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The EIA reported a draw of -141 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Inventories are expected to peak this year at 3.24 Tcf: 14% below the 5-year average, the lowest level in at least a decade. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments.

us natgasl locations

From here weather models focus on cold meaning an outside number is a big chance. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Technically after holding the weekly support $2.522 is, the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994 we broke the weekly triangle and $3.50, the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522.  With that basing and energy we moved higher to almost $5.00, note the KnovaWave confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology inside. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 12/13/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday December 20 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual - 141 Bcf  Prior  -77 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -136 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -118 to 153 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -140 to -142 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -77 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,914 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3636
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3637

Weather Watch


EIA Storage Report

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG D 12 14 18

MW NG W 12 14 18

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

-5077 longs +5051 shorts -10128 net change 86% net long (from 87% net long - Highest Longs Ever (since 2006) )



Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

U.S. Natural Gas Use By State

++Charts via RonH @RonH999

Platts Analytics (Bentek) Models 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  -  150 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: -  147 Bcf

 Frigid temperatures across the East caused most of the tightness this week as regional residential and commercial demand climbed to levels not seen since February. Production offered little relief as growth out of the Northeast and Texas stuttered, cutting out 7 Bcf of supply. Sample activity for the total US reflected the spike in demand, with overall withdrawals jumping 70 percent from 46 to 78 Bcf, largely from the North and Southeast,” Bentek

Natural Gas Storage Forecasts


  • Bloomberg Survey -134
  • DJ Survey -132
  • Reuters Survey -132
  • Platts Survey -145

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -118
  • Macquarie -138
  • Raymond James -140
  • TFS -145


  • AgWxMan -
  • Jacob Meisel -133
  • Shane Bolling -
  • Genscape -138
  • Gabe Harris -137
  • Kidduff Report -144
  • CJS Analytics -
  • Shura Li - Pira - 153
  • Robry825 -133
  • 125WMARION -
  • NG Junkie -
  • Norse -138
  • Andrea Paltry -143
  • Point Logic -130
  • RonH - 124
  • Schneider Electric -129
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -
  • Trade Mechanics - 136
  • Andy Wiessman - 145


The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality....






      RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas Production for the month


Natgas inventory for the week

Natural gas weekly inventory change of -141 Bcf is +3 vs 5yr avg.







 Natural Gas pwCDD + gwHDD for EIA Report Week



Natural Gas for LNG for EIA Report Week

Natgas Pipeline Flows, Exports and Receipts

In September the US exported 24 loads from Sabine & Cove Point combined of LNG Est 82.5 Bcf. .

In July the US exported 29 loads from Sabine and Cove Point combined of LNG Estimated 102 Bcf. 3.29 Bcf/day. Highest for a month ever.


Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts - Incl Rover and Sabine - check daily with Ron @ronh999



Nuclear Output

Nuclear Output - check daily with Ron @ronh999



Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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