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This week is the biggest draw of the season as cold weather continued to envelop the U.S. with the Polar Vortex breaking records. Last week the EIA reported a draw of - 237 Bcf in natural gas storage..


us natgasl locations

Weather models have been horribly inaccurate as the future's price makes clear for 2018/2019. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 1/31/19

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday February 7 2019 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual - 237 Bcf  Prior  -173 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -245 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -222 to - 273 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -250 to - 251 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -173 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,197 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 2, 211
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2,525

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. DCOT Report 

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

 

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -247
  • DJ Survey -245
  • Reuters Survey -245
  • Platts Survey -249

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -222
  • Macquarie -248
  • Raymond James -
  • TFS -253

Analysts

  • AgWxMan -
  • Jacob Meisel -253
  • Shane Bolling -
  • Genscape -241
  • WoodMac -246
  • Kidduff Report -253
  • CJS Analytics -
  • Shura Li - Pira -256
  • Robry825 -238
  • 125WMARION -
  • NG Junkie -
  • Norse -
  • Andrea Paltry -264
  • Point Logic -243
  • RonH - 
  • RBN Energy -241
  • Schneider Electric -
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -235
  • Trade Mechanics -273
  • Andy Wiessman - 245

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  -259 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: -250 Bcf
"Modeled estimates for res-com demand in the Midwest alone added 40 Bcf of demand to the week. Overall, there was an estimated 54 Bcf of additional res-com demand and power burn also increased 15 Bcf, with nearly half coming from the Southeast cell region. The Southeast cell region increased net flows to the Midwest and Northeast by 1.1 and 0.7 Bcf/d, respectively. The salt domes, which have trended well above the five-year, weather adjusted average for almost all of withdrawal season, switched to a very tight withdrawal relative to what we typically see in these temperature ranges."- Bentek

EIA Swap Market via  Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

 Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

  

via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

 

Natural Gas Production  Watch 

NG Production Jan 2019 

Natural Gas LNG Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus

 ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit our LNG Weekly Here

 

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Mexico Exports 2 7 19

Natural Gas Canada Import Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 Canada NG Imports 2 7 19

Natural Gas Demand  Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG D 2 1 19

MW NG W 2 1 19

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

  • Delayed  due to Government Shutdown - for Dec 31, 2018.
  • Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders 
  • WoW change -2,533 longs -5622 shorts -+3129 net change 
  • 80% net long

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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