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The EIA reported a higher than expected build of +33 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Prompt Henry Hub Futures traded lower on the news to 2.90 btu. Meanwhile Mexican exports are hitting a record high.


us natgasl locations

From here weather models are key on the longevity of the heating season. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA's Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 8/9/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday August 16 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +33 Bcf  Prior  +46 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +30 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +17 to +38 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +28 to +29 @ CT 15.13

Last Week's Report +46 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG W 8 11 18

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

 

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports - COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

U.S. Natural Gas Use By State

++Charts via RonH @RonH999

Platts Analytics (Bentek) Models 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  +29 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +28 Bcf

“Power burn continues to be far and away the decisive factor for the week, with a 20-Bcf increase in estimated demand outshining both marginal production gains week on week, and some smaller dips from the remaining demand segments. Regionally, the south-central is expected to bear the brunt of the change, shifting from a withdrawal of -1 to -13 Bcf, week on week. The EIA reported draw may come in weaker, but that risk is balanced for the overall Lower 48 forecast by some high-side risk from the East and Midwest injections.”

Natural Gas Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +28
  • DJ Survey +32
  • Reuters Survey +31
  • Platts Survey +30

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +17
  • Macquarie +31
  • Raymond James +25
  • TFS +29

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +32
  • Jacob Meisel +31
  • Shane Bolling +
  • Genscape +30
  • Gabe Harris +23
  • Kidduff Report +27
  • Shura Li - Pira +32
  • Peter Marrin - SNL +
  • NG Junkie +
  • Norse +34
  • Andrea Paltry +30
  • Point Logic +33
  • RonH +22
  • Schneider Electric +34
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +30
  • Trade Mechanics +32
  • Andy Wiessman +29

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It's never about a single Inventory report.  It's the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality.... @BrynneKKelly

 

     

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas Production for the month

Natgas inventory for the week

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Natural Gas pwCDD + gwHDD for EIA Report Week

Natural Gas for LNG for EIA Report Week

Natgas Pipeline Flows, Exports and Receipts

In July the US exported 29 loads from Sabine and Cove Point combined of LNG Estimated 102 Bcf. 3.29 Bcf/day. Highest for a month ever.

 

Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts - Incl Rover and Sabine - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

 

Nuclear Output

Nuclear Output - check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,387 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3074
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2926

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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