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FEAR NOT Brave Investors


 Testament Family Guy


 Strange times But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.

Tech Testify, Fed, Stimulus

The Week That Was:

Markets

  • The second week of earnings saw a mixed result.  The week finsihed with Intel wiping out 2020 gains dropping 16.2% on Friday on the back of weak guidance for the third quarter. On the flip side Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose +16.5% as it stands to benefit.
  • Friday we saw the. Dow -182.44 at 26469.89, Nasdaq -98.24 at 10363.26, S&P -20.03 at 3215.63. The S&P 500 closed down 0.28% for the week, its first negative week in four. Nasdaq closed down 1.33% for the week, its second straight negative week. Dow closed down 0.76% for the week, its first negative week in 4 weeks.
  • Gold futures settled up 0.4% at $1,897.5, hitting a high Friday of $1,904.6  their highest price on record, $1,897.50 an ounce, topping the previous record settlement of $1,891.90 from August of 2011.
  • The U.S. dollar index fell more than 1% this week, on pace for its first five week losing streak since early 2018. Over the past five weeks, the U.S. currency has lost more than 3% of its value, allowing for dollar-priced commodities such as gold and silver to surge.
  • This week alone, gold is up nearly 5% and silver has surged more than 16% in that time.
  •  We are seeing some air out of the bull mania after the Dow ended the second quarter with a 17.8% gain, the biggest quarterly rally since the first quarter of 1987, when it ripped up 21.6%. The S&P 500 had its biggest one-quarter surge since the fourth quarter of 1998, soaring nearly 20%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 30.6% for the quarter, its best quarterly performance since 1999.
  • Stock valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios are near their highest level since the 2000 dot-com boom.

COVID-19

  • Dr. Anthony Fauci’s prediced a coronavirus vaccine would be “widely available” after the first few months of 2021 seems reasonable given the current timeline of the major candidates, and there was likely to be tens of millions of doses of vaccines ready by the start of the year, with wider access still a few months off. .
  • Hope fuels the reopening trade boost.
  • Florida has reported more confirmed coronavirus cases than New York state, which was once the epicenter of the pandemic.
  • Florida has confirmed a total of 414,511 cases since the pandemic began and is seeing record daily coronavirus deaths based on a seven-day moving average, along with Texas and California
  • Florida ranks second on the list of U.S. states with the greatest number of cases. California leads the U.S. with more than 440,000 cases. New York, once the epicenter, now ranks third.
  • Hopes and fears of reopening can outweigh mixed earnings results. No surprise after increased testing, weeks of protesting, people in large airconditioning indoors we have record daily U.S. cases. The U.S. reported 1000 deaths 4 days in a row with coronavirus cases,
  • There does appear to a concerted effort to put the blame on an economy reopening and miraclously the mass ongoing priotests have nothing to do with that. Take that for what it is worth. There is little mention of the younger age group in the new cases and much lower mortality rate. Fear is the feature. Use commonsense in your own protection, spreading and decision making.

Geopolitics

  • Geopolitical tensions with China and India were more somber, however more likely a result of the US/China tensions heating up.
  • China ordered the U.S. to close its consulate in Chengdu in response to the U.S. ordering China to close its consulate in Houston
  • China tightened its grip on Hong kong and threats with Taiwan continued.
  • Russia  is showing the affects of low energy prices, filtering into the socio economic dynamic
  • Brexit and the EU is bubbling along.
  • EU Agreed to a massive Covid stimulis.

US Politics

  • New round of polls suggest Democrats are well ahead of  Trump in the November Preseidential election. Trump’s polling deficit is larger than any incumbent since George H.W. Bush in 1992.
  • Biden has said he would seek to raise the U.S. corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, which could potentially eat into profits and weigh on stock prices

Economic highlights

  • On a  positive note, new home sales surged 13.8% m/m in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 776,000. That was the strongest pace of sales since July 2007 and higher than the pre-pandemic pace of 774,000 seen in January.

Trade Wars

  • US/Sino trade has the wobbles after China ordered the U.S. to close its consulate in Chengdu in response to the U.S. ordering China to close its consulate in Houston a
  • Trump did saw Phase 2 will be difficult and he sees the visrus more important then trade with China..
  • In addition to rising tensions with China, the United States Trade Representative said last month said that the USTR is considering a new round of tariffs on $3.1 billion in European exports from France, Germany, Spain and the U.K..

Banks

  • After last week's big week for banks with major earnings from the big money center banks, GS, MS, JPM, C, BAC, PNC and WFC. Wells Fargo got a boost from appointing a new CFO.
  • Banks are benefiting from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission intending to ease the Volcker Rule, which restricts banks from making large investments into venture capital. The Volcker Rule was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, and the new changes could potentially free up billions in bank capital. Bank stocks rose.
  • Banks are responding to the Federal Reserve in their annual stress test capped bank dividend payments and suspended share-buybacks for the third quarter.

Oil and Gas

  • Hanna is the first hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in its Saturday morning update. The storm landed at San Padre in east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas
  • .Crude oil continued to grind through a narrowing range against the $40-41 zone in what looks like an Ascending Triangle pattern developing the last few weeks. Monitor resistance for a breakout over $42 or a breakdown below its uptrend for a drop back below $35 towards its rising 50-day moving average.
  • More of the same for oil and gas prices as they consolidated after Oil and gasoline prices had their strongest quarter in 30 Years after negative prices and record lows on April 20 we saw the rally of all rallies in U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures surged 91% in the three months through to end of June, the best quarterly performance for U.S. crude since the third quarter of 1990 when it soared 131% during the first Gulf War.
  • Oil also got support from Baker Hughes reported U.S. oil and natural gas rigs operating have only just risen after falling to an all-time low for eighteen consecutive weeks.

Expect the Fed Stability Report warning on what happens if the pandemic worsens to be the go tto by Fed speakers (We are all watching to see if I spike aftet the Floyd protests and riots with no social distancing).

The backdrop is the Covid-19 crisis. Despite that the stockmarket is up over 40% from lows and stubborn bears and bulls alike are frustrated based on cognitive biases.

We continually focus on overcoming our biases and as the accompanying chart highlights stocks and the economy are NOT the same thing despite what we are told by our influencers and biased or selective recalls.

 

On the Risk Radar

Fed Warnings on Possible Medium To Long Term Risks

Fed Financial Stability Report Risks May 2020

In todays sound bite, partisan world achieving full self-awareness has many roadblocks. Constantly we are faced by new biases from everything from the economy, geopolitics and the pandemic. We are trading in a fluid, constantly evolving world. Understand and admit you have biases is step one, with that be aware of mental obstacles that can be triggered. Remember we can't fix what we don’t know. We aren't all doctors when it comes to cures, sources and pandemics for one. We know we are living in a brutally divided political world and the upcoming presidential election will trigger biases. For your investing (and mental health) maintaining an open mindset, diversify your influener and media sources so you can not get caught with bias inertia or blindness.

Job Losses

The reality is we are experiencing unprecedented levels of unemployment claims. The US Labor Department reported the jobless claims of over 47 million in just eleven weeks as the Coronavirus hits the economy. This sends the unemployment rate soaring to near 15%.

Yield Curve

The Fed QE infinity programme is a yield curve control policy with long government bond yields coming down. Bond supply and continued central bank resistance to more negative policy rates limits the move. Central banks have been cutting rates and adding liquidity to avoid systematic failure. Where to from here? 

November US Election

The upcoming presidential election is another risk with RealClearPolitics having President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joseph Biden by 8.1 points in the latest average of polls. A potential for a resurgence in Covid cases will see Trump not benefiting from an economic recovery, and as a result, that gives Biden a better chance of being elected. Biden is representative of uncertainty. Trump is likely to be pushed by Powell for more stimulus and Trump is likely to move on this with the threat of more economic damage.

Geopolitics

Geopolitically the US-Sino rhetoric is heating up and spilling over into Hong Kong and beyond. We expect continued volatility with the engulfing uncertainty of the Coronavirus and in commodity markets, particularly in oil and other commodities, not to mention unrest in Iran, Libya and Iraq. 

Fat Tail Virus Risk

Historically bear market rallies are fast and furious, and we are at the beginning of an economic recession (depression). In 2008 we had a 20% and 25% bounce in the S&P 500 during the total 57% top to bottom price fall. For the virus we have the great unknown with medical expertise not at a consensus how the virus destruction and recovery will play out.

Will virus cases level off in late spring and vanish so things can get back to some sort of normality by late summer? Or will there be a second wave of cases during the autumn/winter, forcing new lockdowns or leading to fear and voluntary social distancing (a W-recession scenario). For how long are you immune after having had the virus, a long time or a couple of months? Will there be a vaccine and when?

Our best advice is stay rational and be prepared for many alternatives, either way. With crisis comes opportunity. From a market point of view this is not unprecedented, many other bubbles have popped with similar results. What is unprecedented is the pandemic, the mass media and social media fear mongering, the massive QE and printing and the strange era of entitlement and no responsibilty fed down from politicians to the youth of today for electoral purproses. Put all that together and we see the result.  Again this isn't unprecendented just a different catalyst and fuel. Stay tuned. take a breath and think clearly. Oh and now we have the riots to throw on the kindling ....

 

Remember, nothing is as it seems.

Stay alert to the political and geopolitical shifts with the world in flux. Government policies related to the environment, trade and tech sit high on the watch list.  Political and economic agendas that Influence policy-making is top of the list. For the US it is not just external threats, including increased political tensions between countries but also internal threats highlighted by the partisan impeachment devide. 

Politics influence all, directly or indirectly.  The virus and psychological affect on domestic and trade relationships have the potential to impact growth strategies with unexpected consequences with this markets are also vulnerable.  In a  fully fledged stock mania, nothing matters until it does. That is the feral nature of greed. Was Coronavirus that dreaded black swan?

Behind it all is world wide low interest rates and QE pump priming by the world's major central banks,  the Federal Reserve, Swiss National Bank and ECB all preached more of the same. This has just been ramped up a notch.

Meanwhile tje Fed is committed to about 50 Billion a day in repo, funds  into the system to maintain liquidity, in its not QE4 repo program.The consumer had been keeping the economy robust. How will they act to alleviate the panic of the market drop, this is essential given the security of the repos they have out.

"Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch"

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead - Have a Trading Plan

In the new week we have many critical events. Nerves about technology stocks will continue with Apple and Amazon   earnings with their impact on Nasdaq and S&P 500. Senate Republicans will unveil their stimulus proposals, which could help determine the success of the economic recovery. The Federal Reserve meets in the week ahead, and it is expected to emphasize that it will continue to do all it can to help the economy. We get the first reading of second-quarter gross domestic product will be released Thursday, and it will show how hard the economy crashed after it was shut down to fight the coronavirus. A contraction of around 35% is expected.

Back on Technology on Wednesday. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos; Apple CEO Tim Cook; Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai and Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg have all been called for the noon hearing that will explore their companies’ market dominance. 

Overall with the Nasdaq not far off all time highs earnings will dominate thinking. The latest Covid worries worry any rebound in the U.S. economy.  Improvements in some economic indicators, such as home sales, manufacturing activity and another larger than expected bounce in employment data last month, have bolstered investor confidence and helped extend the rally in stocks. Support in markets comes from the Fed’s balance sheet which has ballooned to $7.2 trillion, and last Wednesday the central bank committed to monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities.

Again Weekly jobless claims will be important Thursday to see if there’s a drop in continuing clams, after June’s employment report  One component of Congress’ fiscal aid, a $600 per week supplement to unemployment insurance payments, is set to expire at the end of July.

Will the markets remain fixated on the COVID-19 news such as the infections count update, vacinations and the like?

 There is some important data in the week ahead,

  • Monday:
  • Durable goods
  • Tuesday: US FOMC meeting begins 9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices,  Consumer confidence, Housing vacancies, API Oil Inventories
  • Wednesday: US Mortgage Applications, Advanced economic indicators, Pending home sales, EIA Crude Oil Invemtories, The House Judiciary Committee and the Antitrust Subcommittee confirmed the hearing at noon ET.features Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Google CEO Sundar Pichai (was originally scheduled for Monday). FOMC statement,. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing
  • Thursday: US Weekly jobless claims, Real GDP Q2, EIA Natural Gas Storage
  • Friday:US Personal income, Employment cost index, Chicago PMI, Consumer sentiment, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count and CFTC Speculative net positions

For emerging markets the lower US dollar is helping the Fragile 5 . Argentina and Turkey are still red letter risks with Covid however. Voters will also be going to the polls in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.

Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask? 

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have trade wars.

Earnings 

Earnings for the S&P 500 companies are expected to decline by 40.3% for the second quarter, based on the results of companies that have already reported and estimates, according to Refinifiv’s I/B/E/S. Technology earnings are expected to have one of the smallest profit declines, at just 4.4% on average

Given thatis a known investors (and algos) will focus pn the conference calls and outlooks.  Everyone is expecting the worse. We will see critical updates on production in coronavirus impacted regions and if there is extended halting of operations weighing on multi-nationals.

Last week we heard from IBM, Halliburton, Zions Bancorp, Cal-Maine Foods, Steel Dynamics, Royal Phillips, Coca-Cola, Lockheed Martin, Texas Instruments, Snap, CIT Group, Novartis, Synchrony Financial, UBS, Philip Morris, Paccar, Prologis, United Airlines, Intuitive Surgical, Capital One, Interactive Brokers, Teradyne, iRobot, Canadian National Railway, Microsoft, Tesla, Discover Financial, CSX, Chipotle, Whirlpool, Kinder Morgan, Equifax, Northern Trust, Biogen, Nasdaq, Check Point Software, KeyCorp, Baker Hughes, Thermo Fisher, Canadian Pacific Railway, Netgear, Suncor, AT&T, Travelers, Intel, Twitter, Blackstone, ETRADE, Dow, Union Pacific, American Airlines, Citrix, Kimberly-Clark, Alaska Air, Freeport-McMoRan, Hershey, PulteGroup, Mattel, Verisign, AutoNation, AllianceBernstein, Fifth Third, AutoNation, Roche Holdings, Reliance Steel, Air Products, Daimler, Unilever, Nucor, Quest Diagnostics, Yamana Gold, Skyworks Solution, American Express, Verizon, Honeywell, Schlumberger, Equinor, Bloomin’ Brands

We start off on Monday with earnings from: Albertson’s, F5 Networks, Hasbro, NXP Semiconductor, LVMH, Avery Dennison, Legg Mason, Ryanair, SAP, TrueBlue, National Oilwell Varco and Beyond Meat

Tuesday Earnings Include: 3M Amgen, Mondelez, Chubb, Aflac, DR Horton, Raytheon, Invesco, MSCI, Rockwell Automation, Altria, Laboratory Corp, Martin Marietta, Roper Tech, Harley-Davidson, Canon, Nissan, Centene, Polaris, Sherwin-Williams, Corning, Boyd Gaming, Akamai, Lattice Semiconductor, Advanced Micro Devices, Visa, Juniper Networks McDonald's Pfizer Starbucks eBay Corning

Wednesday Earnings Include: General Electric, Boston Scientific, Anthem, Sanofi, General Dynamics GlaxoSmithkline, General Motors, Norfolk Southern, Qualcomm, Yum China, PayPal, Cheesecake Factory, Spotify, Owens Corning, Barclays, Deutsche Bank Boeing Shopify Spotify   Facebook Paramount ServiceNow

Thursday Earnings Include: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Procter and Gamble, Comcast, Ford, Shake Shack, Dunkin Brands, Cigna, Dupont, Eli Lily, Northrop Grumman, Textron, Valero, ConocoPhillips, Comcast, Kellogg, AstraZeneca, Kraft Heinz, Southern Co., Stryker, Generac, Stanley Black and Decker, Marsh and McLennan, Electronic Arts Gilead Ford Motor Stryker MasterCard Anheuser-Busch Northrop Grumman  AstraZeneca

Friday Earnings Include: Caterpillar, Merck, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Illinois Tool Works, Colgate-Palmolive, Lazard, Booz Allen Hamilton, LyondellBasell, Weyerhaeuser, Newell Brands

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Trade Imbalances IMF

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Stocks

 

Stock Markets

US Major Stock Indices


 US Stock Indices Performance

US Indices W 7 24 2020
 

Dow Jones

  • Dow closed down 0.68% Dow closed down 0.76% for the week, its first negative week in 4.

Nasdaq

  • Nasdaq closed down 0.94% Nasdaq closed down 1.33% for the week, its second straight negative week
  • Nasdaq is up 15.5% year to date

S&P 500.

  • S&P 500 closed down 0.62% S&P 500 closed down 0.28% for the week, its first negative week in four S&P
  • 500 is down 0.47% year to date Ten out of 11 sectors were negative Friday led by tech down 1.19%

 

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

Top 5 stocks W 7 24 2020
 
 

S&P 500 Index via @KnovaWave

Like clockwork $SPX has reacted off +2/8 Murrey Math Daily after 5 waves completed. We saw it test and hold The Tenkan Friday. Alternatives are completed C Wave or a Wave 1. Support is Kijun and cloud and Chikou rebalance. Important to note the high was a retest of the initial breakdown .

The break up was from above the 200dma. The balance from sharp reversal after the initial 3 wave down from the SPX wave 5 extension as Covid19 fed impulse accelerated under the tenkan. From there we had seen the ABC or 1-2-3 spinning around the 61.8% of the move. Support began at the October 2019 lows. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages. Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in. A manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree was a resolution for the ages.  Note the 100% extension from the emotive element and MM levels when the spit kicks in.

 SPX D 7 25 2020

Weekly #SPX closed under previous thrust and closed MM +1/8. Major support is top of channel and Tenkan. Bulls looking for 200wma to get through Tenkan, bears failure. We look for 3 waves down and MM grid for wave clues. Keep an eye on the putcall ratio with recognition to the sheer size of contracts AND keep in mind the stimulus distortion. The spit per channel fractal and Adams rule launched back over the cloud where we were encased AND we are back testing it. Watch if a spit or clear break support as chickou rebalances

SPX W 7 24 2020

Semiconductors ETF - SMH

SMH W 7 24 2020

 Apple $AAPL

( Leading underlying strength of US Indices)
 

AAPL W 7 24 2020

Amazon $AMZN

AMZN W 7 24 2020

 

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note

TNX W 7 24 2020
 

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here. he March breakdown, Support Tenkan and Kijun. In any break key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections from here.

WTI D 7 24 2020

WTI after it's huge run continues to rebalance chikou indicative of extreme crowd behavior in a series of fractals. We have completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watch 3 develop to confirm.

These are special times, recall "After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications." Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price Above we have 50wma and Murrey Math time and price.

WTI W 7 24 2020
 

 US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

US Natural Gas continues to work the lows that were either (5) or (iii) of (5). After a b or ii down we have bounced over tenkan and Kijun into cloud. Key is that 3 wave low. Above top of cloud. So far consistent failed breaks despite the strength of spitting the previous low and -2/8 with an island reversal to test the Kijun and downtrend line but fell back to Tenkan The big question is was that a completed move down there or a 3? Support at cloud.

 NG D 7 24 2020

Natty continues in large sideways pattern between weekly kijun and tenkan as they suppress. Above Cloud and 50wma. Support is downward channel and previous low. Talking fractals, remember the tenkan/kijun kiss of death brought it down from the $2 range. Much work here churning away.

.NG W 7 24 2020

  Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

BDI W 7 24 2020

 

Precious Metals

Gold

Gold (AUG) fell 0.11% to settle at $1,801.9 but gained 0.66% for the week kGold exudes strength after it back tested the previous wave 3 after finally cracked the Tenkan after correcting in 3 waves from 1556 to Murrey Math +3/8. In sight of the intraday high of $1765.43 reached on May 18. We have overcome the negative divergence between the weekly chikou, Silver spread and the recent highs. Support Tenkan & Kijun. From there does the 5 play out? Watch Fibs and chikou.
 Gold W 7 24 2020

Silver

Silver  did a fractal of the sharp C up to breakdown level above the cloud fed by divergence from gold reverting. no  Silver reverseds with much more violent impulse than gold . Given that we have to repsect this is a iii  but  here is also a chance this is an A

Silver W 7 24 2020
 

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar - AUDUSD

Aussie dollar continues higher after it competed 5 waves in emotive  fashion. with vigor spitting the 100% panic muster. It has closed over the 50 Wma in 5 waves Resistance cloud is a long way off.  Support Tenkan and Kijun. From here we watch for 2 or X

AUD W 7 24 2020

New Zealand Dollar - NZDUSD

The Kiwi mirrored the AUD and has closed over the panic breakdown (0%) correcting all of the panic muster wave. We are now above the Tenkan, which is pivotal. Resistance 50wma

NZD W 7 24 2020

Canadian Dollar - USDCAD

The Loonie continues to correct in ABC after spitting the 261% Fib & Weekly 8/8 after 5 waves lower. We closed at the old 100% 61.8% confluence. Use Fib s for support and resisitance until Tenkan and Kijun catch up, 

CAD W 7 24 2020

 Euro - EURUSD

The Euro tested and held both the channel and cloud spits after so many false breaks to close at its best level since the BRexit spike. We are still in 3 waves so we need to see development for continuation. Resistance is Fibs as marked.  Watch for impulse off Chikou rebalance and Kijun above. Again governed by EURGBP and Bund volatility. 

EUR W 7 24 2020


 EuroPound - EURGBP

Back testing top of outer band and tenkan of Brexit. Johnson price reaction.after its classic ABC out of failure following the X wave. Tenkan will give us a clue if normalcy is returning to the channel trade.

EURGBP W 7 24 2020

 Japanese Yen - USDJPY

Classic channel trade, has been a series of failures and sharp bounces after X led 3 wave panic. Any change will come from the weekly Kijun Tenkan kiss. Use your Murrey 6/8 0/8 grid for now. #EURJPY #AUDJPY will determine risk on/off

JPY W 7 24 2020

 Mexican Peso USDMXN

The Peso has been correcting in ABC since it collapsed and spat 261% right back to the 100% Fib  We have seen violent moves with outisde uncertainty from oil and COVID19. Use the Gann octave and the extension fibs to help measure the noise. 

MXN W 7 24 2020


  Turkish Lire USDTRY

USDTRY after completing the large 5 waves corrected back to the channel acceleration point and finished testing Tenkan. Alternative is we are still in Wave 5 and this is another 1- Kijun support well above cloud  Impulse is needed to pull away from here.  Keep an eye on geopolitical risk factors.

 TRY W 7 24 2020

Bitcoin

Nothing new for Bitcoin, more of the same as it continues to falter after 61.8% spit. Well under the tenkan and kijun. Needs to test downtrend for higher correction. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud - we said be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.


BTC W 7 24 2020
 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Sunday, July 26, 2020

  • 19:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
  • 19:50 JPY Capital Spending (YoY)
  • 20:00 AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
  • 21:30 CNY Chinese Industrial profit (YoY) (Jun)
  • 21:30 CNY Chinese Industrial profit YTD (Jun)

Monday, July 27, 2020

  • 00:30 JPY All Industries Activity Index (MoM)
  • 01:00 JPY BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
  • 01:00 JPY Leading Index
  • 04:00 EUR German Business Expectations (Jul)
  • 04:00 EUR German Current Assessment (Jul)
  • 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul)
  • 04:00 EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Jun)
  • 04:00 EUR Loans to Non Financial Corporations (Jun)
  • 04:00 EUR Private Sector Loans (YoY)
  • 04:30 HKD Trade Balance
  • 06:00 EUR France Jobseekers Total
  • 07:25 BRL BCB Focus Market Readout
  • 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun)
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Jul)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction
  • 13:00 USD 5-Year Note Auction
  • 19:50 JPY Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (YoY)
  • 20:00 AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

  • 03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q2)
  • 06:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook
  • 09:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (May)
  • 10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (Jul)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (Jul)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Services Index (Jul)
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Jul)
  • 10:30 USD Texas Services Sector Outlook (Jul)
  • 13:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 17:00 KRW Consumer Confidence (Jul)
  • 19:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY)
  • 21:30 AUD CPI (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 22:30 SGD Unemployment Rate Legend

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

  • 01:30 JPY BOJ Deputy Governor Amamiya Speaks
  • 02:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
  • 02:45 EUR French Consumer Confidence (Jul)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian PPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 04:00 CHF ZEW Expectations (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP BoE Consumer Credit (Jun)
  • 04:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Jun)
  • 04:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals (Jun)
  • 04:30 HKD GDP (QoQ)
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (Jun)
  • 08:30 USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jun)
  • 08:30 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM)
  • 09:30 USD Seevol Cushing Storage Report
  • 10:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 14:00 USD FOMC Statement
  • 14:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • 14:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
  • 17:00 KRW Manufacturing BSI Index (Aug)
  • 18:45 NZD Building Consents (MoM) (Jun)
  • 19:50 JPY Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun)
  • 21:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence (Jul)
  • 21:00 NZD NBNZ Own Activity (Jul)
  • 21:30 AUD Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 21:30 AUD Import Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 21:30 AUD Private House Approvals (Jun)
  • 22:00 SGD Bank Lending (Jun)

Thursday, July 30, 2020

  • 01:00 SGD Business Expectations (Q2)
  • 02:45 EUR French PPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 03:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicators (Jul)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish HICP (MoM)
  • 03:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (Jul)
  • 03:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate (Jul)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Jun)
  • 04:00 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 04:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
  • 04:30 HKD Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun)
  • 05:00 EUR Business and Consumer Survey (Jul)
  • 05:00 EUR Business Climate (Jul)
  • 05:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Jul)
  • 05:00 EUR Consumer Inflation Expectation (Jul)
  • 05:00 EUR Selling Price Expectations (Jul)
  • 05:00 EUR Services Sentiment (Jul)
  • 05:00 EUR Industrial Sentiment (Jul)
  • 05:00 EUR Unemployment Rate (Jun)
  • 06:30 EUR Spanish Business Confidence
  • 08:00 EUR German CPI (MoM)
  • 08:00 EUR German HICP (MoM)
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Core PCE Prices (Q2)
  • 08:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD PCE Prices (Q2)
  • 08:30 USD Real Consumer Spending (Q2)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 19:00 KRW Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)
  • 19:00 KRW Retail Sales (MoM)
  • 19:00 KRW Service Sector Output (MoM) (Jun)
  • 19:30 JPY Unemployment Rate (Jun)
  • 19:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)
  • 21:00 CNY Chinese Composite PMI (Jul)
  • 21:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
  • 21:00 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
  • 21:30 AUD Housing Credit (Jun)
  • 21:30 AUD PPI (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 21:30 AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Jun)

Friday, July 31, 2020

  • All Day Holiday Singapore - Eid al-Adha
  • 01:00 JPY Household Confidence (Jul)
  • 01:30 EUR French GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 01:48 JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (Jun)
  • 02:00 GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 02:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
  • 02:30 CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun)
  • 02:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM)
  • 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 04:00 EUR Spanish Current account (May)
  • 05:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 05:00 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jul)
  • 05:00 EUR GDP (QoQ)
  • 06:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales (MoM)
  • 06:30 HKD M3 Money Supply (Jun)
  • 08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
  • 08:30 USD Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 08:30 USD Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 08:30 USD Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 08:30 USD PCE price index (MoM) (Jun)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (Jun)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Jun)
  • 08:30 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM)
  • 08:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) (Jun)
  • 08:30 CAD GDP (MoM) (May)
  • 08:30 CAD IPPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 08:30 CAD RMPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 09:50 USD Chicago PMI (Jul)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)
  • 11:00 CAD Budget Balance (May)
  • 12:00 USD Dallas Fed PCE (Jun)
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
  • 13:00 USD OPEC Crude Oil Production
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
  • 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions

Saturday, July 11, 2020

Stock Buyback Watch

 

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Note these charts, opinons news and estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!

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