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The EIA reported a draw of -59 Bcf in natural gas storage this week. Inventories are expected to peak this year at 3.24 Tcf: 14% below the 5-year average, the lowest level in at least a decade. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments.



us natgasl locations

From here weather models focus on cold meaning an outside number is a big chance. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.

Technically after holding the weekly support $2.522 is, the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994 we broke the weekly triangle and $3.50, the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522.  With that basing and energy we moved higher to almost $5.00, note the KnovaWave confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology inside. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 11/22/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday November 29 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual -  59 Bcf  Prior  -134 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  -65 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: -62 to 88 Bcf
  • EIA swap: -65 to -66 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report -134 Bcf #TCNG

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,113 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3733
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3823

Weather Watch

 


EIA Storage Report

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG D 11 24 18

MW NG D 11 24 18

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

-41243 longs +29 shorts -41272 net change 85% net long (from 81% net long)

  

 

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

U.S. Natural Gas Use By State

++Charts via RonH @RonH999

Platts Analytics (Bentek) Models 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  - 80 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: - 70 Bcf

 “Although average temperatures across the US warmed up only 1 degree this week, the significantly smaller withdrawal is due to 5 degrees of warming across the Midwest that reduced residential and commercial demand by 2.6 Bcf/d, in addition to the south-central power burn dropping from 14 to 11 Bcf/d,” Bentek says.”  - Bentek

Natural Gas Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -77
  • DJ Survey -74
  • Reuters Survey -77
  • Platts Survey -73

Banks and Brokers-

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -84
  • Macquarie -65
  • Raymond James -82
  • TFS -85

Analysts

  • AgWxMan -
  • Jacob Meisel -67
  • Shane Bolling -
  • Genscape -64
  • Gabe Harris -67
  • Kidduff Report -83
  • CJS Analytics -
  • Shura Li - Pira -68
  • Robry825 -
  • 125WMARION -
  • NG Junkie -
  • Norse -65
  • Andrea Paltry -62
  • Point Logic -68
  • RonH -
  • Schneider Electric -88
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -77
  • Trade Mechanics -73
  • Andy Wiessman - 62

 

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality....

@BrynneKKelly

 

      RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas Production for the month

 

Natgas inventory for the week

  

 Natural Gas pwCDD + gwHDD for EIA Report Week

 

 

Natural Gas for LNG for EIA Report Week

Natgas Pipeline Flows, Exports and Receipts

In September the US exported 24 loads from Sabine & Cove Point combined of LNG Est 82.5 Bcf. .

In July the US exported 29 loads from Sabine and Cove Point combined of LNG Estimated 102 Bcf. 3.29 Bcf/day. Highest for a month ever.

 

Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts - Incl Rover and Sabine - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

  • Freeport LNG moved up starting date of Train 1 to 2Q 2019.
  • Corpus Christi LNG moved up starting date of Train 1 to 4Q 2018.

 

Nuclear Output

Nuclear Output - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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