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The EIA reported a near expected build of +90 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Prompt Henry Hub Futures rose sharply this week to $3.26 in the front and fell to 3.13 on the report. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments. 


us natgasl locations

From here weather models focus is storms with Hurricane Florence, Helene and Issac all in play. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 10/4/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday October 11 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +90 Bcf  Prior  +98 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +92 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +74 to +97 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +92 to +95 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +98 Bcf #TCNG

Hurricane Watch

 


EIA Storage Report

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG W 10 6 18

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change

+32,112 longs -36,450 shorts +68652 net change 79% net long (from 70% net long)

 

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

U.S. Natural Gas Use By State

++Charts via RonH @RonH999

Platts Analytics (Bentek) Models 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  +92  Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +86  Bcf

“Weather volatility caused modeled estimates for residential and commercial demand to pick up 4 Bcf this week, while total supply saw mostly offsetting move ments in US production and Canadian imports..... Pacific region ... another atypical pull for a region that has struggled with hotterthan-normal temperatures and capacity constraints this Summer.” - Bentek

Natural Gas Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +92
  • DJ Survey +90
  • Reuters Survey +91
  • Platts Survey +90

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +74
  • Macquarie +92
  • Raymond James +89
  • TFS +92

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +
  • Jacob Meisel +92
  • Shane Bolling +
  • Genscape +91
  • Gabe Harris +
  • Kidduff Report +94
  • CJS Analytics +
  • Shura Li - Pira +89
  • Robry825 +
  • 125WMARION +
  • NG Junkie +
  • Norse +97
  • Andrea Paltry +90
  • Point Logic +
  • RonH +
  • Schneider Electric +
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +95
  • Trade Mechanics +
  • Andy Wiessman +90

 

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly

 

      

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas Production for the month

Natgas inventory for the week

 

 Natural Gas pwCDD + gwHDD for EIA Report Week

 

Natural Gas for LNG for EIA Report Week

Natgas Pipeline Flows, Exports and Receipts

 In September the US exported 24 loads from Sabine and Cove Point combined of LNG Estimated 82.5 Bcf. .

In July the US exported 29 loads from Sabine and Cove Point combined of LNG Estimated 102 Bcf. 3.29 Bcf/day. Highest for a month ever.

 

Genscape Exports To Mexico Forecast

Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts - Incl Rover and Sabine - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

  

 

  • Freeport LNG moved up starting date of Train 1 to 2Q 2019.
  • Corpus Christi LNG moved up starting date of Train 1 to 4Q 2018.

 

Nuclear Output

Nuclear Output - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,866 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3502
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3473

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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