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US Politics
 


 Strange times But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.

Politics of Hate, Stimulus, Earnings

The Week That Was - What Lies Ahead?

Stock Markets

  • On repeat...Another week where politics of hate ramped up a notch, the hate between Pelosi/Biden and Trump is palpable and has raised even further the partisan blinders of both sides.
  • Dow closed up 0.39% for its first positive day in four. Dow closed up 0.07% for its third straight positive week for the first time since July 17. Dow is up 0.24% year to date, going positive once again in 2020 Dow is 3.25% below its intraday all-time high of 29,568.57 from Feb. 12
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.36% for its fourth straight negative day Nasdaq closed up 0.79% this week for its fourth straight weekly gain Nasdaq is up 30.08% this year
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.01% for its first positive day in four S&P 500 closed up 0.19% for its third straight positive week
  • Seven out of 11 sectors were positive Friday, led by utilities which gained 1.09% The most negative sector Friday was energy, which dropped 2.31% for its worst day since Oct. 1.
  • Year-to-date the NASDAQ still outperforms massively,
  • In Europe for the week U.K.'s FTSE equities index fell 1.6% (down 21.5%). France's CAC40 slipped 0.2% (down 17.4%). The German DAX equities index dropped 1.1% (down 2.6%). Spain's IBEX 35 equities index fell 1.5% (down 28.3%). Italy's FTSE MIB index declined 1.0% (down 17.5%). U.K.'s FTSE equities index fell 1.6% (down 21.5%).
  • Japan's Nikkei Equities Index declined 0.9% (down 1.0% y-t-d). Japanese 10-year "JGB" yields declined a basis point to 0.02% (up 3bps y-t-d).
  • EM equities were mixed. Brazil's Bovespa index gained 0.8% (down 15.0%), while Mexico's Bolsa lost 1.6% (down 13.0%). South Korea's Kospi index dropped 2.1% (up 6.5%). India's Sensex equities index fell 1.3% (down 3.1%). China's Shanghai Exchange rose 2.0% (up 9.4%). Turkey's Borsa Istanbul National 100 index jumped 2.3% (up 4.2%). Russia's MICEX equities index declined 1.2% (down 8.1%).
  • Investment-grade bond funds saw inflows of $6.426 billion, and junk bond funds posted positive flows of $2.204 billion (from Lipper). 
  • IPO mania is back in full force with Snowflake an indication of, which more than doubled on debut.
  • This quarters slight reversal was a natural reversion after the bull mania after the Dow ended the second quarter with a 17.8% gain, the biggest quarterly rally since the first quarter of 1987, when it ripped up 21.6%. The S&P 500 had its biggest one-quarter surge since the fourth quarter of 1998, soaring nearly 20%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 30.6% for the quarter, its best quarterly performance since 1999.
  • Stock valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios are near their highest level since the 2000 dot-com boom.


 US Stock Indices Performance

US Indices W 10 16 2020 

Oil and Gas

  • Oil posted 2 straight weeks of gains,
  • WTI (NOV) settled down 0.20% at $40.88 WTI closed up 0.69% this week for its second straight weekly gain WTI is down 33.05% this year, on pace for its worst year since 2014 when WTI lost 45.87%
  • Brent (DEC) settled down 0.53% at $42.93 Brent closed up 0.19% this week for its second straight weekly gain Brent is down 34.95% this year, on pace for its worst year since 2014 when Brent lost 48.26%
  • Risk markets continue to respond to ongoing negotiations between Congress and the White House over an additional economic stimulus package to boost economic demand.
  • U.S. producers production still under pre Laura levels.
  • Natural gas futures rallied at the end of the week and gained 1.2% (up 27% YTD).
  • Higher crude prices prompt some U.S. producers start drilling again with rigs up for the thirs week in a row.

Gold

  • Gold (DEC) settled down 0.13% at $1,906.4 Gold closed down 1.03% this week for its first negative week in three Gold is up 25.17% this year, on pace for its best year since 2010 when gold gained 29.67%.

Bond Markets

  • U.S. Treasuries finished the session Friday on a lower note.
  • The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 0.15%, and the 10-yr yield increased one basis point to 0.74%.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.2% to 93.71.
  • Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped six bps to a record low 2.81% (down 88bps y-o-y). Fifteen-year rates declined two bps to 2.35% (down 80bps).
  • Five-year hybrid ARM rates added a basis point to 2.90% (down 45bps). Bankrate's survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-year fixed rates down two bps to 3.06% (down 106bps).
  • In Europe Greek 10-year yields fell eight bps to 0.78% (down 65bps y-t-d). Ten-year Portuguese yields dropped seven bps to 0.11% (down 33bps). Italian 10-year yields fell seven bps to 0.65% (down 76bps). Spain's 10-year yields declined five bps to 0.12% (down 34bps). German bund yields sank 10 bps to negative 0.62% (down 44bps). French yields dropped eight bps to negative 0.35% (down 56bps). The French to German 10-year bond spread widened two to 27 bps. U.K. 10-year gilt yields fell 10 bps to 0.18% (down 64bps). U.K.'s FTSE equities index fell 1.6% (down 21.5%).
  • The Fed QE infinity programme is a yield curve control policy with long government bond yields coming down. Bond supply and continued central bank resistance to more negative policy rates limits the move. Central banks have been cutting rates and adding liquidity to avoid systematic failure. Where to from here? 

 TNX W 10 16 2020

 

On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

Fed Financial Stability Report Risks May 2020

Job Losses

September’s employment report  showed 661,000 jobs added in the month below the 800,000 expected. What we garnered from the anlaysts is a complete miss of the effect of return to school as highlighted by well over 1 million women leaving the workforce and many men also to take care of their children not returning to work. What is clear is the disconnect from the realities by pundits, particarlarly partisn biased rhetoric of the true damage to the economy, the social fabric and the selling of that as a new normal. Covid19 brought with it a new reality of brutal times for workers.

Over 14.5 million are collecting traditional jobless benefits, up from 1.7 million a year ago, with no end in sight. on Thursday, the Labor Department reported another 800,000 plus Americans applied for unemployment benefits. With the Covid shutdown we lost over 22 million jobs in March and April. The September employment report, the last before the election, showed a slower pace of job growth than in August. There were 616,000 nonfarm payrolls, from 1.37 million in August. The unemployment rate expected dropped to 7.9% from 8.4%.As economies slowly reopened, the economy generated than 12 million jobs in May through September. Still a huge shortfall in jobs, and the big question is will they come back?

November US Election

The death of Supreme Court judge Ginsburg opens up a new factor ahead of the election with the next appointment with Democrats pushing for after the election, Republicans likely before.

““What we have... is a lot of uncertainty related to the electi on, a lot of uncertainty related to stimulus,” said Townswick. He does not expect the political back and forth over the appointment of a new Supreme Court justice, following the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, to impact the markets. “But the stimulus and election, people can say that’s going to directly relate to earnings,” he said. Townswick said the sell-off so far is not unusual for September, historically the worst month of the year.

The upcoming presidential election is a huge another risk with the intense split along Partisan lines of much of America. RealClearPolitics has President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joseph Biden by 8.1 points in the polls. A potential for a resurgence in Covid cases will see Trump not benefiting from an economic recovery, and as a result a better chance of Biden being elected. Biden is representative of uncertainty.

Stay alert to the political and geopolitical shifts with the world in flux. Government policies related to the environment, trade and tech sit high on the watch list.  Political and economic agendas that Influence policy-making is top of the list. For the US it is not just external threats, including increased political tensions between countries but also internal threats highlighted by the partisan impeachment devide. Politics influence all, directly or indirectly. 

The virus and psychological affect on domestic and trade relationships have impacted growth strategies with unexpected consequences .  In a  fully fledged stock mania, nothing matters until it does. That is the feral nature of greed.

  • Democrats and Republicans have been far apart in terms of the contents of any stimulus package. Key is the $600 supplemental weekly aid for the unemployed that expired on July 31, and Republicans want to cut it to $200 a week while Democrats want to keep current levels.
  • The two parties are also still far apart on the size of the package, after initially starting out with Democrats at $3 trillion and Republicans with $1 trillion and the latest $300 billion. 
  • President Trump signed an exective order to boost benefits by $300/week if individual states pay an extra $100/week.Additinally there was an order to defer payroll taxes The move also diminishes the urgency to make a deal and gives an indication of Republican strategy.
  • Trump’s polling deficit is larger than any incumbent since George H.W. Bush in 1992.
  • Biden has said he would seek to raise the U.S. corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, which could potentially eat into profits and weigh on stock prices
  • The first Presidential debate is not until September 29th, so the focus will fall on the several upcoming campaigning events.

Geopolitics

  • Geopolitical tensions with China and India are on the rise as China increases military hardware near the China and India's Himalaya border, a potential negative shock not priced by markets.
  • War between Armenia and Azberjazan has reopened tensions in the region.
  • China tightened its grip on Hong kong and threats with Taiwan continued.
  • Russia is showing the affects of low energy prices, filtering into the socio economic dynamic
  • Brexit and the EU is bubbling along with increasing antagonism with UK PM Johnson wanting  new deal based on Northen Island security anf freedom.

Geopolitically the US-Sino rhetoric is heating up with TikTok, Hong Kong and "China Virus". We expect continued volatility with the engulfing uncertainty of the Coronavirus and in commodity markets, particularly in oil and other commodities, not to mention unrest in Iran, Libya and Iraq. 

Trade Wars

  • Despite all the US and Chinese rhetoric we are led to believe trade talks between U.S. and China are still expected to recommit to the Phase one deal. China has increased purchases of U.S. oil ahead of their trade deal review, according to Reuters.On a more upbeat note, the UK struck its first post-Brexit trade deal with Japan as it seeks to make a success of leaving the EU.
  • Trump did say Phase 2 will be difficult and he sees the virus more important then trade with China..
  • In addition to rising tensions with China, the United States Trade Representative said last month said that the USTR is considering a new round of tariffs on $3.1 billion in European exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K..

Fat Tail Virus Risk

In the U.S. coronavirus cases were growing by 5% or more in 38 states, as of Friday, according to Johns Hopkins University that uses a weekly average to smooth out the reporting. The nation is averaging roughly 55,000 new coronavirus cases every day, a more than 16% increase compared with a week ago.

Several countries are tightening restrictions and contemplating lockdowns as infections accelerate, prompting concerns about the impact on world economies attempting to recover. 

Covid US EU 10 18 2020

When adjusting for population, the number of new coronavirus infections in Europe has now overtaken the United States, with Europe reporting 187 new cases per million people, based on a seven-day average, compared with 162 new cases per million people in the U.S. as of Thursday. Europe  is reporting an average of roughly 97,000 new cases per day, up 44% from one week ago.

Will virus cases level off in late spring and vanish so things can get back to some sort of normality by late summer? Or will there be a second wave of cases during the autumn/winter, forcing new lockdowns or leading to fear and voluntary social distancing (a W-recession scenario). For how long are you immune after having had the virus, a long time or a couple of months? Will there be a vaccine and when?

  • The US deals with a number of pharmaceutical giants have topped roughly $10.79 billion as part of Operation Warp Speed, a program led by several departments within the federal government to accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of vaccines and treatments to fight the coronavirus.
  • The operation aims to provide at least 300 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine by January 2021. The companies are Moderna Johnson & Johnson Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline Pfizer and BioNTech Novavax and AstraZeneca
  • Hopes and fears of reopening can outweigh mixed earnings results. No surprise after increased testing, weeks of protesting, people in large airconditioning indoors we have record daily U.S. cases. The U.S. reported 1000 deaths 4 days in a row with coronavirus cases,
  • There does appear to a concerted effort to put the blame on an economy reopening and miraclously the mass ongoing priotests have nothing to do with that. Take that for what it is worth. There is little mention of the younger age group in the new cases and much lower mortality rate. Fear is the feature. Use commonsense in your own protection, spreading and decision making.

Banks

BE AWARE: Stay rational and be prepared for many alternatives, either way. With crisis comes opportunity. From a market point of view this is not unprecedented, many other bubbles have popped with similar results. What is unprecedented is the pandemic, the mass media and social media fear mongering, the massive QE and printing and the strange era of entitlement and no responsibilty fed down from politicians to the youth of today for electoral purproses.

Put all that together and we see the result.  Again this isn't unprecendented just a different catalyst and fuel. Stay tuned. take a breath and think clearly. Oh and now we have the riots to throw on the kindling ....

  • Expect the Fed Stability Report warning on what happens if the pandemic worsens to be the go tto by Fed speakers (We are all watching to see if I spike aftet the Floyd protests and riots with no social distancing).
  • The backdrop is the Covid-19 crisis. Despite that the stockmarket is up over 40% from lows and stubborn bears and bulls alike are frustrated based on cognitive biases.
  • We continually focus on overcoming our biases and as the accompanying chart highlights stocks and the economy are NOT the same thing despite what we are told by our influencers and biased or selective recalls.

"Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch"

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead - Have a Trading Plan

Central Bank Watch speeches, reports and rate moves

  • Monday: 06:00 German Buba Monthly Report 08:00 Fed Chair Powell Speaks 08:45 ECB President Lagarde Speaks 10:05 BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks 10:30 BoC Business Outlook Survey 11:00 BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks 11:45 FOMC Member Clarida Speaks 15:00 FOMC Member Harker Speaks 19:00 RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks 20:30 RBA Meeting Minutes 21:30 PBoC Loan Prime Rate
  • Tuesday 09:00 FOMC Member Williams Speaks 10:50 FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • Wednesday 08:10 MPC Member Ramsden Speaks 08:50 FOMC Member Brainard Speaks 10:00 FOMC Member Mester Speaks 14:00 Beige Book 18:30RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
  • Thursday 04:30 BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks 05:25 BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
  • Friday 10:00 MPC Member Ramsden Speaks 1

Improvements in some economic indicators, such as home sales, manufacturing activity and  in employment data have bolstered investor confidence and helped extend the rally in stocks. Support in markets comes from the Fed’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities.

 There is some important data in the week ahead,

  • Monday:  NAHB Housing Market Index, October
  • Tuesday: Building permits, September; Housing starts, September, API Oil Inventories
  • Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended October 16; EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Federal Reserve releases Beige Book
  • Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Continuing Jobless Claims; Leading Index, September , Existing Home Sales, September; Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity Index, October EIA Natural Gas Storage
  • Friday: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, October preliminary; Markit US Services PMI, October preliminary; Markit US Composite PMI, October preliminary. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count CFTC Speculative net positions

For emerging markets the lower US dollar is helping the Fragile 5. Argentina and Turkey are still red letter risks with Covid however. Voters will also be going to the polls in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.

Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2020. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. 

Earnings Week Ahead

Big banks kicked off third-quarter earnings reports on Oct. 13, helping to set the tone for the broader U.S. stock market, as businesses cope with the eighth month of the pandemic. Banks reaped the rewards of the initial public offerings and record corporate borrowings during the pandemic. Investors (and algos) will focus pn the conference calls and outlooks. Everyone is expecting the worse. We will see critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals.

Last week we heard from Johnson & Johnson J.P. Morgan Chase Citigroup BlackRock Delta Bank of America Wells Fargo United Airlines,  UnitedHealth group Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley Walgreens Intuitive Surgical Bank of New York Mellon Schlumberger JB Hunt VF Corp among others.

  • Monday with Halliburton (HAL) before market open; IBM (IBM) after market close
  • Tuesday Earnings Include: Synchrony Financial (SYF), Albertsons (ACI), Procter & Gamble (PG), Phillip Morris International (PM), Lockheed Martin (LMT) before market open; Netflix (NFLX), Texas Instruments (TXN), Snap (SNAP) after market close
  • Wednesday Earnings Include: Nasdaq (NDAQ), Baker Hughes (BKR), Verizon (VZ), Biogen (BIIB) before market open; Whirlpool (WHR), Chipotle (CMG), Align Technology (ALGN), Equifax (EFX), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Tesla (TSLA), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Xilinx (XLNX) after market close
  • Thursday Earnings Include: Coca-Cola (KO), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Alaska Air Group (ALK), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Dow Inc. (DOW), AT&T (T), American Airlines (AAL), AllianceBernstein Holdings (AB), Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Citrix Systems (CTXS), Union Pacific (UNP) before market open; Capital One Financial (COF), Mattel (MAT), Intel (INTC)
  • Friday Earnings Include: Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN), Nielsen Holdings (NLSN) before market open

IPO Week Ahead

  • After an active September,3 IPOs and one SPAC are expected to raise $1.6 billion in the week ahead, led by leading cybersecurity brand McAfee (MCFE).
  • Taken private by Intel in 2011, McAfee (MCFE) plans to raise $759 million at a $9.6 billion market cap in its return to the public market. McAfee provides integrated security solutions against cyberattacks to consumers, enterprises, and governments. Its consumer-focused products protected over 600 million devices and its enterprise customers included 86% of the Fortune 100. The company is profitable and plans to offer a 1.7% yield at the midpoint. Despite using the IPO proceeds to pay down debt, McAfee will be highly leveraged post-offering.
  • IT infrastructure platform Datto (MSP) plans to raise $561 million at a $4.2 billion market cap. The Vista-backed company provides a family of integrated tools that enable managed service providers (MSPs) to provide security and continuity services to their SMB customers. Although the company is profitable and generated positive free cash flow in the 1H20, revenue growth has been weighed down by declining device revenue.
  • Mortgage servicer and lender Guild Holdings (GHLD) plans to raise $153 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. The company provides loan sourcing and mortgage services, and it is among the longest operating seller-servicers in the US. The company is profitable, and revenue growth accelerated in the 1H20.
  • Cormorant Asset Management’s SPAC Helix Acquisition (HLXA) plans to raise $100 million to acquire business in the healthcare industry. The company is led by Cormorant founder Bihau Chen, who serves as CEO and Chairman.

     

    -comment section below data-

    Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

    Trade Imbalances IMF

    Italy CDS
    Turkey Geopolitical

    Last Week's Big Stories

    The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

    Stocks

     

    Stock Markets

    US Major Stock Indices

     Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

     Top US Stocks W 10 16 2020
     

    S&P 500 Index via @KnovaWave

    The SPX reacted off +2/8 #MurreyMath Daily after 5 waves & quickly came back to retest it. Double top i.e a competitive C or i ? Again it tested and held Tenkan Friday. Alternatives completed C Wave or a Wave 1. Support is Kijun and cloud and Chikou rebalance. Important to note the high was a retest of the initial breakdown .

    The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages.  Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in.

    SPX D 10 16 2020 

    Weekly #SPX closed at MM +2/8 for 2nd week which is also breakdown retest. Major support is top of channel and Tenkan. Bulls looking for Tenkan to accelerate thru 200wma , bears failure. We look for 3 waves down and MM grid for wave clues. Keep an eye on the putcall ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as chickou rebalances

     SPX W 10 16 2020

    Semiconductors ETF - SMH

    SMH W 10 16 2020

     Apple $AAPL

    ( Leading underlying strength of US Indices)

    AAPL W 10 16 2020
     

     Amazon $AMZN


    AMZN W 10 16 2020
     

    Commodities and Forex

     BDI Freight Index

    BDI W 10 16 2020 

     

    Energy and Commodities

    US Crude Oil (WTI)

    In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here. he March breakdown, Support Tenkan and Kijun. In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here.

    WTI D 10 16 2020

    WTI after it's huge run continues to rebalance chikou indicative of extreme crowd behavior in a series of fractals. We have completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watch 3 develop to confirm.

    These are special times, recall "After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications." Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price.  

    WTI W 10 16 2020 

    US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

    US Natural Gas continues to work the lows that were either (5) or (iii) of (5). After a b or ii down we have bounced over tenkan and Kijun into cloud. Key is that 3 wave low. Above top of cloud. So far consistent failed breaks despite the strength of spitting the previous low and -2/8 with an island reversal to test the Kijun and downtrend line but fell back to Tenkan The big question is was that a completed move down there or a 3? Support at cloud.

     NG D 10 16 2020

    Natty continues in large sideways pattern between weekly kijun and tenkan as they suppress. Above Cloud and 50wma. Support is downward channel and previous low. Talking fractals, remember the tenkan/kijun kiss of death brought it down from the $2 range. Much work here churning away.

    .NG W 10 16 2020

       

    Precious Metals

    Gold

    Gold (AUG) fell 0.11% to settle at $1,801.9 but gained 0.66% for the week kGold exudes strength after it back tested the previous wave 3 after finally cracked the Tenkan after correcting in 3 waves from 1556 to Murrey Math +3/8. In sight of the intraday high of $1765.43 reached on May 18. We have overcome the negative divergence between the weekly chikou, Silver spread and the recent highs. Support Tenkan & Kijun. From there does the 5 play out? Watch Fibs and chikou.

    Gold W 10 16 2020
     

    Silver

    Silver  did a fractal of the sharp C up to breakdown level above the cloud fed by divergence from gold reverting. no  Silver reverseds with much more violent impulse than gold . Given that we have to repsect this is a iii  but  here is also a chance this is an A

     Silver W 10 16 2020

     Australian Dollar - AUDUSD

    Aussie dollar continues higher after it competed 5 waves in emotive  fashion. with vigor spitting the 100% panic muster. It has closed over the 50 Wma in 5 waves Resistance cloud is a long way off.  Support Tenkan and Kijun. From here we watch for 2 or X

    AUD W 10 16 2020

    New Zealand Dollar - NZDUSD

    The Kiwi mirrored the AUD and has closed over the panic breakdown (0%) correcting all of the panic muster wave. We are now above the Tenkan, which is pivotal. Resistance 50wma

    NZD W 10 16 2020

    Canadian Dollar - USDCAD

    The Loonie continues to correct in ABC after spitting the 261% Fib & Weekly 8/8 after 5 waves lower. We closed at the old 100% 61.8% confluence. Use Fib s for support and resisitance until Tenkan and Kijun catch up, 

    CAD W 10 16 2020

     Euro - EURUSD

    The Euro tested and held both the channel and cloud spits after so many false breaks to close at its best level since the BRexit spike. We are still in 3 waves so we need to see development for continuation. Resistance is Fibs as marked.  Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance and Kijun above. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility. 

    EUR W 10 16 2020


     EuroPound - EURGBP

    Back testing top of outer band and tenkan of Brexit. Johnson price reaction.after its classic ABC out of failure following the X wave. Tenkan will give us a clue if normalcy is returning to the channel trade.

    EURGBP W 10 16 2020

     Japanese Yen - USDJPY

    Japanese Yen still stuck in channel trade, a series of failures and sharp bounces after X led 3 wave panic. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun Tenkan kiss. Use your #USDJPY Murrey 6/8 0/8 grid for now. #EURJPY #AUDJPY will determine risk on/off

    JPY W 10 16 2020

     Mexican Peso USDMXN

    The Peso has been correcting in ABC since it collapsed and spat 261% right back to the 100% Fib  We have seen violent moves with outisde uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise. 

    MXN W 10 16 2020


      Turkish Lire USDTRY

    USDTRY after completing the large 5 waves corrected back to the channel acceleration point and finished testing Tenkan. Alternative is we are still in Wave 5 and this is another 1- Kijun support well above cloud  Impulse is needed to pull away from here.  Keep an eye on geopolitical risk factors.

     TRY W 10 16 2020

    Bitcoin

    Nothing new for Bitcoin, more of the same as it continues to falter after 61.8% spit. Well under the tenkan and kijun. Needs to test downtrend for higher correction. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud - we said be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.

    BTC W 10 16 2020

     

    The Week Ahead

    Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

     

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    Note these charts, opinons news and estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

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