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The EIA reported a draw of -36 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, as expected as temperatures stayed low after the depths of the extreme polar vortex cold lingered. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports. 


us natgasl locations

Weather models have been horribly inaccurate as the future's price makes clear for 2018/2019. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 3/21/19

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday March 28 2019 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual -36 Bcf  Prior  -47 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -33 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -29 to - 44 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -30 to - 32 @ CT 15.13

R=Revised. The reported revision caused the stocks for March 08, 2019 to change from 1,186 Bcf to 1,190 Bcf. As a result, the implied net change between the weeks ending March 01 and March 08 changed from -204 Bcf to -200 Bcf.

Last Week's Report -47 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1143 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 1458
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1699

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. DCOT Report 

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

 

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -41
  • DJ Survey -38
  • Reuters Survey -40
  • Platts Survey -33

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -49
  • Macquarie -32
  • TFS -37

Analysts

  • AgWxMan -
  • Jacob Meisel -34
  • Shane Bolling -
  • Genscape -35
  • WoodMac - 35
  • Kidduff Report -44
  • CJS Analytics -
  • Shura Li - Pira -34
  • Robry825 -31
  • 125WMARION -
  • NG Junkie -
  • Norse -37
  • Andrea Paltry -33
  • Point Logic -39
  • RonH - 
  • RBN Energy -
  • Schneider Electric -29
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -40
  • Trade Mechanics -39
  • Andy Wiessman -37

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  - 28 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: - 36 Bcf
“As Winter winds down, residential and commercial demand lost another 15 Bcf this week, with a corresponding 57 percent decrease in sample activity, from an overall withdrawal of 30 to 13 Bcf. The glimmer of production gains spread across the Northeast, Texas and Southeast cell regions, combined with weakening heating demand, loosened up fundamentals for the home stretch of Winter. Average US production increased for the first storage week in a month, from 82.7 to 83.2 Bcf/d, adding 4 Bcf to the supply side of this week’s equation. "- Bentek

EIA Swap Market via  Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

 Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

 

via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

 via Trade Mechanic @Trade_Mechanics

Week 19 of the 18/19 withdrawal season. With 1143 bcf remaining, the remaining withdrawals are estimated to total -40 bcf.

 

Natural Gas Production  Watch 

 

Natgas production from Permian region in Feb, 13.6 Bcf/day, was +0.2 Bcf/d vs Jan. EIA projects 14.1 for April.

Natgas production from Appalachia region sets new high in Feb of 30.8 Bcf/day. EIA projects 31.5 for April.

Natural Gas LNG Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi

ALERT  Earlier there was a new high for US NG for LNG.Natgas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi combined for Mar 19 was 5.58 Bc 

 

 ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit our LNG Weekly Here

 

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch 

via RonH Energy

Natural Gas Canada Import Watch 

via RonH Energy


Natural Gas Demand  Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

Natural Gas after holding the 100% or the 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey Math BUT Topside has got the breakdown and 50 dma - so back we come


MW NG D 3 22 19

Natural Gas on the weekly view shows the resistance clearly the weekly cloud and previous 61.8% Fibbo converging with the breakdown. Downside clear with 100% also the 2017-18 low

 MW NG W 3 22 19

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • For Mar 19, 2019.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders 
  • WoW change +10,580 longs  +4,225 shorts +6,335 net change 
  • 76% net long

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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