has increased for the previous three storage weeks in a row, lost a bit of its momentum this week, dropping 0.5 Bcf/d. The majority of production declines came from the Southeast cell region, which contributed 3 Bcf less week over week, with a smaller drop of 1 Bcf from the Northeast. Regardless of how production may underperform, any potential tightness is offset by heating load plummeting in the past two weeks. Modeled estimates for total US demand are at 72.8 Bcf/d, which is about 62 percent of the late-season peak in early April, when demand averaged 116.7 Bcf/d.”- Bentek

EIA Swap Market via Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

 via Trade Mechanic @Trade_Mechanics

Week 20 of the 18/19 withdrawal season. With 1107 bcf remaining, the remaining withdrawals are estimated to total +25 bcf.

Natural Gas Production Watch

The disaster continues to unfold in the Permian via @BrynneKKelly

Natgas production from Permian region. EIA projects 14.1 for April.

Natgas production from Appalachia region. EIA projects 31.5 for April.

Natural Gas LNG Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi

ALERT  Earlier there was a new high for US NG for LNG.Natgas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi combined for Mar 19 was 5.58 Bc 

++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch

via RonH Energy

Natural Gas Canada Import Watch

via RonH Energy

Natural Gas Demand Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

Natural Gas broke the 100% or the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math BUT hasn't runaway. Topside nailed by Tenkan for now - has got the breakdown and 50 dma - so back we came.

MW NG D 4 19 19

Natural Gas closed under 100% also the 2017-18 low however with a lack of impulse. Upside reistance is heavy with Tenkan and previous breaks.

MW NG W 4 19 19

 

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • For Apr 16, 2019.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders 
  • WoW change -3,562 longs +32,538 shorts -36100 net change
  • 62% net long (from 70% net long)

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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