Oil & Energy

Google Ad

The EIA reported a draw of -63 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Inventories are expected to peak this year at 3.24 Tcf: 14% below the 5-year average, the lowest level in at least a decade. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments.



us natgasl locations

From here weather models focus on cold meaning an outside number is a big chance. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Technically after holding the weekly support $2.522 is, the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994 we broke the weekly triangle and $3.50, the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522.  With that basing and energy we moved higher to almost $5.00, note the KnovaWave confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology inside. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 11/29/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Friday December 7 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual - 63 Bcf  Prior  -59 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -60 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -52 to 70 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -59 to -60 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -59 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,054 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3698
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3823

Weather Watch

 


EIA Storage Report

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG W 11 30 18

MW NG D 11 30 18

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

-5851 longs -6451 shorts +600 net change 86% net long (from 85% net long)

  

 

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

U.S. Natural Gas Use By State

++Charts via RonH @RonH999

Platts Analytics (Bentek) Models 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  -  56 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: -  52 Bcf

 “Rather than the usual demand culprits, this week hinges on regional production growth. That’s because average temperatures were flat to the previous week, with minor increases in the Midwest and south-central offsetting small drops across the rest of the US, while modeled estimates for US-level production gained 1.1 Bcf/d. Modeled production estimates in the Northeast, Rockies, Midcon market, and Southeast cell regions added 1 Bcf each to the weekly balances, while Texas alone added 4 Bcf, Bentek adds”  - Bentek

Natural Gas Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -65
  • DJ Survey -61
  • Reuters Survey -73
  • Platts Survey -57

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -64
  • Macquarie -60
  • Raymond James -65
  • TFS -58

Analysts

  • AgWxMan -
  • Jacob Meisel -56
  • Shane Bolling -
  • Genscape -
  • Gabe Harris -56
  • Kidduff Report -70
  • CJS Analytics -
  • Shura Li - Pira - 57
  • Robry825 -55
  • 125WMARION -
  • NG Junkie -
  • Norse -60
  • Andrea Paltry -64
  • Point Logic -62
  • RonH -
  • Schneider Electric -
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -
  • Trade Mechanics -
  • Andy Wiessman - 61

 

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality....

@BrynneKKelly

 

 

      RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas Production for the month

 

Natgas inventory for the week

 

 

  

 Natural Gas pwCDD + gwHDD for EIA Report Week

 

 

Natural Gas for LNG for EIA Report Week

Natgas Pipeline Flows, Exports and Receipts

In September the US exported 24 loads from Sabine & Cove Point combined of LNG Est 82.5 Bcf. .

In July the US exported 29 loads from Sabine and Cove Point combined of LNG Estimated 102 Bcf. 3.29 Bcf/day. Highest for a month ever.

 

Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts - Incl Rover and Sabine - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

  • Freeport LNG moved up starting date of Train 1 to 2Q 2019.
  • Corpus Christi LNG moved up starting date of Train 1 to 4Q 2018.

 

Nuclear Output

Nuclear Output - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

Log in to comment
Discuss this article in the forums (2 replies).