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Cold weather continues to envelop the U.S. Last week the EIA reported a draw of - 163 Bcf in natural gas storage with weather models continuing to be confused. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments.


us natgasl locations

Weather models have been horribly inaccurate as the future's price makes clear for 2018/2019. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 1/17/19

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday January 24 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual - 163 Bcf  Prior  -81 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -157 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -151 to -166 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -160 to - 161 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -81 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,533 Bcf
  • Storage 2018/Same Week: 2610
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2860

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. DCOT Report 

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -151
  • DJ Survey -152
  • Reuters Survey -154
  • Platts Survey -158

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -151
  • Macquarie -158
  • Raymond James -
  • TFS -161

Analysts

  • AgWxMan -
  • Jacob Meisel -162
  • Shane Bolling -
  • Genscape -158
  • Gabe Harris -159
  • Kidduff Report -151
  • CJS Analytics -
  • Shura Li - Pira -166
  • Robry825 -158
  • 125WMARION -
  • NG Junkie -
  • Norse -157
  • Andrea Paltry -165
  • Point Logic -152
  • RonH - 
  • RBN Energy -159
  • Schneider Electric -
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -152
  • Trade Mechanics -158
  • Andy Wiessman - 157

 NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  -158 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: -162 Bcf

“ The colder weather and increased heating-load nearly doubled overall sample withdrawals from 49 to 97 Bcf. The tighter sample was mostly split between the Northeast and south-central regions – the only two cell regions that recorded lower-than-normal temperatures this past week. Although the salt dome sample flipped direction this week, the net withdrawal is still more than 13 Bcf lighter than the average withdrawal seen between 45 and 50 degrees over the past five-years. Every sample injection or withdrawal in the salts since November has been around one standard deviation (or higher) than the five-year, weather-adjusted average" - Bentek

EIA Swap Market via  Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

 Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

  

via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Production  Watch 

 

Natural Gas LNG Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus

 ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit our LNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas Import Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

Natural Gas Demand  Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG D 1 18 19

MW NG W 1 18 19

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

With the Government Shutdown CFTC is not releasing COT

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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