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The EIA reported a draw of -81 Bcf in natural gas storage last week with weather models continuing to be confused. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments. 


us natgasl locations

Weather models have been horribly inaccurate as the future's price makes clear for 2018/2019. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 1/10/19

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday January 17 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual - 81 Bcf  Prior  -87* Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -82 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -55 to -92 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -81 to - 80 @ CT 15.13

C=Reclassification. *Reclassifications from working gas to base gas resulted in decreased working gas stocks of approximately 4 Bcf in the Mountain region for the week ending January 4, 2019. The implied flow for the week is a decrease of 87 Bcf to Lower 48 working gas stocks. (See Notes and Definitions for more information on "implied flow.")

Last Week's Report -87 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,705 Bcf
  • Storage 2017/Same Week: 3155
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3265

TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format

  1. EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
  2. LNG and Export Warch
  3. Natural Gas Import Watch
  4. Natural Gas Demand Watch
  5. Nuke Watch
  6. Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
  7. DCOT Report 

EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch


EIA Storage Report

US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -50
  • DJ Survey -
  • Reuters Survey -77
  • Platts Survey -

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -55
  • Macquarie -82
  • Raymond James -
  • TFS -73

Analysts

  • AgWxMan -
  • Jacob Meisel -83
  • Shane Bolling -
  • Genscape -84
  • Gabe Harris -84
  • Kidduff Report -69
  • CJS Analytics -
  • Shura Li - Pira -71
  • Robry825 -70
  • 125WMARION -
  • NG Junkie -
  • Norse -81
  • Andrea Paltry -84
  • Point Logic -86
  • RonH - 
  • RBN Energy -
  • Schneider Electric -
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -92
  • Trade Mechanics -84
  • Andy Wiessman - 85

 NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com - some weeks they may not made available.

Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  -68 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: -  Bcf

“ With the holidays wrapped up, demand this past week was kept in check by the unseasonably warm weather. Almost every region was a few degrees warmer than normal, particularly across the southeastern and central US, which gained 7 and 13 degrees, respectively. As a result, the total US lost 22 Bcf of modeled residential and commercial demand week over week, split near evenly among the Midwest, Rockies, Pacific and Southeast regions. Only the Northeast dropped 5 degrees, gaining 12 Bcf of demand that couldn’t offset the rest of the Lower 48 gains. Inventories are expected to stand at 2,540 Bcf, with the deficit to the five-year average showing a significant drop for the third week in a row, at -11 percent.”  - Bentek

EIA Swap Market via  Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

 Natural Gas Storage Analysis

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

  

via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly

Natural Gas Production  Watch 

Natural Gas LNG Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus

 ++Charts via RonH @RonH999 - Visit Ron for daily updates

For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit our LNG Weekly Here

Natural Gas Import Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

Natural Gas Demand  Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here

Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999  

Natural Gas Nuke Watch 

via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG D 1 10 19

MW NG W 1 10 19

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

With the Government Shutdown CFTC is not releasing COT

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave

From the Traders Community Research Desk

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