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Strange times But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.

Iran, Trade Deal and Banks

The Week That Was:

The second week of 2020 highlighted the manic phase of this stock market rally. Iran retaliated to the US assassination of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani by sending cruise missiles into US bases in Iraq. Iraq claims to have intentionally missed as a warning, however there is also the matter of a Ukranian jet being hit by a an Iranian missile killing 178 people. Iran claimed wasn't theirs than admitted to unintentionally doing it only after multiple intelligence reports. Most disturbing for the angry vitriol from Iran and it's supporters claiming a Western fake news conspiracy being blindly followed. This war is not over, just back to the proxies and propaganda phase. Yet the FOMO saw the markets reverse losses and oil collapse, Oil went from 62.80 to 65.60 to 58.65 in less than a day on fright and then everything is beautiful! Rationality left the buildinga long time ago.

Friday saw a slight reversal from in the major stock averages into the red after the U.S. Labor Department said the December jobs report miss forecasts. Still the week ended with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.66%, the S&P 500 up just shy of 1% and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.75% after the uncertainty of rising and easing military tension between the U.S. and Iran. The indexes did set new highs in the past week as Wall Street prepares for earnings season.  We start with the big banks, appropriate in a market that has embraced the mantra 'Greed is Good" more than any before it.

Not to be outdown Hosue Speaker Pelosi said she will send out impeachement articles to the senate this week. Sceptics suggest this is more with President Trump stunning success, for now at least, from having ordered the drone strike against Soleimani. He was considered the architect of Iran's strategic operations in the proxy war against the United States. However economic news contrinues to dissappoint globally. Sadly over in Australia the country is being ravaged by bush fires, the largest and most deadly ever seen.

A swallow doesn't make a summer and on that stay alert to the political and geopolitical shifts with the world in flux. This has shifted even further with the US strikes putting forex and oil volatilty on high alert. Government policies related to the environment, trade and tech sit high on the watch list.  Political and economic agendas that Influence policy-making is top of the list. For the US it is not just external threats, including increased political tensions between countries but also internal threats highlighted by the partisan impeachment devide. 

Politics influence all, directly or indirectly.  The trade war and trade relationships have the potential to impact growth strategies with unexpected consequences with this markets also be vulnerable. There is little doubt political uncertainty has become more widespread. With regard to the trade deal It is all dependant on so many factors, clearly the dealing isn't complete. In a  fully fledged stock mania, nothing matters until it does. That is the feral nature of greed.

Again we hit extended  all time highs in the S&P 500 in a larger economically depressed global world. Is the market ahead of it's self? Behind it all is world wide low interest rates and QE pump priming by the world's major central banks,  the Federal Reserve, Swiss National Bank and ECB all preached more of the same.

This week's V reversal , the put call ratio, Vix and talking heads underscore there is no fear out there. We remain just off new all time highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq.  What happens if music for pass the parcel stops playing? What if on China and the U.S. the market calls their bluff?. There is a reason why so many experienced fund managers are closing up shop.

The market has shrugged off Brexit, impeachment and geopolitical powder keg risk and Fed injecting 80 Billion a day  into the system to maintain liquidity, in its not QE4 repo program.The consumer has been keeping the economy robust.

Poltically we have the growing antagonistic and partisan split of the impeachment of the POTUS, in the UK and Europe we have the daily Brexit news cycle. Happy New Year!

Britain’s parliament reconvened on Jan 7 and debated the divorce deal Prime Minister Boris Johnson has agreed with Brussels. The bill went to parliament's upper house on Thursday and was ratified to allow Johnson to fulfil his pledge to "get Brexit done" by Jan. 31..

Given the history, markets seem overly optimistic about trade, some would say negligently. The market wants to believe the trade war is constructive, we have warned for over a year about the nonsense of the trade war nearing an end BUT economics not being the market. The market has become nothing more than a casino. Very simply you have two different cultures two different political systems and shaming doesn't do well in either. Read the recent reports with open eyes.

This is a market full of players that think its different this time, sure its different negative rates all around, trillions of worthless debt, unstable politics and Central Bankers putting their thumb in their mouths and seeing which way the wind blows. The fear of missing out and blind partisan politcs creates intertesting bed fellows. Be alert and put your ear plugs in and watch the whole spectrum its all related, geopolitical, debt markets, commodities, stocks, herds, greed and entitlement,

The spectre of Deutschbank overhangs Europe as does the new British PM, Boris Johnson. Their are other spectres out their we just don't know it, or want to.

"Negative yields on long-dated government securities are more reflective of distorted market conditions than of stronger sovereign credit profiles, Fitch Ratings says. Lower interest service costs support sovereign creditworthiness, but this must be weighed against the impact of the economic conditions leading to lower yields and historically high government debt levels in a number of countries.- Fitch"

We remind you to stay on your toes, ad nauseum we repeat; In this surreal world that market prices can only go up, with bizzare acceptance that we can't go down and you are a fool if you think otherwise. In saying that the old saying, the trend is your friend rings true.

Akio Morita mistakes

The Week Ahead

This week we could see more volatility with false and real news on war and terror and with the expected signing of phase one of the China US trade deal. Stocks are just off all time highs and geopolitical risk on high alert with President Trump under pressure at home and abroad.

We start off with the largest annual health-care investment conference hosted by J.P. Morgan over three days in San Francisco. Over 450 private and public companies are expected to attend. Last yearBristol-Myers announced acquiring Celgene. Expecting announcements, new drugs and phases. Biotecha are on high alert.

The U.S. politically remains combustible, led by Democrat impeachment, Turkey, Iran and Saudi moves, trade wars and repo rates. The market continues to focus on "phase one" of the  U.S. China trade talks.

Watch for the MBA mortgage report also it has had huge swings each week and is key to the economy and homebuilders. In the U.S. investors will be watching data that can help us gauge trade war fallout.

U.S. goods are more expensive due to a stronger dollar boosted by geopolitical woes and negative interest rates in Europe. The dollar index hit a 29-month high on Sept. 3. Investors are also transfixed by oil prices in reaction to the Saudi attack and recovery and military respsonses.

  • Monday 
    EU ZEW Survey and Economic Sentiment. Germany ZEW Survey - Current Situation and Economic Sentiment UK Balance of Trade, Index of Services and Industrial and Manufacturing Production
  • Tuesday
    US Consumer Price Index, API Crude Oil Inventories
  • Wednesday:
    EU Balance of Trade, Industrial Production. UK Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index and Retail Price Index. US MBA Mortgage Applications, Producer Price Index. EIA Crude Oil Inventories and signing of US-China Phase one Trade Deal
  • Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, EIA Natural Gas Storage
  • Friday EU Consumer Price Index and Current Account. Germany Wholesale Price Index, UK Retail Sales. US Building Permits, Capacity Utilisation, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, U. of Michigan Confidence (Prelim, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, CFTC Speculative net positions

For emerging markets the high US dollar means the Fragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks. Voters will also be going to the polls in Poland, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.

Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask? 

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.

Earnings The earnings largee banks, J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup earnings kicks off the new earnings season with much hype. Last week included Cal-Maine Foods, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Constellation Brands, Lennar, RPM International, MSC Industrial, Bed Bath & Beyond, KB Home, PriceSmart, Synnex and Infosys

We start off on Monday with: ,

Tuesday Earnings Include: Aphria (APHA),Delta Air Lines (DAL). J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C)

Wednesday Earnings Include: Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Thursday Earnings Include: Morgan Stanley (MS), PPG Industries (PPG), CSX Corporation (CSX)

Friday Earnings Include: Schlumberger (SCH)

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Trade Imbalances IMF

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

US Top 5 SPX Stocks W 1 3 2020

 Which Stocks Moved US ETF's Last Week

 US Top 5 ETF Stocks W 110 2020

US Stock Indices Performance

US Major Indices W 1 10 2020 

S&P 500

The SPX impulse down this week was reversed shaply to new highs in a manic wave 5 or 3 of some degree. We managed to close back ove the daily Tenkan after spitting the speedline, again all the hallmarks of a mania, +4/8 Daily MM over the chikou in 5 violent waves. The question is this a wave 5 and of what degree?  Best alternatives  (v) of wave V or wave iii higher, Speed and channel lines in tune with algo calibration curve. Note Chikou rebalance in order.
 SPX D 1 10 2020

After impulse off the weekly tenkan the weekly SPX tapped the top channel tor new all time highs, Below we have Kijun and tenkan. Below channel, watch if a spit or clear break support is 50 wma as chikou rebalances

SPX W 1 10 2020
 

Semiconductors ETF - SMH

SMH W 1 10 2020
 

Apple $AAPL

(Another ATH Leading underlying strength of US Indices)

AAPL W 1 10 2020
 

Amazon $AMZN

AMZN W 1 10 2020
 

CBOE VIX INDEX

Data via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

VIX caution: Not only did the net-short hit a record but so did the percentage of total open interest which reached 50%. History tells us that positions this elevated could leave the short side very vulnerable to a sudden change in direction $SPX $SVXY $XIV

Image

Speculators increased their VIX futures net-short by 17k lots to a RECORD 188k lots in the wk to Oct. 29. During the past month the #SPX rally has helped widen the contango thereby fueling short-selling strategies though futures and inverse ETFs $SVXY and $XIV.

 Image

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note


 

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

WTI exploded on Iran news and math and crowd behavior tell the story right to the +2/8 and collapsed back to the break up. From here question is was the higehr C complete? Resistane tenkan, Kijun and 50 dma zone over the cloud. Rebalancing Chikou and MM 8/8 gave us overbought caution but we had the manic thrust.  Watch the channel. The impulse meant a C or (Y) complete.

WTI D 1 10 2020

WTI rally shape is correctional after the sharp impulse higher through 50 WMA and the cloud top key supports remain Kijun and 50wma confluence (green) all failed aftet the violent spike up. Resisatnce channel and fib conflageration with MM 4.8
 WTI W 1 10 2020

 US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Natural Gas closed above tenkan in the 1-2 inside the babson lines and median channel but needs impulse for more. Recall it was rejected at the weekly tenkan last bounce, downside held October break up . Resistance from cloud down from impulse. On bounce rebalancing with chikou. Gap above.  Correcting the Murrey Math 1/8 and Wave iii or Alt C high. Support also near lows and channel from underneath 

NG D 1 10 2020
 

Natty nothing new  - failed to get over old trendline break from impulse down after Natural Gas rally rejected at the 61.8% and the March highs with the tenkan and Kijun now resistance around retest of 2.50-52 band after uptrend support at 2.34. Watch for Kijun/Tenkan cross after retesting the weekly channel break.

 NG W 1 10 2020

 

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)


BDI W 1 10 2020 

Precious Metals

Gold

After Gold finally cracked the Tenkan it continued to run after correcting in 3 waves from 1556 to Murrey Math +2/8. Support is Kijun while market decides.  From there a C or 3?  Watch Fibs and chikou. Watching for corrective 2 waves to tell us what this move is.

Gold W 110 2020
 

Silver

Silver sharp reversal higher continued off 50 wma, a  much more violent impulse than gold after correcting the 3 or C rallied off the 50% after it rallied in 3 waves to retest the September 2017 breakdown  After Tenkan and Kijun crossed - boom.  There is also a chance this is an X. We watch recent lows if this a 4 down or C complete

 Silver W 1 10 2020

 

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar - AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar reversed hard after breaching the cloud. tested the 50 wdma and hovering around the Kijun and tenkan which are now support. Fell after the move to MM +1/8 first target.

AUD W 1 10 2020

 New Zealand Dollar - NZDUSD

The Kiwi has retested the breakup after the bounce faltered much like the AUD and came back through the cloud.  We are watching as Tenkan and Kijun trying to cross back through which could bring the 'kiss of death'. The Chikou needs to rebalance.
 NZD D 1 10 2020

Canadian Dollar - USDCAD

The USDCAD couldn't to fall after was rejected hard at the 50wma and cloud, closing the week under old channel, tenkan and Kijun and break up level. Resistance top of cloud and 50 wma. The tenkan remains the pivot aspect.

CAD W 1 10 2020
Euro - EURUSD

Euro tested top of channel after held tenkan with Kijun closing through it - watch for impulse down if starts to break wedge,  Again governed by $EURGBP and #Bund volatility. Support pennant break. Unless this is a spit the potential of the measured move comes in around 1.0630 and lower. EUR remains a battle between EURJPY and EURCHF.

EUR W 1 10 2020

 EuroPound - EURGBP

EURGBP back testing tenkan after bounce, weekly cloud is well above and resistance is the May breakup reflecting Brexit politics. Resistance at kijun withr Tenkan support and Nov 2017 lows

EURGBP W 1 10 2020
 Japanese Yen - USDJPY

Classic failure at USDJPY after weeks over the weekly Kijun and closed at 50 wma and the cloud twist but couldnt get legs up. It was drawn by 38% and Murrey 6/8.  It broke out of Wedge as Kijun stayed flat. Yen buying on crosses, EURJPY and AUDJPY taking away the cloud twist that drew the dollar up.

JPY W 1 10 2020

 Mexican Peso USDMXN

Found support at last Gann octave as Mexican peso gave up some of recent gains after it held the cloud. Flat Kijun and Tenkan pulling after the USMC trade deal. Watch if a fractal spit on recent highs.
 MXN W 1 10 2020

Turkish Lire USDTRY

USDTRY impulse higher continued after found support at daily Kijun and Tenkan to get back above cloud  Impulse is needed to pull away from here. Support is the previous break up and tenkan and Kijun. Keep an eye on geopolitical risk factors.

TRY W 1 10 2020
 

Bitcoin

Nothing new for Bitcoin, more of the same as it continues to falter after 61.8% spit. Well under the tenkan and kijun. Needs to test downtrend for higher correction. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud - we said be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.

BTC W 1 10 2020
 

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Sun January 12, 2020

  • 19:00 AUD MI Inflation Gauge (MoM)

Monday, January 13, 2020

  • All Day Holiday Japan - Respect for the Aged Day
  • 02:00 EUR German WPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 02:00 CNY FDI 
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  • 04:30 GBP Business Investment (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 04:30 GBP Construction Output (MoM) (Nov)
  • 04:30 GBP GDP (MoM)
  • 04:30 GBP Index of Services
  • 04:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)
  • 04:30 GBP Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change
  • 04:30 GBP Trade Balance (Nov)
  • 09:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
  • 10:00 USD CB Employment Trends Index (Dec)
  • 10:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (Dec)
  • 16:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence (Q4)
  • 16:00 NZD NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilization (Q4)
  • 16:45 NZD Building Consents (MoM) (Nov)
  • 18:50 JPY Bank Lending (YoY) (Dec)
  • 18:50 JPY Current Account n.s.a. (Nov)
  • 22:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD)

Tuesday January 14, 2020

  • 00:00 JPY Economy Watchers Current Index (Dec)
  • 03:30 EUR ECB's Mersch Speaks
  • 04:00 CNY M2 Money Stock (YoY)
  • 04:00 CNY New Loans
  • 04:00 CNY Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY)
  • 04:00 CNY Chinese Total Social Financing
  • 06:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Real Earnings (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
  • 09:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 10:00 USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
  • 11:00 USD Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (Dec)
  • 16:00 KRW Export Price Index (YoY) (Dec)
  • 16:00 KRW Import Price Index (YoY) (Dec)
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 16:45 NZD FPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 18:00 KRW Unemployment Rate (Dec)
  • 19:30 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  • 21:00 KRW Trade Balance (Dec)

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

  • 01:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
  • 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 02:45 EUR French HICP (MoM) (Dec)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish HICP (MoM) (Dec)
  • 03:40 GBP BoE MPC Member Saunders Speaks
  • 04:00 EUR German GDP Annual
  • 04:30 GBP Core PPI Output (MoM) (Dec)
  • 04:30 GBP Core RPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 04:30 GBP CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 04:30 GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Dec)
  • 04:30 GBP PPI Output (MoM) (Dec)
  • 04:30 GBP RPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 05:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)
  • 05:00 EUR Trade Balance (Nov)
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW
  • ) 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index Tentative GBP Autumn Budget
  • 08:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jan)
  • 08:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 11:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
  • 13:00 EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
  • 14:00 USD Beige Book
  • 16:45 NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
  • 16:45 NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) \
  • 18:00 JPY Reuters Tankan Index (Jan)
  • 18:50 JPY Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Nov)
  • 18:50 JPY PPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 19:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance (Dec)
  • 19:30 AUD Home Loans (MoM)
  • 19:30 AUD Invest Housing Finance (MoM)
  • 20:30 CNY House Prices (YoY) (Dec)

Thursday, January 16 2020

  • 02:00 GBP Car Registration (MoM) 
  • 02:00 EUR Italian Car Registration (MoM) (Dec)
  • 02:00 EUR German Car Registration (MoM) (Dec)
  • 02:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 02:00 EUR German HICP (MoM) (Dec) 
  • 02:00 EUR French Car Registration (MoM) (Dec)
  • 04:30 GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey
  • 04:30 ZAR Gold Production (YoY) (Nov)
  • 04:30 ZAR Mining Production (Nov)
  • 07:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 
  • 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)
  • 08:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 CAD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  • 10:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Nov)
  • 10:00 USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
  • 10:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Jan)
  • 10:00 USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Nov)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • 16:00 USD US Foreign Buying, T-bonds (Nov)
  • 16:00 USD Overall Net Capital Flow (Nov)
  • 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Nov)
  • 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps (Nov)
  • 16:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Dec)
  • 19:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
  • 19:30 SGD Trade Balance
  • 20:00 KRW Interest Rate Decision (Jan)
  • 21:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Dec)
  • 21:00 CNY GDP (YoY) (Q4)
  • 21:00 CNY GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 21:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)
  • 21:00 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)
  • 21:00 CNY Chinese Unemployment Rate %
  • 21:00 CNY NBS Press Conference
  • 23:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)

Friday Jan 17, 2020

  • 02:00 EUR German WPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 02:30 CHF PPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 02:45 EUR French Government Budget Balance (Nov)
  • 05:00 EUR Construction Output (MoM) (Nov)
  • 05:00 EUR Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 05:00 EUR CPI (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Building Permits (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Housing Starts (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (Nov)
  • 08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Nov) 
  • 09:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
  • 09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate (Dec)
  • 09:15 USD Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec)
  • 10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Nov)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Inflation Expectations (Jan)
  • 12:45 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

Saturday, Jan 18, 2020

 

Stock Buyback Watch

Via Emad Mnati @EmadMnati and MarketBeat

Stock BuyBAcks 1

Stock BuyBAcks 2

 

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Note these charts, opinons news and estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!

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