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Last week we saw the biggest draw of the season as cold weather continued to envelop the U.S. with the Polar Vortex breaking records. The EIA reported a draw of - 78 Bcf in natural gas storage this week. 


us natgasl locations

Weather models have been horribly inaccurate as the future's price makes clear for 2018/2019. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 2/7/19

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday February 14 2019 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual - 78 Bcf  Prior  -237 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -83 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -72 to - 102 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -82 to - 83 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -237 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1882 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 1912
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2,215

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. DCOT Report 

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

 

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -81
  • DJ Survey -79
  • Reuters Survey -85
  • Platts Survey -78

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -81
  • Macquarie -84
  • Raymond James -
  • TFS -78

Analysts

  • AgWxMan -
  • Jacob Meisel -82
  • Shane Bolling -
  • Genscape -85
  • WoodMac -82
  • Kidduff Report -77
  • CJS Analytics -
  • Shura Li - Pira -80
  • Robry825 -86
  • 125WMARION -
  • NG Junkie -
  • Norse -
  • Andrea Paltry -
  • Point Logic -84
  • RonH - 
  • RBN Energy -
  • Schneider Electric -106
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -81
  • Trade Mechanics -81
  • Andy Wiessman - 83

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  -72 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: -73 Bcf
“Temperatures increased double-digits in every cell region except for Mountain and Pacific week over week, drastically reducing heating load. Modeled estimates for residential and commercial demand dropped from 60.7 to 41.3 Bcf/d, accounting for 135 Bcf of the change relative to last week’s big draw, with additional bearishness from industrial and powerburn, which lost a combined 48 Bcf of demand."- Bentek

EIA Swap Market via  Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

 Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

  

via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

 

Natural Gas Production  Watch 

NG Production Jan 2019 

Natural Gas LNG Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus

 ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit our LNG Weekly Here

 

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Mexico Exports 2 7 19

Natural Gas Canada Import Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 Canada NG Imports 2 7 19

Natural Gas Demand  Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG D 2 9 19

MW NG W 2 9 19

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • Delayed  due to Government Shutdown - for Jan 8, 2018.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders 
  • WoW change -12,641 longs -6431 shorts -6210 net change 
  • 81% net long

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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