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 US Politics


 Strange times But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.

TikTok, US Politics, Stimulus

The Week That Was - What Lies Ahead?

Stock Markets

  • In a volatile week again each of the major indices closed lower: S&P index fell -0.65%, NASDAQ index fell -0.56% and Dow industrial average fell -0.03%, the third losing week. It was the S&P 500′s longest losing streak since October. Tech again broadly lower, with Amazon and Facebook both down 5% for the week.
  • Year to date, the NASDAQ index continues to lead by a wide margin. The changes are showing S&P index, +2.74% NASDAQ index +20.29% Dow industrial average -3.09%
  • Over in Europe German DAX, -0.6% France's CAC, -0.8% UK's FTSE 100, -0.2% Spain's Ibex, unchanged Italy's FTSE MIB -1.2% for the week
  • IPO mania is back in full force with Snowflake an indication of, which more than doubled on debut.
  • Whether the US accepts Oracle's bid for TikTok has much ado with short term volatilty, but how lasting is that affect eitherway?
  • These weeks reversal are a natural reversion after the bull mania after the Dow ended the second quarter with a 17.8% gain, the biggest quarterly rally since the first quarter of 1987, when it ripped up 21.6%. The S&P 500 had its biggest one-quarter surge since the fourth quarter of 1998, soaring nearly 20%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 30.6% for the quarter, its best quarterly performance since 1999.
  • Stock valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios are near their highest level since the 2000 dot-com boom.


 US Stock Indices Performance

US Indices W 9 18 2020

Oil and Gas

  • Both Brent and WTI crude benchmarks spent the week rallying aftet the natural sell off afte hitting five-month highs three weeks ago we have seen prices in WTI crude futures bounce back with WTI crude futures to $41.09/bbl, bringing its weekly gain to 10%. for the week.
  • U.S. producers production boosted to near Laura levels.
  • Natural gas futures fell under $2 to $1.926 prmpt after being over $2.70 a few weeks ago on Winter speculative fervor. The uncertainty of Gulf storms remains but heavy long spec positions were/are all one way.
  • Storms continue to be on the radar. 
  • U.S. energy firms kept the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating near lows this week, Higher crude prices prompted some producers to start drilling again while others held off.

Bond Markets

  • U.S. Treasuries finished little changed in a tight-ranged session Friday. The 2-yr yield remained unchanged at 0.13%, and the 10-yr yie increased one basis point to 0.69%
  • The U.S. Dollar Index was flat at 92.95.
  • The Fed QE infinity programme is a yield curve control policy with long government bond yields coming down. Bond supply and continued central bank resistance to more negative policy rates limits the move. Central banks have been cutting rates and adding liquidity to avoid systematic failure. Where to from here? 

TNX W 9 18 2020

 

On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

Fed Financial Stability Report Risks May 2020

Job Losses

Covid19 brought with it a new reality of brutal times for workers. Over 14.5 million are collecting traditional jobless benefits, up from 1.7 million a year ago, with no end in sight. on Thursday, the Labor Department reported another 800,000 plus Americans applied for unemployment benefits. With the Covid shutdown we lost over 22 million jobs in March and April. As economies slowly reopened, the economy generated than 11 million jobs in May, June, July. and August. Still a huge shortfall in jobs, and will they come back?

November US Election

The death of Supreme Court judge Ginsburg opens up a new factor ahead of the election with the next appointment with Democrats pushing for after the election, Republicans likely before. The upcoming presidential election is a huge another risk with the intense split along Partisan lines of much of America. RealClearPolitics has President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joseph Biden by 8.1 points in the polls. A potential for a resurgence in Covid cases will see Trump not benefiting from an economic recovery, and as a result a better chance of Biden being elected. Biden is representative of uncertainty.

Stay alert to the political and geopolitical shifts with the world in flux. Government policies related to the environment, trade and tech sit high on the watch list.  Political and economic agendas that Influence policy-making is top of the list. For the US it is not just external threats, including increased political tensions between countries but also internal threats highlighted by the partisan impeachment devide. Politics influence all, directly or indirectly. 

The virus and psychological affect on domestic and trade relationships have impacted growth strategies with unexpected consequences .  In a  fully fledged stock mania, nothing matters until it does. That is the feral nature of greed.

  • Democrats and Republicans have been far apart in terms of the contents of any stimulus package. Key is the $600 supplemental weekly aid for the unemployed that expired on July 31, and Republicans want to cut it to $200 a week while Democrats want to keep current levels.
  • The two parties are also still far apart on the size of the package, after initially starting out with Democrats at $3 trillion and Republicans with $1 trillion and the latest $300 billion. 
  • President Trump signed an exective order to boost benefits by $300/week if individual states pay an extra $100/week.Additinally there was an order to defer payroll taxes The move also diminishes the urgency to make a deal and gives an indication of Republican strategy.
  • Trump’s polling deficit is larger than any incumbent since George H.W. Bush in 1992.
  • Biden has said he would seek to raise the U.S. corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, which could potentially eat into profits and weigh on stock prices
  • The first Presidential debate is not until September 29th, so the focus will fall on the several upcoming campaigning events.

Geopolitics

  • Japan's Prime MInister Abe suddenly resigned last week, it is not expected to change Japan's policy blend though in these times there is always a chance of risk elements in change..
  • Geopolitical tensions with China and India are on the rise as China increases military hardware near the China and India's Himalaya border, a potential negative shock not priced by markets.
  • China tightened its grip on Hong kong and threats with Taiwan continued.
  • Trade relations with China continue to worsen with two Australian reporters evacuated by the government last week from Beijing.
  • Russia is showing the affects of low energy prices, filtering into the socio economic dynamic
  • Brexit and the EU is bubbling along with increasing antagonism with UK PM Johnson wanting  new deal based on Northen Island security anf freedom.

Geopolitically the US-Sino rhetoric is heating up with TikTok, Hong Kong and "China Virus". We expect continued volatility with the engulfing uncertainty of the Coronavirus and in commodity markets, particularly in oil and other commodities, not to mention unrest in Iran, Libya and Iraq. 

Trade Wars

  • Despite all the US and Chinese rhetoric we are led to believe trade talks between U.S. and China are still expected to recommit to the Phase one deal. China has increased purchases of U.S. oil ahead of their trade deal review, according to Reuters.On a more upbeat note, the UK struck its first post-Brexit trade deal with Japan as it seeks to make a success of leaving the EU.
  • Trump did say Phase 2 will be difficult and he sees the virus more important then trade with China..
  • In addition to rising tensions with China, the United States Trade Representative said last month said that the USTR is considering a new round of tariffs on $3.1 billion in European exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K..

Fat Tail Virus Risk

Will virus cases level off in late spring and vanish so things can get back to some sort of normality by late summer? Or will there be a second wave of cases during the autumn/winter, forcing new lockdowns or leading to fear and voluntary social distancing (a W-recession scenario). For how long are you immune after having had the virus, a long time or a couple of months? Will there be a vaccine and when?

  • The US deals with a number of pharmaceutical giants have topped roughly $10.79 billion as part of Operation Warp Speed, a program led by several departments within the federal government to accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of vaccines and treatments to fight the coronavirus.
  • The operation aims to provide at least 300 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine by January 2021. The companies are Moderna Johnson & Johnson Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline Pfizer and BioNTech Novavax and AstraZeneca
  • Hopes and fears of reopening can outweigh mixed earnings results. No surprise after increased testing, weeks of protesting, people in large airconditioning indoors we have record daily U.S. cases. The U.S. reported 1000 deaths 4 days in a row with coronavirus cases,
  • There does appear to a concerted effort to put the blame on an economy reopening and miraclously the mass ongoing priotests have nothing to do with that. Take that for what it is worth. There is little mention of the younger age group in the new cases and much lower mortality rate. Fear is the feature. Use commonsense in your own protection, spreading and decision making.

Banks

BE AWARE: Stay rational and be prepared for many alternatives, either way. With crisis comes opportunity. From a market point of view this is not unprecedented, many other bubbles have popped with similar results. What is unprecedented is the pandemic, the mass media and social media fear mongering, the massive QE and printing and the strange era of entitlement and no responsibilty fed down from politicians to the youth of today for electoral purproses.

Put all that together and we see the result.  Again this isn't unprecendented just a different catalyst and fuel. Stay tuned. take a breath and think clearly. Oh and now we have the riots to throw on the kindling ....

  • Expect the Fed Stability Report warning on what happens if the pandemic worsens to be the go tto by Fed speakers (We are all watching to see if I spike aftet the Floyd protests and riots with no social distancing).
  • The backdrop is the Covid-19 crisis. Despite that the stockmarket is up over 40% from lows and stubborn bears and bulls alike are frustrated based on cognitive biases.
  • We continually focus on overcoming our biases and as the accompanying chart highlights stocks and the economy are NOT the same thing despite what we are told by our influencers and biased or selective recalls.

"Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch"

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead - Have a Trading Plan

In the new week we get to see the acceptance or otherwise of TikTok in America. After Snowflake and Unity debuts we see another busy week for the September IPO market, eight IPOs are scheduled to raise $2.0 billion, led by prescription drug marketplace GoodRx Holdings (GDRX). who plans to raise $900 million at an $11.2 billion market cap. Brazilian energy solutions provider Hygo Energy Transition (HYGO) plans to raise $450 million at a $2.4 billion market cap.

We also have a number of Fed speeches following last week's ECB and FOMC. The most important will be the appearances by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before three Congressional committees. At two of those, Tuesday and Thursday, Powell appears with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss coronavirus aid.

Improvements in some economic indicators, such as home sales, manufacturing activity and  in employment data have bolstered investor confidence and helped extend the rally in stocks. Support in markets comes from the Fed’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities.

 There is some important data in the week ahead,

  • Monday: 6:00 p.m. New York Fed President John Williams 12:00 p.m. Fed Governor Lael Brainard
  • Tuesday: 10:00 a.m. Existing home sales 10:00 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans 10:00 a.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin at House Financial Services on coronavirus aids, 4:30 p.m API Oil Inventories
  • Wednesday: 9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices 9:00 a.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:30 a.m. Fed Chairman Powell at House Select Subcommittee Committee on Coronavirus Crisis EIA Crude Oil Storage, 11:00 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans 12:00 p.m. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren 2:00 p.m. Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles
  • Thursday: 8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims 10:00 a.m. New home sales 10:00 a.m. Fed Chairman Powell, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin at Senate Banking Committee EIA Natural Gas Storage 1:00 p.m. Chicago Fed’s Evans 2:00 p.m. New York Fed’s Williams
  • Friday:  8:30 a.m. Durable goods 9:00 a.m. New York Fed’s Williams 12:00 p.m. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count CFTC Speculative net positions and 3:10 p.m. New York Fed’s Williams

For emerging markets the lower US dollar is helping the Fragile 5. Argentina and Turkey are still red letter risks with Covid however. Voters will also be going to the polls in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.

Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2020. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. 

Earnings 

Earnings for the week ahead are minimal as the season winds down. Given that is a known investors (and algos) will focus pn the conference calls and outlooks.  Everyone is expecting the worse. We will see critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals.

Last week we heard from FedEx, Adobe earnings; Camping World, KraftHeinz, Peloton analyst meetings, Herman Miller Moderna R& D Day and a Mosaic Analyst meeting among others.

  • Monday with Oracle - TikTok deal, yes or no?
  • Tuesday Earnings Include: Autozone, $NKE Nike $KBH KB Home $SFIX Stitch Fix $SCS Steelcase $ACB Aurora
  • Wednesday Earnings Include: General Mills
  • Thursday Earnings Include:Accenture, Jabil, Carmax, Darden Restaurants, Costco
  • Friday Earnings Include:

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Trade Imbalances IMF

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Stocks

 

Stock Markets

US Major Stock Indices

 Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

 SPX TOP 5 W 9 18 2020
 

S&P 500 Index via @KnovaWave

The SPX reacted off +2/8 #MurreyMath Daily after 5 waves & quickly came back to retest it. Double top i.e a competitive C or i ? Again it tested and held Tenkan Friday. Alternatives completed C Wave or a Wave 1. Support is Kijun and cloud and Chikou rebalance. Important to note the high was a retest of the initial breakdown .

The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages.  Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in.

 SPX D 9 18 2020

Weekly #SPX closed at MM +2/8 for 2nd week which is also breakdown retest. Major support is top of channel and Tenkan. Bulls looking for Tenkan to accelerate thru 200wma , bears failure. We look for 3 waves down and MM grid for wave clues. Keep an eye on the putcall ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as chickou rebalances

 SPX W 9 18 2020

Semiconductors ETF - SMH

SMH W 9 18 2020

 Apple $AAPL

( Leading underlying strength of US Indices)


 AAPL D 9 18 2020

 Amazon $AMZN

AMZN W 9 18 2020

 

Commodities and Forex

 

 

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here. he March breakdown, Support Tenkan and Kijun. In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here.

WTI D 9 18 2020

WTI after it's huge run continues to rebalance chikou indicative of extreme crowd behavior in a series of fractals. We have completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watch 3 develop to confirm.

These are special times, recall "After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications." Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price.  

WTI W 9 18 2020

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

US Natural Gas continues to work the lows that were either (5) or (iii) of (5). After a b or ii down we have bounced over tenkan and Kijun into cloud. Key is that 3 wave low. Above top of cloud. So far consistent failed breaks despite the strength of spitting the previous low and -2/8 with an island reversal to test the Kijun and downtrend line but fell back to Tenkan The big question is was that a completed move down there or a 3? Support at cloud.

 NG D 9 18 2020

Natty continues in large sideways pattern between weekly kijun and tenkan as they suppress. Above Cloud and 50wma. Support is downward channel and previous low. Talking fractals, remember the tenkan/kijun kiss of death brought it down from the $2 range. Much work here churning away.

.NG W 9 18 2020

  Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

BDI W 9 18 2020
 

Precious Metals

Gold

Gold (AUG) fell 0.11% to settle at $1,801.9 but gained 0.66% for the week kGold exudes strength after it back tested the previous wave 3 after finally cracked the Tenkan after correcting in 3 waves from 1556 to Murrey Math +3/8. In sight of the intraday high of $1765.43 reached on May 18. We have overcome the negative divergence between the weekly chikou, Silver spread and the recent highs. Support Tenkan & Kijun. From there does the 5 play out? Watch Fibs and chikou.


 Gold W 9 18 2020

Silver

Silver  did a fractal of the sharp C up to breakdown level above the cloud fed by divergence from gold reverting. no  Silver reverseds with much more violent impulse than gold . Given that we have to repsect this is a iii  but  here is also a chance this is an A

 Silver W 9 18 2020

 Australian Dollar - AUDUSD

Aussie dollar continues higher after it competed 5 waves in emotive  fashion. with vigor spitting the 100% panic muster. It has closed over the 50 Wma in 5 waves Resistance cloud is a long way off.  Support Tenkan and Kijun. From here we watch for 2 or X

AUD W 9 18 2020

New Zealand Dollar - NZDUSD

The Kiwi mirrored the AUD and has closed over the panic breakdown (0%) correcting all of the panic muster wave. We are now above the Tenkan, which is pivotal. Resistance 50wma

NZD W 9 18 2020

Canadian Dollar - USDCAD

The Loonie continues to correct in ABC after spitting the 261% Fib & Weekly 8/8 after 5 waves lower. We closed at the old 100% 61.8% confluence. Use Fib s for support and resisitance until Tenkan and Kijun catch up, 

CAD W 9 18 2020

 Euro - EURUSD

The Euro tested and held both the channel and cloud spits after so many false breaks to close at its best level since the BRexit spike. We are still in 3 waves so we need to see development for continuation. Resistance is Fibs as marked.  Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance and Kijun above. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility. 

EUR W 9 18 2020


 EuroPound - EURGBP

Back testing top of outer band and tenkan of Brexit. Johnson price reaction.after its classic ABC out of failure following the X wave. Tenkan will give us a clue if normalcy is returning to the channel trade.

EURGBP W 9 18 2020

 Japanese Yen - USDJPY

Japanese Yen still stuck in channel trade, a series of failures and sharp bounces after X led 3 wave panic. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun Tenkan kiss. Use your #USDJPY Murrey 6/8 0/8 grid for now. #EURJPY #AUDJPY will determine risk on/off

JPY W 9 18 2020

 Mexican Peso USDMXN

The Peso has been correcting in ABC since it collapsed and spat 261% right back to the 100% Fib  We have seen violent moves with outisde uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise. 

MXN W 9 18 2020


  Turkish Lire USDTRY

USDTRY after completing the large 5 waves corrected back to the channel acceleration point and finished testing Tenkan. Alternative is we are still in Wave 5 and this is another 1- Kijun support well above cloud  Impulse is needed to pull away from here.  Keep an eye on geopolitical risk factors.

 TRY W 9 18 2020

Bitcoin

Nothing new for Bitcoin, more of the same as it continues to falter after 61.8% spit. Well under the tenkan and kijun. Needs to test downtrend for higher correction. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud - we said be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.


BTC W 9 18 2020
 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

 

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Note these charts, opinons news and estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

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