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Bonds, Yields and Inflation

The Week That Was - What Lies Ahead?

Editorial

Yields were the highlight this week. Following the FOMC meeting and St. Louis Fed President Bullard with hawkish sounding comments the Treasury yield curve flattened. The spread between two and 30-year Treasury yields closed Tuesday's (pre-FOMC) session at 202 bps and contracted 26 bps to 176 bps by Friday’s close. The five to 30-year spread sank from 140 to 113 bps. The shorter end of the treasury curve yields rising with the long end falling. This week the two year yield rose 10.72 basis point. five year yield rise 13.92 basis points, 10 yield near unchanged and the 30 year fell -12.19 basis points.

The market is continuing to reprice the reflation narrative with cyclical and value stocks leading the market lower in a broad based declineat weeks end. The S&P 500 spent Friday battling with its 50-day moving average at to close right on it at 4182.14, it hasn't closed below its 50-day moving average since early March. Stock-market volatility was fed by massive options activity. Over 116 million options contracts expired on Friday, according to Cboe Global Markets data, the second-highest level ever after Jan. 15, when more than 150 million contracts were expiring.

We now have a market trying to interpret the Fed who is trying to find out how they can interpret their long-only portfolio at a risk parity where rates cannot rise. The Dollar Index jumped 1.8% to a two-month high. Lumber collapsed 15.2%, and is now down almost 50% from May 10th highs up only 3% y-t-d. Commodities were hit across the board (outside of oil and natural gas who both put in another solid week)Copper was smashed 8.2%, Zinc down 7.3%, Nickel 5.9% and Tin 5.4%. Silver was pounded 7.6%, with Platinum down 9.3%, Palladium 10.9%. Gold and copper both posted their largest one-week percentage declines since March 2020. Gold futures settled $1,769.00/oz, down about -6% on the week. The soft commodities were sold off also with Soybeans were down 7.5%, Sugar 6.3%, Corn 7.1%, and Wheat 2.9%.

This sell offs fit into the Fed's transitory tone, ahead of the FOMC we have seen the May PPI and CPI which showed inflation continues to accelerate, all be it off low Covid lockdown bases. Annual CPI hit 5% in May, highest since August 2008. Biggest price increases again were energy with gasoline up 56.2% and utility gas service up 13.5%.

Powell did address the extraordinarily uncertain economic, inflation and policy backdrops.

“I think we have to be humble about our ability to understand the data. It’s not a time to try to reach hard conclusions about the labor market, about inflation, about the path of policy.” “The problem now is that demand is very, very strong. Incomes are high. People have money on their—in the bank accounts. Demand for goods is extremely high and it hasn’t come down. We’re seeing the service sector reopening, and so you’re seeing prices are moving back up off their lows there.”

There is the prospect of an overheating U.S. economy, but remember we are coming off a low base and the lockdown has decimated many sectors of the economy and people's lives. The relevaton from the speed of technology adapting and disrupting to a new world with the lockdown is transformative. The shift has enabled and transformed the traditional economy that we measure future outcomes off.

We still need to add almost 20 million jobs in the US alone to get back to par. Europe is in worse shape, so overheating at this point isnt a concern for most policymakers.  The unparalleled government monetary inflation has inflated many price levels and distorted asset markets BUT that was intended as to increase confidence in the 'guts' of the economy, homeowners and 401k holders. This point is missed by the uber bear community. From here is the big question. The RBA stability report gives us an insight into central banker thinking, they concluded Australian banks are in strong financial position coming out of pandemic and have abundant liquidity and funding,

The downside is clear with the absence of moral hazard from repeated Federal Reserve market bailouts in an environment of some would say obscene liquidity pumps. Pure greed is the other part, not wanting to miss out on fees. The obvious question is, how deeply ingrained is this attitude through the markets? How do we ween the markets off tis continuos dip feed? At this point the Central Banks have kicked that answer down the road.

After the monthly and weekly employment data the market will be going though whether the recent stimulus rounds are working with in the background of the Federal Reserve Continuing to downplay inflation risk.. We continued to see more rotation from tech to value stock, but a slower pace.

Of note during the Arctic Blast with the EV mania and the Biden Admin Green deal push we noted the spike in spot Texas electricity prices pushing the cost of electricity not on fixed plans to unheard of levels. Bloomberg reported on recharging a Tesla from about $18 to $900. Yes the price spike was fleeting but it should remind the sane amongst us the broader issue of the disconnect between the push toward electrification and our massively inadequate energy infrastructure. This is the area that needs investment, not just for our glorious EV but for all energy and possible disasters like we just saw.

Comments from Yellen and others on the same page suggest that low rates conveniently push potential debt instability far out into the future. The Fed is poised to expand its balance sheet, by adding liquidity to the tune of $1.5 TN this year with no regard for rampant asset price inflation and bubbles. Now the new administration has control of the blank checkbook and is determined to us it with no long-term thinking or planning; everything is short-term focused. Washington is gambling with our nation’s future, from kicking cans down the road to rolling drums down a hill. 

Contents

  • Part A: Stockmarkets
  • Part B: Bonds
  • Fed and Banks
  • Part C: Commodities
  • Energy - Oil and Gas
  • Gold and Silver
  • Part D: Foreign Exchange
  • Geopolitics and Economics
  • Economy Week ahead

 

PART A - Stock Markets

Highlights - USA

  • S&P500 fell 1.9% (up 10.9% y-t-d)
  • Dow dropped 3.4% (up 8.8%)
  • Nasdaq100 added 0.4% (up 9.0%)
  • S&P 400 Midcaps dropped 4.1% (up 13.2%)
  • Russell 2000 fell 4.2% (up 13.2%)
  • Utilities lost 3.1% (up 0.9%).
  • Banks sank again, down another 7.8% (up 21.7%), and the Broker/Dealers dropped 4.2% (up 20.5%)
  • Transports fell 4.6% (up 16.9%)
  • Semiconductors fell 1.8% (up 12.8%)
  • Biotechs declined 1.2% (up 3.0%)
  • With bullion down $113, the HUI gold index sank 11.8% (down 9.5%).


US Indices W 6 18 2021
 

 

Highlights - Europe Stocks

  • U.K.'s FTSE equities index fell 1.6% (up 8.6% y-t-d).
  • France's CAC40 dipped 0.5% (up 18.3%)
  • German DAX equities index lost 1.6% (up 12.6%)
  • Spain's IBEX 35 equities index dropped 1.9% (up 11.9%)
  • Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 1.9% (up 13.4%)

 Highlights - Asia Stocks

  • Japan's Nikkei Equities Index was little changed (up 5.5% y-t-d).
  • South Korea's Kospi index added 0.6% (up 13.7%)
  • India's Sensex equities index slipped 0.2% (up 9.6%)
  • China's Shanghai Exchange dropped 1.8% (up 1.5%)
  • Australia's ASX200 rose 0.8 per cent for the week, a fifth weekly rise in a row as investors dumped banking, mining, and energy stocks in favour of riskier bets. BHP lost 2.5 per cent on Friday to $46.52, Rio Tinto fell 0.6 per cent to $123.47, and Fortescue Metals dropped 0.8 per cent to $22.42. Commonwealth Bank backed away from record highs, dropping 2.1 per cent to $103.69. Westpac, NAB, and ANZ were lower.

 Highlights - Emerging Markets Stocks 

  • EM equities were under pressure.
  • Brazil's Bovespa index dipped 0.8% (up 7.9%)and Mexico's Bolsa lost 1.9% (up 14.2%).
  • South Korea's Kospi index added 0.6% (up 13.7%). India's Sensex equities index slipped 0.2% (up 9.6%). China's Shanghai Exchange dropped 1.8% (up 1.5%).
  • Turkey's Borsa Istanbul National 100 index sank 4.8% (down 5.8%)
  • Russia's MICEX equities index declined 1.0% (up 15.6%)

IPO and SPAC mania is back in full force with last years  Snowflake an indication of and video game maker Roblox going public the most recent big hit.

From rebalance as a natural reversion after the bull mania we have surged with another speculative rush. This after Dow ended the second quarter with a 17.8% gain, the biggest quarterly rally since the first quarter of 1987, when it ripped up 21.6%. IS that enough to rebalnce and go higher? The S&P 500 had its biggest one-quarter surge since the fourth quarter of 1998,  soaring nearly 20%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 30.6% for the quarter, its best quarterly performance since 1999.

Stock valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios are near their highest level since the 2000 dot-com boom.

Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week

 Top 5 Stocks W 6 18 2021

S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis via @KnovaWave

SPX rallied again to new all time highs, after testing and spitting tenkan san & 8/8 Murrey Math at the Daily Cloud & with a positive Chikou retest. We have a number of alternatives of degree (iii) or (iv) of 5, Keep it simple support is Tenkan and Kijun as Chikou rebalances.

The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages.  Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in.

SPX D 6 18 2021
 

Weekly SPX spat the break channel it had been tracing since the break of v of (III) or (V). Key was the spit or retest of MM 8/8 and Tenkan San, which held with the previous highs and Tenkan.  To repeat "We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily."  Keep an eye on the putcall ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as chickou rebalances

 SPX W 6 18 2021

A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Amazon.com Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets.

 

NADSAQ 100

 Nas 100 D 6 18 2021

Russell 2000

 R2000 W 6 18 2021

Semiconductors SMH

Watching Semiconductors cleanly with Murrey Math levels and Tenkan - keys are previous high at +1/8 and Chikou rebalance patterning. Weekly +2/8 around 250 key number recognition factor also. Below Kijun spat to provide support as the reaction from above continued.

 SMH W 6 18 2021

NVidia $NVDA

Following the announcement of NVDA 4/1 split some levels off the energy break. This week we hit the 50% at $709 fueled by calls being cheap, we got earnings and $TSLA split memories and boom! The AMC meme move also fueled speculatiojn, at least NVDA has more substance than Doge!

NVDA W 6 18 2021 

Apple $AAPL

 AAPL D 6 18 2021

Amazon $AMZN

Amazon high was MM +3/8 and from there has built a large weekly flag which it closed under after breaking the Tenkan and Kijun, watch if Kijun closes through Tenkan for a bigger move. From there we have seen a series of work around that up and down. More coiling in affect.

 AMZN W 6 18 2021

ARKK ETF

ARKK W 6 18 2021
 

US Stocks Watch

 

Earnings Week Ahead

This three-month period is the first to be compared to year earlier profits that were affected by the pandemic. For Q1 results in from more than half of the S&P 500 companies, earnings are now expected to have risen 46% from the previous year, compared with forecasts of 24% growth at the start of the month, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. About 87% of reports have come in ahead of analysts' estimates for earnings per share, putting the quarter on track to have the highest beat rate on record going back to 1994, when Refinitiv began tracking the data. First-quarter corporate earnings likely benefited from the firming economic backdrop. With the US stock markets at record highs the downside to increasing profit expectations is the potential for some disappointments and that could cause adverse or stalled market to potentially.

Investors (and algos) will focus pn the conference calls and outlooks. Last quarter everyone expected the worse, we saw critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals. 

Last week we heard from 

Lennar, The Honest Company, Adobe, Kroger, Jabil, Commercial Metals, Smith and Wesson

This week we hear from:  

  • Monday starts us off with
  • Tuesday with Earnings from
  • Wednesday Earnings Include
  • Thursday Earnings Include
  • Friday Earnings include

These are the highlighted earnings for the US this week. Please check daily schedules for more reports.

 

IPO Week Ahead

Nine IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.9 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.

Payments platform Marqeta (MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.

Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun (BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.

Mental health services provider LifeStance Health (LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.

Israel’s monday.com (MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.

BPO vendor TaskUs (TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.

Data-driven marketing platform Zeta Global (ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.

Preclinical cancer biotech Janux Therapeutics (JANX) plans to raise $152 million at a $652 million market cap. Janux is developing next-generation therapeutics based on its proprietary Tumor Activated T Cell Engager platform technology to better treat patients suffering from cancer. The company expects to submit at least two INDs by the end of 2022, initially seeking regulatory approval for its candidates as later lines of therapy.

Online luxury goods marketplace 1stDibs (DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.

Chinese online tutoring platform Zhangmen Education (ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.

 IPO Calendar 6 4 2021

IPO data via Renaissance Capital

Part B : Bond Markets

Highlights - Treasuries

Why the angst in the bond market?

The FOMC presented new economic projections including a forecast of 6.5% for gross domestic product this year with PCE inflation going to 2.4% this year, but falling to 2% next year. Powell reiterated that the Fed sees only a temporary pickup in inflation this year because of the base effects against last year's numbers when prices fell. The Fed will target an average range of inflation around 2%, meaning it could exceed that threshold for some time which is a change to the Fed's ground rules. The majority of Fed officials did not see any interest rate hikes through 2023.  With the passing of the $1.9 trillion splurge a FOMO surge lifted stocks last week but now all eyes on yields dampened the enthusiasm.

What concerns bond holders and impacts stocks over the past weeks is the Fed appears to be too Blaise about inflation. This view got added weight when crude oil hit the highest prices since 2019 after OPEC decided to stay pat on production for April. But since then Crude has fallen over 12% in just a week from those highs. Hence why Powell has said "We’re going to wait to see signs of actual inflation or the appearance of other risks that could threaten the achievement of our goals. And we’ve seen that the economy can sustain exceptionally low levels of unemployment without inflation.”

There is a view that Powell also refuses to be dictated to and set the bond bullies up for failure. The V reversal this month suggests that. Air needs to come out of the market, particularly Tech, this is best illustrated by the ARK Funds and Semi-Conductor SMH ET's (see below). From here we have another massive $1.9 Trillion stimulus. Is that enough to keep asset prices elevated, hard to fight the Fed and that kind of cash floating around. Watch the argument from analysts that higher yields mean the economy is growing, stocks are value versus hyperinflation is on its way.

Raise your eyes and look at the stopped car in front of you you may want to hit the brakes.The pandemic is not close to our greatest worry, nor is energy it seems. The  runaway credit bubble in the era of delusion and entitlement has multiple unintended consequences or are they intended? The stockmarket has lost rationality  the danger is should the bubble pop the consequences of a historic debt crisis in a deeply divided nation and unprepared social and geopolitical backdrops could be earth shattering as the Fed disregards asset inflation and bubble dynamics.

  • Investment-grade bond funds saw inflows of $3.994 billion, while junk bond funds posted outflows of $2.230 billion (from Lipper).

we are now 92 weeks and $4.23 trillion into the latest bout of QE, liquidity injections that commenced in the pre-pandemic backdrop of near record stock prices and a multi-decade low unemployment rate.

  • Three-month Treasury bill rates ended the week at 0.0275%.
  • Two-year government yields jumped 11bps to 0.255% (up 13bps y-t-d).
  • Five-year T-note yields rose 14 bps to 0.88% (up 51bps).
  • Ten-year Treasury yields slipped a basis point to 1.44% (up 52bps).
  • Long bond yields sank 13 bps to 2.02% (up 37bps).
  • Benchmark Fannie Mae MBS yields rose eight bps to 1.88% (up 53bps).

 TNX W 6 18 2021

All good while markets hold up but take note that the loosest financial conditions in history have supported a record $1.4 trillion of corporate debt issuance. While easy credit availability has supported economic activity,  funding new investment whilst keeping vulnerable companies afloat. THe combination of urban shifts through virus and riots fears has fueled a booming MBS market and record low mortgage rates pushing strong housing markets into Bubble risk territory.

Highlights - Mortgage Market

U.S. home prices have been fueled by the lowest mortgage rates in history and relocation demand have risen rose at the fastest pace on record, surpassing the peak from the last property boom in 2005. The median price of a single-family home climbed 14.9% to $315,000 in the fourth quarter, the biggest surge in data going back to 1990. The Northeast led the way with a 21% gain.”

  • Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates declined three bps to 2.93% (down 20bps y-o-y).
  • Fifteen-year rates added a basis point to 2.24% (down 34bps).
  • Five-year hybrid ARM rates slipped three bps to 2.52% (down 57bps).
  • Bankrate's survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates up ten bps to 3.19% (down 30bps).

Highlights - Federal Reserve

  • Federal Reserve Credit last week surged $59.3bn to a record $7.965 TN. Over the past 92 weeks, Fed Credit expanded $4.238 TN, or 114%. Fed Credit inflated $5.154 Trillion, or 183%, over the past 449 weeks.
  • Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt last week declined $9.2bn to $3.538 TN.
  • "Custody holdings" were up $119bn, or 3.5%, y-o-y.
  • Total money market fund assets fell $27bn to $4.578 TN. Total money funds declined $106bn y-o-y, or 2.3%.

We do know we have massive speculation pockets, viz a viz the Meme or GameStop, Weed stocks and cryptocurrency spectacles in just the matter of weeks. The Fed is today throwing additional fuel on historic speculative manias.

  • The Fed QE infinity programme is a yield curve control policy with long government bond yields coming down. Bond supply and continued central bank resistance to more negative policy rates limits the move. Central banks have been cutting rates and adding liquidity to avoid systematic failure.

Highlights - European Bonds

  • Greek 10-year yields rose eight bps to 0.81% (up 19bps y-t-d).
  • Ten-year Portuguese yields gained eight bps to 0.43% (up 40bps).
  • Italian 10-year yields jumped 13 bps to 0.87% (up 33bps).
  • Spain's 10-year yields rose 10 bps to 0.46% (up 41bps).
  • German bund yields gained seven bps to negative 0.20% (up 37bps).
  • French yields increased six bps to 0.16% (up 50bps).
  • The French to German 10-year bond spread narrowed one to 36 bps.
  • U.K. 10-year gilt yields increased four bps to 0.75% (up 56bps).

Highlights - Asian Bonds

  • Japanese 10-year "JGB" yields added two bps to 0.06% (up 4bps y-t-d).

 

Part C: Commodities

Highights

  • The Bloomberg Commodities Index dropped 4.3% (up 16.5% y-t-d).
  • WTI crude added 73 cents to $71.64 (up 48%).Gasoline declined 0.8% (up 54%), and Natural Gas dropped 2.5% (up 27%).
  • Copper sank 8.2% (up 18%).
  • Wheat fell 2.9% (up 4%). Corn lost 7.1% (up 17%).
  • Bitcoin dropped $1,738, or 4.7%, this week to $35,544 (up 22%).
  • Risk markets continue to respond to a Conronvirus outbreak and failed negotiations between Congress and the White House over an additional economic stimulus package to boost economic demand.
  • U.S. producers production still under pre Laura levels.
  • Higher crude prices prompt some U.S. producers start drilling again with rigs up for the ninth week in a row.

BDI Freight Index

  • Baltic Dry Index was up more than 12% for the week but fell 1.5% to 3,218 on Friday, snapping a seven-session winning streak, amid a general decrease in commodities prices due to a stronger dollar and as China takes steps to cool commodities rally.
  • The capesize, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, slumped 4.3% to 4,029, breaking a seven-session winning streak
  • The panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and iron ore, went down 0.4% to 3,544.
  • The supramax index rose 48 points to 2,802, its highest level since available records began in 2017.
  • Source: Baltic Exchange

 

Copper

Copper has been a leader in the risk on movement for commodities. , The weekly channel since the low has captured the move and has rebalanced the chikou after the power spits of +8/8 and +2/8.  Support at the tenkan and the median line this week, multiple failures at +4/8

Copper W 6 18 2021
 

 US Crude Oil (WTI)

4 Hour:: Since bottoming at -1/8 240 and breaking the tenkan and then confirming the next wave up over the Kijun and 50ma WTI has extended off each tenkan spit as marked. Targets remain +2/8 and above MM. Support is the kijun and 50ma

 WTI 240 6 18 2021

Daily: WTI  retested and broke the double top successfully to close above +2/8 multiple resistance. We have rallied since we tested and spat the daily kijun,  50 dma and tenkan as the market rebalanced at the mid point of the month's range.  We had been effectively consolidating since we broke the topside of the channel it had been in since September. In any break, the key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. We watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit. Support  is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan & prev high confluence. Resistance is Murrey Math levels and Fib clusters.  

 WTI D 6 18 2021

Weekly: WTI rebounded after corrected off previous highs in clinical ABC and rebalanced chikou indicative of  crowd behavior ahead of $70 strike and 50% fib at 70.29 over 7/8. Reflect on series of fractals at last Dec wave 1 turn after we had completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watched 3 & 5 waves develop. Oil tested and held support at Tenkan. Support below at Kijun and 50 wma It must retain this energy to take out new highs last seen 2019.

These are special times, recall "After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications." Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price 

 WTI W 6 18 2021

 

Oil 2020 2021

Oil 2014 2021

Oil 2020 2021

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Daily: US Natural Gas after completing the (ii) of 1 bearish or the alternative C of 4 bullish scenario has played out both the corrective and consolidation phases since it completed its B or IV ( Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. Price has moved over the Tenkan and Kijun through the 50dma, which are now support.  Key is if can cross through previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and over the resistance at 8/8 and said highs.  Support is tenkan and cloud

 NG D 6 18 2021

Weekly: Natty has moved in a series of 3's since spat the 50 wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan and bounced off the 50wma. Testing recent highs on its 3rd attempt.   A series of fractals between old 38 and 50% channel., as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is recent highs and Fib/Murrey confluence.

NG W 6 18 2021
 

 Key Energy Reports

 

Precious Metals

Highlights

  • Spot Gold fell 6.0% to $1,764 (down 7.1%)
  • Silver sank 7.6% to $25.79 (down 2.3%)

Gold

After its manic rise to +5/8 weekly and rebalance of the Kikou in 5 waves then tested and failed the Tenkan, kijun and 50 wma. We found support at the wave 1 confluence of the higher degeree 5, To be bullish we would need to stay above the cloud.  We appear to have overcome the negative divergence between the weekly chikou, Silver spread and the recent highs BUT NOT yet Tenkan & Kijun fails.Murrey Math resistance. From there does the 5 play out? Watch Fibs and chikou.

 Gold W 6 18 2021

 Gold 2 26 21 Fail

Silver

Silver is back at the cloud, key 38% and 50wma providing support after the correction following the squeeze which forced Gold/Silver which buoyed silver in the PM space, eventually we reversed with a double top Knowing that recall Silver did a fractal of the sharp C up to breakdown level above the cloud fed by divergence from gold reverting. The weekly Tenkan crossing the Kijun would signal more downside. Note the MM

 Silver W 6 18 2021

 

Part D: Forex Markets

John Maynard Keynes, 1920: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

Highlights

  • For the week,the U.S. Dollar Index increased 1.8% to 92.23 (up 2.6% y-t-d)
  • Majors for the week none on the upside. On the downside, the Australian dollar 3.0%, the Swiss franc 2.5%, the Canadian dollar 2.5%, the British pound 2.1%, the euro 2.0%, and the Japanese yen 0.5%.
  • Minors for the week on the upside, the Brazilian real increased 0.6%. On the downside, the South African rand declined 4.4%, the Norwegian krone 3.8%, the Mexican peso 3.8%, the Swedish krona 3.4%, the New Zealand dollar 2.7%, the South Korean won 1.9%, the Singapore dollar 1.4%. The Chinese renminbi declined 0.84% versus the dollar this week (up 1.15% y-t-d).

Australian Dollar - AUDUSD

Aussie dollar completed a 5 at the pysch 80 level and it back doing a break retest of 8/8 and the weekly tenkan. as one would expect after it completed 5 waves in emotive fashion.The Australian dollar fell to its lowest value since December, touching 75.12 US cents. The greenback extended gains It has closed over the 50 Wma in 5 waves but between the Tenkan and Kijun like many commodities.The AUDUSD old three year high of 0.7820 from January 6. is a key option energy point playing out.

AUD W 6 18 2021

New Zealand Dollar - NZDUSD

The Kiwi has been strengthening after RBNZ policy mostly went as expected with no changes with interest rates or its large-scale asset purchases. NZD has mirrored the AUD in its wave (iii) spit and has since closed over the panic breakdown (0%) correcting all of the panic muster wave and running to the 38% Fib & 6/8 confluence.  Support the Kijun and Resistance Tenkan, which is pivotal. Resistance 6/8 spits.

NZD W 6 18 2021

Canadian Dollar - USDCAD

The Loonie hit in 3 year high this week as it continues to benefit from dollar weakness and commodity currency strength led by the AUSD and NZD after spitting the 261% Fib & Weekly 8/8 after 5 waves lower (USD higher)  We closed ender the old 38.8% confluence. Use Fibs for support and resisitance until Tenkan and Kijun catch up

CAD W 6 18 2021

Euro - EURUSD

The Euro continues to correct in flags after broke the channel last May. after ABC (IV) then retested the tenkan to spit the +1/8 in 5 waves from there we closed the week back testing the tenkan (orange) and now Kijun (pink). A question of degree on recent high - 1 complete or 1 of 3?, Watch 3 waves to see development for continuation. Resistance is Fibs as marked.  Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility. 


 EUR W 6 18 2021


British Pound - USDGBP

The upcoming week will be heavy on UK data, which could mean an eventful week for the British pound.

 GBP W 6 18 2021

EuroPound - EURGBP

Back testing top of outer band and tenkan of Brexit. Johnson price reaction.after its classic ABC out of failure following the X wave. Tenkan will give us a clue if normalcy is returning to the channel trade.

 EURGBP W 6 18 2021

Japanese Yen - USDJPY

USDJPY has declined for two consecutive weeks following the recent weakness with Treasury yields. BOJ could start to decrease purchases and that should thwart some yen strength. The 108.00 level should remain massive support for dollar-yen as long as Treasury yields start to stabilize. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun Tenkan kiss. Use your #USDJPY Murrey 6/8 0/8 grid for now. #EURJPY #AUDJPY will determine risk on/off

JPY W 6 18 2021

 Mexican Peso USDMXN

The Peso corrected the collapse to +1/8 against the USD right back to the 100% Fib  We have seen violent moves with outisde uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise. 

MXN W 6 18 2021

Turkish Lire USDTRY

The Turkish Lire  had corrected back to the weekly cloud to bounce to the Kijun, correcting back through Tenkan. The Turkish Central Bank removed its tightening bias and scrapped the end-2021 inflation target in a dovish move. The Turkish lira has plunged about 11% since Naci Agbal was fired as the central bank governor in March.

 TRY W 6 18 2021

Bitcoin

In the last 12 months Bitcoin exploded after it spent a year consolidating under the 61.8% spit. Each tenkan and kijun tap saw an explosive kiss of life to over 423% of that consolidation. Bitcoin put in a high of $63,000 around Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange successfully went public which signaled profit-taking . (Recall what happened after the CME and CBOE futures starts)

From there we have seen what you would expect from a 5 wave impulse peak, a violent correction or completion. Use Murrey Math levels for corrections and targets as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud and sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.

 BTC W 6 18 2021

 

 

On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

 

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Trade Imbalances IMF

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Economic and Geopolitical Watch

Job Losses

United States Unemployment Rate

Over 14.5 million are collecting traditional jobless benefits, up from 1.7 million a year ago, with no end in sight. on Thursday, the Labor Department reported under 800,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits for the second time since the crisis.  With the Covid shutdown we lost over 22 million jobs in March and April. Still a huge shortfall in jobs, and the big question is will they come back?

US Politics

June 6 – New York Times (Alan Rappeport): “Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen secured a landmark international tax agreement over the weekend, one that has eluded the United States for nearly a decade. But with a narrowly divided Congress and resistance from Republicans and business groups mounting, closing the deal at home may be an even bigger challenge. The Biden administration is counting on more than $3 trillion in tax increases on corporations and wealthy Americans to help pay for its ambitious jobs and infrastructure proposals. Republicans have expressed opposition to any rise in taxes and have warned that President Biden’s big spending plans are fueling inflation and will deter business investment. Business groups have complained that higher taxes pose a threat to the economic recovery and will put American companies at a competitive disadvantage.”

June 10 – CNBC (Jeff Cox): “The U.S. budget deficit passed the $2 trillion mark in May amid a continuing flow of fiscal largesse to a rapidly expanding economy… Government red ink for the month was just below $132 billion, the lowest monthly shortfall of the year but still enough to put the total deficit at $2.063 trillion… With four months left to go for the fiscal year, the government is on pace to come close to 2020′s record $3.13 trillion deficit.”

June 17 – Wall Street Journal (Andrew Duehren and Kristina Peterson): “A growing bipartisan group of lawmakers and the White House haggled over how to finance a roughly $1 trillion infrastructure proposal, awaiting feedback from President Biden as Democrats began discussions on a separate economic package that could cost up to $6 trillion. Since negotiations between Mr. Biden and a group of Senate Republicans collapsed last week, an alternative set of Republican and Democratic senators have held talks on a infrastructure plan that would spend $973 billion over five years… Initially a group of five Democrats and five Republicans, the group expanded to include 11 Republicans and 10 members of the Democratic caucus…”

The virus and psychological affect on domestic and trade relationships have impacted growth strategies with unexpected consequences   In a  fully fledged stock mania, nothing matters until it does. That is the feral nature of greed.

Drought Watch

June 4 – CNBC (Emma Newburger): “Nearly three-fourths of the U.S. West is grappling with the most severe drought in the recorded history of the U.S. Drought Monitor, as hot and arid conditions are set to exacerbate the threat of wildfires and water supply shortages this summer. Parts of California, Nevada and Washington experienced sweltering triple-digit temperatures over the past week amid the drought… Conditions this spring are much worse than a year ago. In fact, nearly half of the continental U.S. is in a moderate to exceptional drought, marking the most significant spring drought in the country since 2013, according to... the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.”

June 10 – Reuters (Andrea Januta and Daniel Trotta): “The reservoir created by Hoover Dam… has sunk to its lowest level ever, underscoring the gravity of the extreme drought across the U.S. West. Lake Mead, formed in the 1930s from the damming of the Colorado River at the Nevada-Arizona border about 30 miles (50 km) east of Las Vegas, is the largest reservoir in the United States. It is crucial to the water supply of 25 million people including in the cities of Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Tucson and Las Vegas. As of 11 p.m. PDT Wednesday, the lake surface fell to 1,071.56 feet above sea level, dipping below the previous record low set on July 1, 2016.”

June 18 – Wall Street Journal (Katherine Blunt and Jim Carlton): “States across the West are at risk of electricity shortages this summer as a crippling drought reduces the amount of water available to generate hydroelectric power. Some of the region’s largest reservoirs are at historically low levels after a dry winter and spring reduced the amount of snowpack and precipitation feeding rivers and streams. The conditions are especially dire in drought-stricken California, where officials say the reservoir system has seen an unprecedented loss of runoff this spring—800,000 acre-feet, or enough to supply more than a million households for a year.”

June 16 – CNBC (Emma Newburger): “An extreme heat wave gripping the western United States will intensify and spread this week, creating dangerous conditions amid the worst drought in the last two decades and raising concerns about severe wildfires and electrical grid failures. More than 40 million people in the country are forecast to experience triple-digit temperatures this week, and roughly 200 million people are projected to see temperatures over 90 degrees Fahrenheit. More than three-fourths of the West is in severe drought… Temperatures in some areas could surpass 120 degrees, and excessive-heat warnings are in place for several states. Nevada and Arizona are forecast to see record temperatures of 125 and 128 degrees, respectively.”

Global Watch

Hot Spots

  • June 14 – Bloomberg: “China lashed out at the U.S., calling the country ‘very ill indeed,’ after President Joe Biden secured support from European allies to present a more united front against Beijing. Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian criticized Biden’s efforts during summits of the Group of Seven and North Atlantic Treaty Organization in recent days. The response was the latest sign of Beijing’s frustration with Washington, amid tensions over everything from trade and security to human rights and the pandemic. ‘The U.S. is ill and very ill indeed,’ Zhao told reporters… ‘The G-7 had better take its pulse and come up with a prescription.’”
  • June 7 – Reuters: “A report on the origins of COVID-19 by a U.S. government national laboratory concluded that the hypothesis of a virus leak from a Chinese lab in Wuhan is plausible and deserves further investigation, the Wall Street Journal said…, citing people familiar… The study was prepared in May 2020 by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California and was referred to by the State Department when it conducted an inquiry into the pandemic's origins during the final months of the Trump administration…”
  • ”Geopolitical tensions with China and India are on the rise as China increases military hardware near the China and India's Himalaya border, a potential negative shock not priced by markets.
  • June 9 – Bloomberg (Maria Eloisa Capurro and Max de Haldevang): “Latin America’s top central banks are coming under growing pressure to raise interest rates, as inflation stands way above the target ceiling in Brazil and Mexico. Consumer prices in both countries came in above forecasts in May, showing persistent inflationary shocks… The data came ahead of interest rate decisions in both countries. Brazil’s central bank is expected to lift interest rates by 75 bps next week, its third consecutive hike of that magnitude this year. Mexico’s central bank… will revisit later this month its decision to hold the benchmark rate at a near five-year low of 4%. Consumer prices in Brazil jumped 8.06% in May from a year earlier… In Mexico, annual inflation slowed slightly to 5.89%, still way above the 3% goal.”
  • June 7 – Reuters (Andrey Ostroukh): “Russia’s annual consumer inflation accelerated to 6.0% in May, overshooting expectations and adding arguments for tighter monetary policy days before the central bank’s rate-setting meeting… Inflation, the central bank’s main area of responsibility, accelerated to its highest since October 2016 when the central bank’s key interest rate was at 10%.”
  • June 17 – Reuters (Trevor Hunnicutt and Simon Lewis): “President Joe Biden on his first foreign foray sought to cast Russia not as a direct competitor to the United States but as a bit player in a world where Washington is increasingly pre-occupied by China. Aides said Biden wanted to send a message that Putin was isolating himself on the international stage with his actions, ranging from election interference and cyber-attacks against Western nations to his treatment of domestic critics. But Biden could struggle in a parallel attempt to stop the rot in U.S.-Russia relations and deter the threat of nuclear conflict while also talking down Russia, some observers said. ‘The administration wants to de-escalate tensions. It's not clear to me that Putin does,’ said Tim Morrison, a national security adviser during the Trump administration. ‘The only cards he has to play are those of the disruptor.’”
  • June 8 – Bloomberg (Jason Scott): “As worsening geopolitical tensions with China spill into trade reprisals, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison is heading to the U.K. to meet global leaders this week with a message: There’s strength in numbers. ‘Patterns of cooperation within the liberal rules-based order that has benefited us for so long are under renewed strain,’ Morrison said… In order to support a ‘world order that favours freedom over autocracy and authoritarianism,’ he urged ‘active cooperation among like-minded countries and liberal democracies not seen for 30 years.’
  • Since Australia-China relations went into a tailspin after Morrison’s government last year called for Beijing to allow independent investigators to probe the origins of the pandemic, he’s become a vocal proponent of bolstering partnerships between what he calls ‘like-minded democracies.’”
  • ‘Polarization among Chinese developers will deepen this year, and more developers are likely to suffer from debt failures,’ said John Sun, co-managing partner at Aplus Partners Management Co… Weaker developers ‘will need to sell assets to fight for survival, while some will likely default on their debt.’”
  • May 19 – Reuters: “Taiwan will tighten curbs on the use of water from June 1 in the major chip making hubs of Hsinchu and Taichung as it battles an islandwide drought, if there is no significant rainfall by then, the government said… Describing the drought as the worst in the island's history, the economy ministry said in the absence of rain it would raise the drought alert level to its highest, requiring companies in the two science parks to cut water consumption by 17%.”
  • “France’s public deficit is expected to reach 9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said…, up from a previous forecast of 8.5% as the country enters its third national coronavirus lockdown. The change follows a downward revision of France’s growth forecast from 6% to 5% for this year… Le Maire… said France’s public debt was set to reach 118% of GDP this year, up from its latest forecast of 115%.”
  • May 20 – Reuters: “German producer prices rose by 5.2% year-on-year in April, the biggest increase in nearly a decade…, in a further sign that supply bottlenecks are leading to increased inflation pressure in Europe’s largest economy. The rise in producer prices followed a 3.7% year-on-year increase in March and compared with a Reuters poll forecast of 5.1%. Compared to the previous month, producer prices were up 0.8% in April…”
  • May 20 – Associated Press (Vladimir Isachenkov): “Russian President Vladimir Putin alleged… some of the country’s foreign foes dream about biting off pieces of the country’s vast territory, warning that Moscow would ‘knock their teeth out’ if they ever try. In strong remarks during a conference call with officials, the Russian president noted that foreign efforts to contain Russia date from centuries ago. ‘In all times, the same thing happened: once Russia grew stronger, they found pretexts to hamper its development,’ Putin said… ‘Everyone wants to bite us or bite something off us, but those who would like to do so should know that we would knock their teeth out so that they couldn’t bite,’ the Russian leader said. ‘The development of our military is the guarantee of that.’”c
  • May 17 – Bloomberg (Eduardo Thomson, Valentina Fuentes and Matthew Malinowski): “Chilean assets plunged after the ruling coalition suffered a surprise drubbing in the election for a constituent assembly, placing the writing of a new charter firmly in the hands of the left-wing. The benchmark stock exchange closed down 9.3%..., while the peso fell 2.3%. Yields on Chile peso bonds due in 2030 jumped 22 bps to 3.82%. Candidates from the ruling coalition obtained just 37 of 155 seats on the assembly designed to write the new constitution… Contenders unaffiliated with any political parties secured 65 seats. The result means the ruling coalition falls short of the one-third threshold they needed to block market-unfriendly clauses in the new charter.”
  • For emerging markets the lower US dollar ihad been helping the Fragile 5. Argentina and Turkey are still red letter risks with Covid however.
  • June 16 – Wall Street Journal (Caitlin Ostroff): “Early tightening of the Federal Reserve’s policy could ripple across emerging markets that are dependent on the U.S. dollar. Prime among them is Turkey. The Turkish lira has come under pressure in recent weeks as investors try to assess whether the country’s central bank will heed the demands of its president to cut interest rates. But a rate cut could drag the lira down further at the same time that the country’s high inflation rate is already diminishing the currency’s buying power. Turkey’s economy is among the most vulnerable to signs the Fed is going to raise rates since a stronger dollar makes it harder for Turkey to pay its foreign-currency debts.” Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?

    If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

  • Continued volatility with the engulfing uncertainty of the Coronavirus and in commodity markets, particularly in oil and other commodities, not to mention unrest in Iran, Libya and Iraq. 

 

Trade Wars

  • Trade wars persist between Australia and China. The largest exporter of commodities and the worlds largest importer of commodities. China is experiencing record cold weather and it's beligerance is hurting shooting itself in the foot. Regional partners such as Japan and India have supported Australia's standing up to Chinese bullying.
  • In addition to rising tensions with China, the United States Trade Representative said last month said that the USTR is considering a new round of tariffs on $3.1 billion in European exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K..We are awaiting Biden's offical resposne.
  • Chairman Chi and President Biden had a phone hook last month week with the US saying they will review all policies but tariffs to stand in the meantime. China continued it's theats on the matter. 

 

Fat Tail Virus Risk

  • June 17 – CNBC (Holly Ellyatt): “The Covid-19 delta variant originally discovered in India is now spreading around the world, becoming the dominant strain in some countries, such as the U.K., and likely to become so in others, like the U.S… The World Health Organization said the variant had been detected in more than 80 countries and it continues to mutate as it spreads. The variant now makes up 10% of all new cases in the United States, up from 6% last week. Studies have shown the variant is even more transmissible than other variants. Scientists have warned that the data suggests the delta variant is around 60% more transmissible than the “alpha” variant… and is more likely to lead to hospitalizations…”
  • Fauci believes 70%-85% of the population must be vaccinated to reach herd immunity.

 

Banks

The major money cents banks released earnings with many record results for Q1. Mainly from trading and fees from IPO's and SPAC's. Rising interest rates also help the bottom line.

Banks stocks have benefited from the Federal Reserve partially lifting its hold on share buybacks, saying that banks can resume repurchases in the first quarter of 2021 as long they don't exceed the average quarterly profits from their past four quarters. The change came after the Fed found that all major banks passed a second round of stress tests, indicating the firms can continue lending to businesses and households even if the economy dipped into a new recession.

Potentially the top six banks can buy back $11 billion in the first-quarter. Goldman Sachs shares after the announcement led the rally with a 7.7% increase. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan jumped 6.4% and 4.9% at intraday highs. Within minutes of the announcement all three banks have announced plans to resume buybacks in the new year.

Banks are benefiting from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission intending to ease the Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from making large investments into venture capital. The Volcker Rule was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the new changes could potentially free up billions in bank capital. Bank stocks rose. otal Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded $737 billion during Q3 to a record $60.113 trillion.

Through the first three quarters of 2020, NFD surged an unprecedented $5.740 trillion, or 14.1% annualized. NFD was up $6.181 trillion over the past year (11.5%) and $8.817 trillion (16.7%) over two years. For perspective, NFD expanded on average $1.830 trillion annually over the past decade. NFD has ballooned 71% since the end of 2008.  

"Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch"

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead - Have a Trading Plan

Central banks in the UK, China, Philippines, Thailand and Mexico have monetary policy statements. Flash PMI surveys for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia will offer a first look at the state of the global economy in June, with investors paying close attention to any signs of a persistent surge in price pressures. We also get US final Q1 GDP, durable goods orders and PCE data. Another weekly US key is the jobless figures after Thursday’s report of the lowest level since the early days of the pandemic. Canada and Mexico retail sales; UK and EU consumer morale; and Australia retail sales.

There are dozens of earnings expected in the week ahead. G7 finance ministers reached a historic agreement to reform the global tax system at the G7 leaders' summit on 11-13 June 2021. We watch for any breakdown in those agreements.

Central Banker and Geopolitics Watch speeches, reports and rate moves

Monday: June 20 2021

  • Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report
  • 09:30 USD St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
  • 10:15 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • 15:00 USD FOMC member & New York Fed President John Williams Speaks

Tuesday June 22, 2021

  • 10:30 USD Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
  • 11:00 USD San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
  • 14:00 USD Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress on pandemic programs and economy
  • 19:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • 23:15 AUD RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks

Wednesday June 24, 2021

  • 03:30 EUR ECB's De Guindos Speaks
  • 08:55 CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin
  • 09:00 USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
  • 09:30 GBP BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks
  • 11:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 12:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • 16:30 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

Thursday June 25, 2021

  • 04:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
  • 07:00 GBP BoE QE Total (Jun)
  • 07:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
  • 07:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
  • 07:35 EUR ECB's Panetta Speaks
  • 11:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Friday June 26, 2021

  • 07:00 GBP BoE Quarterly Bulletin

Improvements in some economic indicators, such as home sales, manufacturing activity and  in employment data have bolstered investor confidence and helped extend the rally in stocks. Support in markets comes from the Fed’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities.

Economic Events in the Week Ahead:

Sunday, June 20 2021

  • 19:01 GBP Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)
  • 21:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
  • 21:30 CNY PBoC Loan Prime Rate

Monday, June 21 2021

  • Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report
  • 08:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (May)
  • 09:30 USD St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
  • 10:15 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 15:00 USD FOMC New York Fed President John Williams Speaks
  • 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions
  • 17:00 KRW PPI (YoY)(MoM) (May)
  • 17:00 NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Q2)
  • 21:00 NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY)

Tuesday, June 22, 2021

  • 01:00 JPY BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
  • 02:00 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (May)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Sales (MoM)
  • 04:30 HKD CPI (YoY) (May)
  • 06:00 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jun)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY)
  • 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (May)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (Jun)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Services Index (Jun)
  • 10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Jun)
  • 10:30 USD Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
  • 11:00 USD San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
  • 13:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction
  • 14:00 USD Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress on pandemic programs and economy
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 19:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI
  • 19:00 AUD Services PMI
  • 19:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • 20:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
  • 20:30 JPY Services PMI (Jun)
  • 23:15 AUD RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks

Wednesday June 23, 2021

  • 01:00 JPY Coincident Indicator (MoM) (May)
  • 01:00 JPY Leading Index
  • 01:00 SGD CPI (YoY) (May)
  • 03:15 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
  • 03:15 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Jun)
  • 03:15 EUR French Services PMI (Jun)
  • 03:30 EUR German Composite PMI (Jun)
  • 03:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
  • 03:30 EUR German Services PMI (Jun)
  • 03:30 EUR ECB's De Guindos Speaks
  • 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
  • 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Jun)
  • 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Jun)
  • 04:30 GBP Composite PMI
  • 04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI
  • 04:30 GBP Services PMI
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 USD Current Account (Q1)
  • 08:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
  • 08:55 CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin
  • 09:00 USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
  • 09:30 GBP BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks
  • 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
  • 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Jun)
  • 09:45 USD Services PMI (Jun)
  • 10:00 USD New Home Sales (May)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 11:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 12:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • 13:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction
  • 13:00 USD 5-Year Note Auction
  • 16:30 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
  • 17:00 KRW Consumer Confidence (Jun)
  • 19:50 JPY Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (YoY)
  • 19:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying

Thursday, June 25, 2021

  • 02:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (May)
  • 02:45 EUR French Business Survey (Jun
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 04:00 EUR German Business Expectations (Jun)
  • 04:00 EUR German Current Assessment (Jun)
  • 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jun)
  • 04:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
  • 07:00 GBP BoE QE Total (Jun)
  • 07:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun)
  • 07:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
  • 07:35 EUR ECB's Panetta Speaks
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May)
  • 08:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 08:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 08:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (May)
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May)
  • 08:30 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM)
  • 08:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM)
  • 08:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 11:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (Jun)
  • 11:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction
  • 16:30 USD Fed Bank Stress Test Results
  • 17:00 KRW Manufacturing BSI Index (Jul)
  • 18:45 NZD Trade Balance (MoM) (May)
  • 19:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun)
  • 19:30 JPY Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Jun)

Friday, June 25, 2021

  • 01:00 SGD Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
  • 02:00 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (Jul)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish PPI (YoY)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Business Confidence (Jun)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence (Jun)
  • 04:00 EUR Private Sector Loans (YoY)
  • 05:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (May)
  • 06:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun)
  • 06:00 EUR France Jobseekers Total
  • 07:00 GBP BoE Quarterly Bulletin
  • 08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May)
  • 08:30 USD PCE price index (MoM) (May)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (May)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (May)
  • 08:30 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (May)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
  • 12:00 USD Dallas Fed PCE (May)
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
  • 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2020. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. 

 

 

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