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The EIA reported a draw of -20 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Inventories are expected to peak this year at 3.24 Tcf: 14% below the 5-year average, the lowest level in at least a decade. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments. 


us natgasl locations

From here weather models focus on cold meaning an outside number is a big chance. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Technically after holding the weekly support $2.522 is, the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994 we broke the weekly triangle and $3.50, the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522.  With that basing and energy we moved higher to almost $5.00, note the KnovaWave confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology inside. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 12/28/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Friday January 4 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual - 20 Bcf  Prior  -48 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -43 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -27 to  75 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -42 to - 43 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -48 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,773 Bcf
  • Storage 2017/Same Week: 3470
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3493

Weather Watch

 


EIA Storage Report

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG D 12 28 18

MW NG W 12 28 18

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

+8196 longs +14815 shorts -6619 net change 82% net long (from 86% net long - Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

U.S. Natural Gas Use By State

++Charts via RonH @RonH999

Platts Analytics (Bentek) Models 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  -  Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: - Bcf

 Frigid temperatures across the East caused most of the tightness this week as regional residential and commercial demand climbed to levels not seen since February. Production offered little relief as growth out of the Northeast and Texas stuttered, cutting out 7 Bcf of supply. Sample activity for the total US reflected the spike in demand, with overall withdrawals jumping 70 percent from 46 to 78 Bcf, largely from the North and Southeast,” Bentek

Natural Gas Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -50
  • DJ Survey -
  • Reuters Survey -58
  • Platts Survey -

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -75
  • Macquarie -
  • Raymond James -
  • TFS -

Analysts

  • AgWxMan -
  • Jacob Meisel -
  • Shane Bolling -
  • Genscape -
  • Gabe Harris -
  • Kidduff Report -51
  • CJS Analytics -
  • Shura Li - Pira - 
  • Robry825 -29
  • 125WMARION -
  • NG Junkie -
  • Norse -50
  • Andrea Paltry -41
  • Point Logic -52
  • RonH - 
  • RBN Energy -31
  • Schneider Electric -
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -54
  • Trade Mechanics - 49
  • Andy Wiessman - 

 

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality....

@BrynneKKelly

 

 

 

 

      RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas Production for the month

 

Natgas inventory for the week

Natural gas weekly inventory change of -20 Bcf is +87 vs 5yr avg.

 

 

 

   

 Natural Gas pwCDD + gwHDD for EIA Report Week

 

 

Natural Gas for LNG for EIA Report Week

Natgas Pipeline Flows, Exports and Receipts

Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts - Incl Rover and Sabine - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

Nuclear Output

Nuclear Output - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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