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Cold weather continues to envelop the U.S. Last week the EIA reported a draw of - 173 Bcf in natural gas storage with weather models continuing to be confused. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments.



us natgasl locations

Weather models have been horribly inaccurate as the future's price makes clear for 2018/2019. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 1/24/19

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday January 31 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual -  173 Bcf  Prior  -163 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -192 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -182 to - 202 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -184 to - 185 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -161 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,533 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 2610
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2860

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. DCOT Report 

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -195
  • DJ Survey -194
  • Reuters Survey -189
  • Platts Survey -197

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -182
  • Macquarie -185
  • Raymond James -
  • TFS -195

Analysts

  • AgWxMan -
  • Jacob Meisel -189
  • Shane Bolling -
  • Genscape -186
  • Gabe Harris -
  • Kidduff Report -202
  • CJS Analytics -
  • Shura Li - Pira -191
  • Robry825 -184
  • 125WMARION -
  • NG Junkie -
  • Norse -202
  • Andrea Paltry -191
  • Point Logic -
  • RonH - 
  • RBN Energy -
  • Schneider Electric -
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -
  • Trade Mechanics -201
  • Andy Wiessman - 188

NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  -201 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: -202 Bcf
"Modeled estimates for US residential and commercial demand added 33 Bcf week over week, with 30 Bcf coming from the midcontinent market alone. While the majority of the tightness was due to the added heating demand, the Northeast also saw some of the largest week-over-week production drops since last January, likely indicating some effect due to freeze-offs. The balancing item for the week is forecast to measure -15 Bcf, in line with the highly negative balancing items seen over the previous two weeks, since the onset of colder weather "- Bentek

EIA Swap Market via  Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

 Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

  

via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

 

Natural Gas Production  Watch 

NG Production Jan 2019

 

Natural Gas LNG Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus

 ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit our LNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas Import Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

Natural Gas Demand  Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG D 1 18 19

MW NG W 1 18 19

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

With the Government Shutdown CFTC is not releasing COT

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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