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The EIA reported a draw of - 166 Bcf in natural gas storage last week, less than expected as temperatures continued to rise from the depths of the extreme polar vortex cold. Ahead we focus on LNG and Mexican exports. 



us natgasl locations

Weather models have been horribly inaccurate as the future's price makes clear for 2018/2019. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 2/21/19

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday February 28 2019 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual -166 Bcf  Prior  -177 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -172 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -161 to - 179 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -174 to - 175 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -177 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1705 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 1778
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2,067

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. DCOT Report 

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

 

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -172
  • DJ Survey -170
  • Reuters Survey -171
  • Platts Survey -171

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -173
  • Macquarie -172
  • Raymond James -
  • TFS -171

Analysts

  • AgWxMan -
  • Jacob Meisel -174
  • Shane Bolling -
  • Genscape -169
  • WoodMac -173
  • Kidduff Report -179
  • CJS Analytics -
  • Shura Li - Pira -175
  • Robry825 -161
  • 125WMARION -
  • NG Junkie -
  • Norse -172
  • Andrea Paltry -176
  • Point Logic -169
  • RonH - 
  • RBN Energy -
  • Schneider Electric -175
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -171
  • Trade Mechanics -175
  • Andy Wiessman - 170

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  - 180 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: - 172 Bcf
“Temperatures cooled down across every region, led by a 12-degree drop in the south-central. As a result, modeled estimates for residential and commercial demand added 48 Bcf of demand week over week, with additional tightness from 22-Bcf gains in power burn. Production out of Texas declined from 21.29 to 20.70 Bcf/d week over week, which was offset by gains in production from the Northeast and Southeast cell regions. Regionally, most of the tightness this week was split between the Northeast, Southeast and Midwest, where the return of colder weather spiked heating-demand. "- Bentek

EIA Swap Market via  Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

 Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

 

via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

 

 

Natural Gas Production  Watch 

NG Production 2 28 19 

Natural Gas LNG Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus

 ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit our LNG Weekly Here

 

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

NG Mexican Exports 2 28 19

Natural Gas Canada Import Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 NG Canada Imports 2 28 19

Natural Gas Demand  Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG D 2 22 19

MW NZDUSD W 2 22 19

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • Delayed  due to Government Shutdown - for Feb 5, 2019.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders 
  • WoW change -19,387 longs  +751 shorts -20138 net change 
  • 84% net long

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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