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FEAR NOT Brave Investors

Meet Christmas Bethleham
 

 Strange times But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.

So This Is Christmas

The Week That Was - What Lies Ahead?

Editorial

Covid has been front and center, record daily deaths and cases and now two vaccines approves, Pfixer $PFE and Moderna $MRNAA. However the 'market fever' was Tesla being added to the stock index on Dec. 21. Tesla ripped 6% Friday to a record close of $695 before it replaces Apartment Investment and Management Co in the S&P index. Tesla shares are up a staggering 61% from the day of the announcement, taking Elon to the second richest man in the world on the surge of unbridled speculation.

We head into the week before Christmas and Santa urely did a rally in 2020 didn't he!  This will be a thinly traded week shortened when markets close at 1 p.m. ET Thursday to recognize the Christmas holiday.

Contents

  • Stockmarkets
  • Energy - Oil and Gas
  • Foreign Exchange
  • Gold and Silver
  • Fixed Interest & Banks
  • Risk Radar
  • Geopolitcs and Economy 
  • Week ahead

 

Stock Markets

Highlights - USA

  • Friday price action was influenced by market participants anticipating quadruple-witching options expiration, quarterly rebalancing of S&P 500 and annual reconstitution of the Nasdaq 100 and Tesla's (TSLA 695.00, +39.10, +6.0%) inclusion into the S&P 500.
  • On Friday S&P index fell -13.07 points or -0.35% to 3709.41. The low 3685.84. The high 3726.70, S&P 500 +14.8% YTD
  • The NASDAQ index Friday fell -9.108 points or -0.07% to 12755.62. The low 12654.60. The high 12809.60 Nasdaq Composite +42.2% YTD
  • Friday Dow fell -124.32 points or -0.41% to 30179.02. The low 30029.44. The high 30343.59 Dow Jones Industrial Average +5.8% YTD
  • Russell 2000 declined 0.4% Friday, Russell 2000 +18.1% YTD 

 

US indices W 12 18 2020

Highlights - Europe

  • In Europe for the week saw Germany leading again.
  • Friday's closes France CAC, -0.45% For the Week +0.33% Year to date -7.26%
  • Friday's close German DAX, -0.21% For the Week +3.94% Year to date +3.09%
  • Friday's close Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.2% For the Week +1.2% Year to date -7.02%
  • Friday's close Spain's Ibex, -1.3% For the Week -0.24% Year to date -16.35%
  • Friday's close UK's FTSE 100, -0.45% For the Week -0.32% Year to date -13.44%

Highlights - Asia

  • In Asia stocks.

Highlights - Australia

  • Stocks were 

Highlights - Canada

  • Stocks were 

Highlights - Emerging Markets

  • EM equities were higher mostly.

IPO mania is back in full force with Snowflake an indication of, which more than doubled on debut.

From rebalance as a natural reversion after the bull mania we have surged with another speculative rush. This after Dow ended the second quarter with a 17.8% gain, the biggest quarterly rally since the first quarter of 1987, when it ripped up 21.6%. IS that enough to rebalnce and go higher? The S&P 500 had its biggest one-quarter surge since the fourth quarter of 1998,  soaring nearly 20%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 30.6% for the quarter, its best quarterly performance since 1999.

Stock valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios are near their highest level since the 2000 dot-com boom.

Biggest SPX Stock Winners and Losers Last Week

 

S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis via @KnovaWave

The SPX spat to new all time highs after the PFE news to consolidate back to the previous high and 7/8 Murrey Math Daily with a kiss of life, We have a number of alternatives ABCDE, Continuation of Wave 1 of 5 or the higher degree C,  Keep it simple  support is Tenkan and Kijun as Chikou rebalances. Important to note the high was a retest of the initial breakdown .

The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages.  Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in.

SPX D 12 18 2020

Weekly SPX spat the 50 wma and Kijun powerfully in a 1-2 to test the break trend (white) - now resistance with MM 8/8 to +2/8. Major support is top of channel and Tenkan. We look for 3 waves down and reactions to keep it simple with the alternatives in the daily.  Keep an eye on the putcall ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as chickou rebalances

SPX W 12 18 2020

A reminder that Apple Inc $AAPL, Microsoft Corp $MSFT, Amazon.com Inc $AMZN, Facebook Inc $FB, and Google-parent Alphabet Inc $GOOGL make up approximately 23% of the total weight of the S&P 500. With that comes gyrations that are an outsized impact on broader markets.

Semiconductors SMH

SMH W 12 18 2020

Apple $AAPL

AAPL W 12 18 2020

Amazon $AMZN

AMZN W 12 18 2020

Energy and Commodities

Highights

  • Oil hit a nine-month high on Friday with a seventh straight weekly gain. Brent crude gained 1.48% to settle at $52.26 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled 1.53% higher at $49.10 per barrel.
  • Risk markets continue to respond to a Conronvirus outbreak and failed negotiations between Congress and the White House over an additional economic stimulus package to boost economic demand.
  • U.S. producers production still under pre Laura levels.
  • Higher crude prices prompt some U.S. producers start drilling again with rigs up for the ninth week in a row.

BDI Freight Index

BDI W 12 18 2020

Copper

Copper W 12 18 2020

US Crude Oil (WTI)

In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here. he March breakdown, Support Tenkan and Kijun. In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here.

WTI D 12 18 2020

WTI after it's huge run continues to rebalance chikou indicative of extreme crowd behavior in a series of fractals. We have completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watch 3 develop to confirm.

 These are special times, recall "After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications." Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price.  

WTI W 12 18 2020

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

US Natural Gas continues to work the lows that were either (5) or (iii) of (5). After a b or ii down we have bounced over tenkan and Kijun into cloud. Key is that 3 wave low. Above top of cloud. So far consistent failed breaks despite the strength of spitting the previous low and -2/8 with an island reversal to test the Kijun and downtrend line but fell back to Tenkan The big question is was that a completed move down there or a 3? Support at cloud.  

NG D 12 18 2020

Natty continues in large sideways pattern between weekly kijun and tenkan as they suppress. Above Cloud and 50wma. Support is downward channel and previous low. Talking fractals, remember the tenkan/kijun kiss of death brought it down from the $2 range. Much work here churning away. .

NG W 12 18 2020

Key Energy Reports

 

Precious Metals

Highlights

  • Spot Gold was little changed at $1,840 (up 21.2%).
  • Silver declined 0.9% to $24.092 (up 34.4%).

Gold

Gold (AUG) fell 0.11% to settle at $1,801.9 but gained 0.66% for the week kGold exudes strength after it back tested the previous wave 3 after finally cracked the Tenkan after correcting in 3 waves from 1556 to Murrey Math +3/8. In sight of the intraday high of $1765.43 reached on May 18. We have overcome the negative divergence between the weekly chikou, Silver spread and the recent highs. Support Tenkan & Kijun. From there does the 5 play out? Watch Fibs and chikou.

Gold W 12 18 2020

Silver

Silver  did a fractal of the sharp C up to breakdown level above the cloud fed by divergence from gold reverting. no  Silver reverseds with much more violent impulse than gold . Given that we have to repsect this is a iii  but  here is also a chance this is an A  

Silver W 12 18 2020

Forex Markets

Highlights

  • For the week,  the U.S. dollar index The U.S. Dollar Index Friday increased 0.2% to 90.01.
  • Majors for the week.
  • Minors for the week

Australian Dollar - AUDUSD

Aussie dollar continues higher after it competed 5 waves in emotive  fashion. with vigor spitting the 100% panic muster. It has closed over the 50 Wma in 5 waves Resistance cloud is a long way off.  Support Tenkan and Kijun. From here we watch for 2 or X

AUD W 12 18 2020

New Zealand Dollar - NZDUSD

The Kiwi mirrored the AUD and has closed over the panic breakdown (0%) correcting all of the panic muster wave. We are now above the Tenkan, which is pivotal. Resistance 50wma

NZD W 12 18 2020

Canadian Dollar - USDCAD

The Loonie continues to correct in ABC after spitting the 261% Fib & Weekly 8/8 after 5 waves lower. We closed at the old 100% 61.8% confluence. Use Fib s for support and resisitance until Tenkan and Kijun catch up, 

CAD W 12 18 2020

Euro - EURUSD

The Euro tested and held both the channel and cloud spits after so many false breaks to close at its best level since the BRexit spike. We are still in 3 waves so we need to see development for continuation. Resistance is Fibs as marked.  Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance and Kijun above. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility. 

EUR W 12 18 2020

MXN W 12 18 2020EuroPound - EURGBP

Back testing top of outer band and tenkan of Brexit. Johnson price reaction.after its classic ABC out of failure following the X wave. Tenkan will give us a clue if normalcy is returning to the channel trade.

EURGBP W 12 18 2020

Japanese Yen - USDJPY

Japanese Yen still stuck in channel trade, a series of failures and sharp bounces after X led 3 wave panic. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun Tenkan kiss. Use your #USDJPY Murrey 6/8 0/8 grid for now. #EURJPY #AUDJPY will determine risk on/off

JPY W 12 18 2020

 Mexican Peso USDMXN

The Peso has been correcting in ABC since it collapsed and spat 261% right back to the 100% Fib  We have seen violent moves with outisde uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise. 

MXN W 12 18 2020


  Turkish Lire USDTRY

USDTRY after completing the large 5 waves corrected back to the channel acceleration point and finished testing Tenkan. The lira has stabilized somewhat over the last month going above 8 to the dollar, before paring losses. Alternative is we are still in Wave 5 and this is another 1- Kijun support well above cloud  Impulse is needed to pull away from here.  Keep an eye on geopolitical risk factors. 

TRY W 12 18 2020

Bitcoin

Nothing new for Bitcoin, more of the same as it continues to falter after 61.8% spit. Well under the tenkan and kijun. Needs to test downtrend for higher correction. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud - we said be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.

Bitcoin W 12 18 2020

Bond Markets (and Fed Watch)

Investment-grade bond funds saw inflows of $2.898 billion, while junk bond fund flows were only slightly positive (from Lipper).

Highlights - Treasuries

  • U.S. Treasuries finished the session mixed in a quiet session for bonds.
  • The 2-yr yield decreased two basis points to 0.11%,
  • The 10-yr yield increased two basis points to 0.95%.

TNX W 12 18 2020

 

All good while markets hold up but take note that the loosest financial conditions in history have supported a record $1.4 trillion of corporate debt issuance. While easy credit availability has supported economic activity,  funding new investment whilst keeping vulnerable companies afloat. THe combination of urban shifts through virus and riots fears has fueled a booming MBS market and record low mortgage rates pushing strong housing markets into Bubble risk territory.

Highights - Mortgages

Highlights - Federal Reserve

Highlights - European Bonds

Last Friday we saw a record $18 trillion of negative-yielding global bonds. including over-indebted Portugal and Spain). Bund yields at negative 0.64%. .

Highlights - Asian Bonds

 

On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

Fed Financial Stability Report Risks May 2020

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Trade Imbalances IMF

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Economic and Geopolitical Watch

Job Losses

With the lack of stimulus and continued lockdowns initial jobless claims jumped to the highest level in three months last week, in what was a second straight weekly increase. November's job report again showed the effect of return to school as highlighted by well over 1 million women leaving the workforce and many men also to take care of their children not returning to work. What is clear is the disconnect from the realities by pundits, particarlarly partisn biased rhetoric of the true damage to the economy, the social fabric and the selling of that as a new normal. Covid19 brought with it a new reality of brutal times for workers.

Over 14.5 million are collecting traditional jobless benefits, up from 1.7 million a year ago, with no end in sight. on Thursday, the Labor Department reported under 800,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits for the second time since the crisis.  With the Covid shutdown we lost over 22 million jobs in March and April. The September employment report, the last before the election, showed a slower pace of job growth than in August. There were 616,000 nonfarm payrolls, from 1.37 million in August. The unemployment rate expected dropped to 7.9% from 8.4%.As economies slowly reopened, the economy generated than 12 million jobs in May through September. Still a huge shortfall in jobs, and the big question is will they come back?

US Politics

The focus is on the Georgia Senate runoff-races. Democrats need to win both seats to have a split Senate, with VP Harris having the tie-breaking vote. Most political experts expect the Republicans to win at least one of the races and keep control of the Senate. The market certainly expects such an outcome.

Biden has proposed increasing the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, potentially weighing on companies’ earnings. A separate proposal to tax capital gains and dividends as ordinary income could prompt some investors to sell winners in order to lock in lower tax rates. The US coronavirus economic relief COVID-19 stimulus package has dragged on for months with House speaker even admitting she refused to pass it as it would help Trump win the election. Gives you an idea of where and why US politics and the national devide are what they are, if you weren't aware.

Stay alert to the political and geopolitical shifts with the world in flux. Government policies related to the environment, trade and tech sit high on the watch list.  Political and economic agendas that Influence policy-making is top of the list. For the US it is not just external threats, including increased political tensions between countries but also internal threats highlighted by the partisan impeachment devide. Politics influence all, directly or indirectly. 

The virus and psychological affect on domestic and trade relationships have impacted growth strategies with unexpected consequences   In a  fully fledged stock mania, nothing matters until it does. That is the feral nature of greed.

Global Watch

Hot Spots

  • Geopolitical tensions with China and India are on the rise as China increases military hardware near the China and India's Himalaya border, a potential negative shock not priced by markets.
  • US prepared to sanction Turkey over its purchase of Russian S-400 air defence systems last year.
  • China tightened its grip on Hong kong and threats with Taiwan continue. New US sanctions on China officials and telcos. China detained a Bloomberg reporter in Beijing this week.
  • Russia is showing the affects of low energy prices, filtering into the socio economic dynamic
  • Still no BREXIT trade agreement With less than two weeks left to go before Britain exits the European Union when the transition period ends on Dec. 31 there is still no trade agreement in place, putting a trillion dollars worth of trade at risk from tariffs and quotas. The talks are still deadlocked on two issues, the EU’s fishing rights in British waters and creating a so-called level playing field providing fair competition rules for both sides.
  • For emerging markets the lower US dollar is helping the Fragile 5. Argentina and Turkey are still red letter risks with Covid however. Voters will also be going to the polls in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.
  • Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?

    If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

  • Continued volatility with the engulfing uncertainty of the Coronavirus and in commodity markets, particularly in oil and other commodities, not to mention unrest in Iran, Libya and Iraq. 

 

Trade Wars

  • Despite all the US and Chinese rhetoric we are led to believe trade talks between U.S. and China are still expected to recommit to the Phase one deal. China has increased purchases of U.S. oil ahead of their trade deal review, according to Reuters.On a more upbeat note, the UK struck its first post-Brexit trade deal with Japan as it seeks to make a success of leaving the EU.
  • Trump did say Phase 2 will be difficult and he sees the virus more important then trade with China..
  • In addition to rising tensions with China, the United States Trade Representative said last month said that the USTR is considering a new round of tariffs on $3.1 billion in European exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K..

Fat Tail Virus Risk

Following Pfizer's vaccine last week Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine won a key vote on Thursday, clearing the path to an emergency use authorization and rollout in the coming days. Moderna’s drug, like Pfizer’s, is a two-dose vaccine and was found in clinical trials to be more than 94% effective. The U.S. is recording at least 216,600 new Covid-19 cases and at least 2,600 virus-related deaths each day, based on a seven-day average calculated by CNBC using Johns Hopkins University data. COVID has methodically dispersed itself in areas like California and New York. Troubling development for hospitals and healthcare systems facing limited capacity and scarce resources. Ominously, outbreaks have slammed many northern states early in the winter season. Over the coming weeks, the virus can be expected to shadow cooler weather advancing south. 

Several countries are tightening restrictions and contemplating lockdowns as infections accelerate, prompting concerns about the impact on world economies attempting to recover. Earlier this month when adjusting for population, the number of new coronavirus infections in Europe has now overtaken the United States in new cases per million people, based on a seven-day average.

Covid Global cases 11 15 2020

  • AstraZeneca and Johnson and Johnson (J&J) announced they had received permission to resume trials on a COVID-19 vaccine. AstraZeneca was on track to have a vaccine ready before the end of the year, while J&J had said its candidate would be ready by early next year.
  • The US deals with a number of pharmaceutical giants have topped roughly $10.79 billion as part of Operation Warp Speed, a program led by several departments within the federal government to accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of vaccines and treatments to fight the coronavirus.
  • The operation aims to provide at least 300 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine by January 2021. The companies are Moderna Johnson & Johnson Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline Pfizer and BioNTech Novavax and AstraZeneca
  • Hopes and fears of reopening can outweigh mixed earnings results. No surprise after increased testing, weeks of protesting, people in large airconditioning indoors we have record daily U.S. cases. The U.S. reported 1000 deaths 4 days in a row with coronavirus cases,
  • There does appear to a concerted effort to put the blame on an economy reopening and miraclously the mass ongoing priotests have nothing to do with that. Take that for what it is worth. There is little mention of the younger age group in the new cases and much lower mortality rate. Fear is the feature. Use commonsense in your own protection, spreading and decision making.

 

Banks

  • Bank earnings season last quarter with J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup, BlackRock, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Bank of New York Mellon underscored the cheap money they have access to, yet not distrubted to main street.
  • Morgan Stanley continues in its aim to become the leading wealth and investment services firm with another aggressive aquisition. $MS announced an intention to buy Eaton Vance $EV for $7 billion. This follows the bank completing its $13 bln acquisition of E*TRADE $ETFC.
  • In times of recession and credit tightening Banks risk becomes problematic, though since 2008 the World's Central Banks have been quick to loosen the strings. Add massive QE and purcahse failing assets.
  • Banks are benefiting from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission intending to ease the Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from making large investments into venture capital. The Volcker Rule was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the new changes could potentially free up billions in bank capital. Bank stocks rose. otal Non-Financial Debt (NFD) expanded $737 billion during Q3 to a record $60.113 trillion. Through the first three quarters of 2020, NFD surged an unprecedented $5.740 trillion, or 14.1% annualized. NFD was up $6.181 trillion over the past year (11.5%) and $8.817 trillion (16.7%) over two years. For perspective, NFD expanded on average $1.830 trillion annually over the past decade. NFD has ballooned 71% since the end of 2008.
  • Banks are responding to the Federal Reserve in their annual stress test capped bank dividend payments and suspended share-buybacks for the third quarter.

BE AWARE: Stay rational and be prepared for many alternatives, either way. With crisis comes opportunity. From a market point of view this is not unprecedented, many other bubbles have popped with similar results. What is unprecedented is the pandemic, the mass media and social media fear mongering, the massive QE and printing and the strange era of entitlement and no responsibilty fed down from politicians to the youth of today for electoral purproses.

Put all that together and we see the result.  Again this isn't unprecedented just a different catalyst and fuel. Stay tuned. take a breath and think clearly. Oh and now we have the riots to throw on the kindling ....

  • Expect the Fed Stability Report warning on what happens if the pandemic worsens to be the go tto by Fed speakers (We are all watching to see if I spike aftet the Floyd protests and riots with no social distancing).
  • The backdrop is the Covid-19 crisis. Despite that the stockmarket is up over 40% from lows and stubborn bears and bulls alike are frustrated based on cognitive biases.
  • We continually focus on overcoming our biases and as the accompanying chart highlights stocks and the economy are NOT the same thing despite what we are told by our influencers and biased or selective recalls.

 

"Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch"

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead - Have a Trading Plan

Central Bank Watch speeches, reports and rate moves

Monday: December 21, 2020

  • None Seen

Tuesday December 22, 2020

  • None Seen

Wednesday December 23, 2020:

  • None Seen

Thursday December 24, 2020

  • None Seen

Friday December 25, 2020

  • Tentative JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks

Improvements in some economic indicators, such as home sales, manufacturing activity and  in employment data have bolstered investor confidence and helped extend the rally in stocks. Support in markets comes from the Fed’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities.

Economic Events in the Week Ahead:

This week we get Third quarter GDP updates for the US, UK, Spain and Netherlands with alongside US personal income and outlays, housing and durable goods orders, Eurozone consumer morale, and Japan and Australia retail trade numbers. Central banks in China, Thailand and Turkey will deliver their monetary policy decisions.

Sunday, December 20, 2020

  • 19:30 AUD Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
  • 20:30 CNY PBoC Loan Prime Rate
  • 21:00 NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY)

Monday: December 21, 2020

  • 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Nov) 
  • 05:00 EUR Business and Consumer Survey
  • 05:00 EUR Business Climate
  • 05:00 EUR Consumer Inflation Expectation
  • 05:00 EUR Selling Price Expectations
  • 05:00 EUR Services Sentiment
  • 05:00 EUR Industrial Sentiment
  • 06:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Dec)
  • 06:00 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Nov)
  • 08:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
  • 10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Dec)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction 
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 20-Year Bond Auction
  • 15:00 NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Q1)
  • 16:00 KRW PPI (MoM) 
  • 19:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM)

Tuesday December 22, 2020

  • 02:00 GBP Current Account (Q3)
  • 02:00 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 02:00 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (Jan)
  • 04:30 GBP Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 08:30 USD Core PCE Prices (Q3)
  • 08:30 USD Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 08:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 08:30 USD PCE Prices (Q3)
  • 08:30 USD Real Consumer Spending (Q3)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
  • 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (Nov)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Services Index (Dec)
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 18:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • 19:30 AUD Housing Credit (Nov)
  • 19:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Nov)

Wednesday December 23, 2020:

  • 00:00 JPY Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Nov)
  • 00:00 JPY Leading Index
  • 00:00 SGD CPI (YoY) (Nov)
  • 02:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
  • 02:45 EUR French PPI (MoM) (Nov)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish PPI (YoY)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Business Confidence (Dec)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence (Dec)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Delinquency Rates (QoQ)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:30 USD PCE price index (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:30 CAD GDP (MoM) (Oct)
  • 09:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
  • 09:00 CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin 1
  • 0:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec)
  • 10:00 USD New Home Sales (Nov)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 12:00 USD Dallas Fed PCE (Nov)
  • 12:00 USD Natural Gas Storage

Thursday December 24, 2020:

  • All Day Holiday Germany - Christmas Eve All Day
  • Holiday Switzerland - Christmas All Day
  • Holiday Italy - Christmas All Day Holiday Brazil - Christmas
  • Holiday Singapore - Christmas Eve - Early close at 12:15
  • Holiday United Kingdom - Christmas - Early close at 12:30
  • Holiday France - Christmas - Early close at 12:30
  • Holiday New Zealand - Christmas Eve - Early close at 12:45 '
  • Holiday United States - Christmas - Early close at 13:00
  • Holiday Canada - Christmas - Early close at 13:00
  • Holiday Spain - Christmas - Early close at 14:00
  • Holiday Australia - Christmas Eve - Early close at 14:10
  • 00:00 SGD Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Nov)
  • 08:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) (Nov)
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 18:30 JPY Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (YoY)
  • 18:30 JPY Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Dec)
  • 18:30 JPY Unemployment Rate (Nov)
  • 18:50 JPY Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)

Friday December 25, 2020

  • All Day Holiday United States - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday United Kingdom - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday Germany - Christmas Day
  • All Day Holiday Switzerland - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday Italy - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday France - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday Spain - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday Singapore - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday Hong Kong - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday Australia - Christmas Day
  • All Day Holiday India - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday Brazil - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday Canada - Christmas
  • All Day Holiday South Korea - Christmas '
  • All Day Holiday New Zealand - Christmas Day
  • All Day Holiday South Africa - Christmas
  • Tentative JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  • 00:00 JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (Nov)
  • 00:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (Nov)  

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2020. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. 

Earnings Week Ahead

Big banks kicked off third-quarter earnings reports on Oct. 13, helping to set the tone for the broader U.S. stock market, as businesses cope with the eighth month of the pandemic. Banks reaped the rewards of the initial public offerings and record corporate borrowings during the pandemic. Investors (and algos) will focus pn the conference calls and outlooks. Everyone is expecting the worse. We will see critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals.

Last week we heard from MDU Mdu Resources AVNT Avient HEXO QD Qudian CSBR Champions Oncology TC Toro IDCC Interdigital CNTG LEN Lennar ABM Abm Industries MLHR Herman Miller QTT Qutoutiao ACAM Acamar DL China Distance Education Holdings LLY Eli Lilly BDC Belden MTSC MTS Systems INFU Infusystems UEC Uranium Energy NDSN Nordson ASPU Aspen Group AOUT American Outdoor Brands DTEA Davidstea GTIM Good Times Restaurants and NKE Nike

This week we hear from:

  • Monday starts us off with FDS FactSet Research Systems LESL Leslie's EPAC Enerpac Tool Group Corp. BHP BHP Group CIG Comp En De Mn AVXL Anavex Life Sciences Corp. SAMA Schultze Special Purpose Acquisition VVPR VivoPower International JT Jianpu ARKR Ark Restaurants CNSP CNS Pharmaceuticals HEI Heico Corporation/li>
  • Tuesday with earnings from CTAS Cintas Corporation KMX CarMax TIMB TIM S.A. NEOG Neogen LORL Loral Space and Communications
  • Wednesday Earnings Include: PAYX Paychex, Inc CYD China Yuchai GENC Gencor Industries ESSA ESSA Bancorp ENOB Enochian Biosciences OCUP Ocuphire Pharma HGSH China HGS Real Estate CVU CPI Aerostructures ANVS Annovis Bio
  • Thursday Earnings Include: RLAY Relay Therapeutics, SINA Sina Corporation DEN Denbury JFU 9F Inc. NBSE NeuBase Therapeutics SECO Secoo Holding Limited NUZE NuZee GSMG Glory Star New Media RZLT Rezolute GNPX Genprex, METX Meten EdtechX Education Group AVCO Avalon GloboCare Corp. KZIA Kazia Therapeutics Limited
  • Friday Earnings include

IPO Week Ahead

The US IPO market has no companies on the calendar to price in the coming week witht he Christmas holidays. However, there is still a possibility that certain SPACs or Chinese deals launch early in the week to price by Christmas Eve.  Be on the lookout for filings over the holiday break as companies gear up to capitalize on the hot IPO market starting in 2021.

Street research is expected for 3 companies in the coming week. On Monday, 12/21: HF Enterprises (HFEN), Ozon (OZON), and Vision Marine (VMAR).

Lock-up periods will be expiring for seven companies. On Wednesday, 12/23: Agora (API), Akouos (AKUS), Albertsons (ACI), Ebang International (EBON), Fusion Pharmaceuticals (FUSN), and PolyPid (PYPD). On Thursday, 12/24: Amesite (AMST). .

IPO data via Renaissance Capital

 

-comment section below data-

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

  • Into The Vortex - EIA Reports Build of +8 Bcf in Natural Gas Inventories
  • Around The Barrel - EIA Reports Crude Oil +4277k bbls Build v API -5147k bbls Draw
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report November 2020
  • EIA Expects Natural Gas Prices To Rise On Rising Domestic Demand, LNG Exports and Reduced Production
  • EIA Says New Oil Drilling Activity Production Will Not Offset Existing Wells Declines
  • US Employment Continues To Recover From Coronavirus Lockdown
  • Federal Reserve Leaves Rates and Bond Buying Unchanged After Election
  • U.S. New Auto Sales Fell For First Time Since April in Uncertain Times
  • Mexico Business Confidence Improves With Peso and Easing Covid Restrictions
  • RBA Cuts Australian Rates To Record Low 0.25%, Targets Yield Curve
  • US Manufacturing Continues Recovery, New Orders Highest Since January 2004 

Stocks

  • Chevron Reports Profit Boosted by Capital Spending down 48% Operating Expenses down 12%
  • ExxonMobil Posts Third Straight Quarterly Loss But Seeing Early Demand Recovery

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Note these charts, opinons news and estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!

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