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The EIA reported a build of +58 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments. Reclassification is of implied flow for the week is an injection of 63 Bcf to working gas stocks in the Lower 48 states.


us natgasl locations

From here weather models focus on cold but be careful we are in the shoulder season and the disrepancy between sample and EIA activity can be significant,  meaning an outside number is a big chance. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 10/18/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday October 25 2018 10:30 ET

C=Reclassification Non-flow-related adjustments decreased working gas stocks by approximately 5 Bcf in the South Central Nonsalt region for the week ending October 19, 2018. The implied flow for the week is an injection of 63 Bcf to working gas stocks in the Lower 48 states.

Market Expectations

  • Actual + 58 Bcf  Prior  +81 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +51 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +33 to +59 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +50 to +51 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +81 Bcf #TCNG

Weather Watch

 


EIA Storage Report

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG W 10 13 18

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

-11084 longs -2793 shorts -8291 net change 84% net long (from 84% net long)

  

 

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

U.S. Natural Gas Use By State

++Charts via RonH @RonH999

Platts Analytics (Bentek) Models 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  +52  Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +55  Bcf

Colder weather across the US dropped power burn to the lowest levels since May, with a larger gain in res-comm demand in the East and Midwest driving the week-over-week tightness. Sample storage activity has remained significantly higher than we typically see over these temperature ranges, particularly in the Midwest and south-central salt dome samples.  - Bentek

Natural Gas Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +51
  • DJ Survey +51
  • Reuters Survey +51
  • Platts Survey +54

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +33
  • Macquarie +53
  • Raymond James +46
  • TFS +50

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +46
  • Jacob Meisel +51
  • Shane Bolling +
  • Genscape +54
  • Gabe Harris +59
  • Kidduff Report +49
  • CJS Analytics +
  • Shura Li - Pira +54
  • Robry825 +57
  • 125WMARION +
  • NG Junkie +
  • Norse +55
  • Andrea Paltry +53
  • Point Logic +50
  • RonH +
  • Schneider Electric +
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +50
  • Trade Mechanics +45
  • Andy Wiessman +42

 

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly

      

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas Production for the month

Natgas inventory for the week

 

 Natural Gas pwCDD + gwHDD for EIA Report Week

 

Natural Gas for LNG for EIA Report Week

Natgas Pipeline Flows, Exports and Receipts

In September the US exported 24 loads from Sabine & Cove Point combined of LNG Est 82.5 Bcf. .

In July the US exported 29 loads from Sabine and Cove Point combined of LNG Estimated 102 Bcf. 3.29 Bcf/day. Highest for a month ever.

 

Genscape Exports To Mexico Forecast

Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts - Incl Rover and Sabine - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

  • Freeport LNG moved up starting date of Train 1 to 2Q 2019.
  • Corpus Christi LNG moved up starting date of Train 1 to 4Q 2018.

 

Nuclear Output

Nuclear Output - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 3,037 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3638
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3642

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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