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Chaos Clash

Strange Time But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.

Trade Wars, Volatilty and Chaos

The Week That Was:

Volatility was the theme of the week, we began with the US declaring China a currency manipulator and after the RBA left rates unchanged all seemed stable. Then New Zealand, India and others cut rates, pulling the rug out and sending the Swiss, Yen and the USD higher.  It was the end of the world and then in a short market we rallied over a 1180 handles in the S&P. Oil collapsed but by Friday and bounced over $4 on an old report China was buying US crude.

We still have confusion with the whole mess that is Brexit and now Italian elections are back in the picture. Negative rates, as foolish as history will remember them are the theme of the moment.

Still the market wants to believe the trade war is constructive, we have warned for over a year about the nonsense of the trade war nearing an end. Very simply you have two different cultures two different political systems and shaming doesn't do well in either.

This is a market full of players that think its different his time, sure its different negative rates all around, trillions of worthless debt, unstable politics and Central Bankers putting their thumb in  their mouths and seeing which way the wind blows, The fear of  missing out and blind partisan politcs creates intertesting bed fellows. Be alert and put your ear plugs in and watch the whole spectrum its all related, geopolitical, debt markets, commodities, stocks, herds, greed and entitlement,

The spectre of Deutschbank overhangs Europe as does the new British PM, Boris Johnson. Their are other spectres out their we just don;t know it, or want to.

The market has put on their bets for the next Fed cut and it's 100% for 25 basis points. For volatility, know what you are in. The indices are gamed by a few high delta stocks leading the way with massive leverage and a game of chicken on daily..

We remind you to stay on your toes, ad nauseum we repeat; In this surreal world that market prices can only go up, with bizzare acceptance that we can't go down and you are a fool if you think otherwise. We have had mixed economic data, no concrete decision on the China and EU trade wars and no decision on Brexit. Here we are (see what ya wanna see).

The Week Ahead

Another big week for potential volatility, led by trade wars and rate theories. We have U.S. CPI, Retail sales, Productivity and costs, Philadelphia Fed Survey, Industrial production. NAHB survey, TIC data, Housing starts and Consumer sentiment.

To repeat AGAIN ...With the trade war, most analysts still say a US-China trade deal will remain out of reach regardless for some time. On repeat "Again the issue is the disconnect between the story telling about the China deal and inconclusion between the Tories and Labor in the UK. What could go wrong?"

It is now over five months since the latest trade deal between the United States with China deadline of March 1. The White house said it needs more time, then turned around and slapped more tariffs on and said hey we are still talking.  Are we the only one that sees the constant reset to keep markets elevated? If you have half a non partisan brain it should be all pretty clear the great game going on.

For emerging markets the still high US dollar means the Fragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.

Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask? 

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.

Earnings last week included Shake Shack, Diamond Offshore, Continental Resources, Solar Capital, HSBC, Cabot, WPX Energy Disney, Blue Apron Pioneer Natural Resources, Plains All American, Chesapeake Energy Roku, Zillow, CenterPoint, NRG Energy News Corp Activision Blizzard Dropbox,  Adidas, Marathon Oil Tribune Media, Continental Resources Parker Drilling Co WPX Energy Inc Parsley Diamondback Energy Devon Energy Cheniere Energy Berry Petroleum PDC Energy Hi-Crush Novo Nordisk Uber and Take Two Interactive

We start off on Monday with:Barrick Gold, Sysco, Tencent Music, Bloom Energy

Tuesday Earnings Include:Advance Auto Parts, Adaptive Biotech, Change Healthcare, RealReal, Tilray, Elanco Animal Health, Best Inc, JD.com

Wednesday Earnings Include:Cisco, Macy’s, Embraer, Canopy Growth, Tencent, Agilent, Luckin Coffee, Performance Food, NetApp

Thursday Earnings include Walmart, Nvidia, Applied Materials, Alibaba, Tapestry, J.C. Penney, Canadian Solar, ZTO Express

Friday Earnings include:Deere

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Trade Imbalances IMF

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

US Top 5 Stocks D 8 9 19

Which Stocks Moved US ETF's Last Week

US Top 5 ETF Stocks D 8 9 19

US Stock Indices Performance

There was a reason why we kept harping on about this risk: The performance in shares of small-cap companies which are domestically focused than the large-cap firms is a concern for the optimism in the markets, belies the ATH optimism. The small-cap Russell 2000 index had gained 16.6% for the year, which has underperformed the benchmark S&P 500 index which had risen over 19.5%. Whereas the DJIA, NDX and SPX have marked new records highs, it remained 9.7% below its August 2018 high.

US Performance W 8 9 19

S&P 500

The $SPX continues to trade off our daily speed lines like clock work. Note the acceleration when Tenkan, Kijun crossed with the 50 dma.  Best alternatives are a (ii)  of wave V higher, a A of a larger 2 or this is i of something more powerful down. Speed and channel lines in tune with algo calibration curve.

MW SPX D 8 9 19

On the weekly SPX closed above the triple top just on the upper band last week giving us the heads up confirmed with ATH over+2/8, our question was answered when it spat. Tenkan and 50 wma with a sharply climbing Kijun will be support with the cloud much lowerit will need to hold.

MW SPX W 8 9 19

Apple $AAPL

MW AAPL W 8 9 19

Amazon $AMZN

MW AMZN W 8 9 19

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note

MW TNX W 8 9 19

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

WTI sold off the tenkan hard but bounced with impulse off a daily triple bottom, still finished inside the inner daily downtrend channel well under the cloud base under tenkan,after much work with Kijun and 50 dma adding pressure. Watch for spits now with fear in the pricing.

MW WTI D 8 9 19

WTI again finished the week under the weekly Kijun, 50wma (green) and Tenkan,  After strong impulse higher it closed at the cloud base back to the Chikou. Expect more work and volatility. Watch Murrey confluence with the cloud acting as support, failure.

MW WTI W 8 9 19

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Natural Gas got back into our constuctive X  but underTenkan (orange) flattening, as is Kijun  Despite record low futures longs the fails are swift. The1-2 set up retested the flag has potential but flailing.

MW NG D 8 9 19

Natural Gas weekly finished with a green spug after lower lows - much work to do with tenkan and channel above., its all about the weekly channel and the tenkan. 

MW NG W 8 9 19

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

MW BDI W 8 9 19

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar - AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar continued to be sold off hard of the Kijun and daily cloud after the bounce off the bottom weekly channel and Murrey Math 0/8 gave up right down to spit the weekly channel. Much repair work to be done into the cloud to get a meaningful bounce in. 

 MW AUSUSD W 8 9 19

New Zealand Dollar - NZDUSD

The Kiwi rebound reversal continued from the 6/8 & Chikou confluence over the downward channel after breaking the top of the cloud only to break through cloud, break up line and 50 dma. The move accelerated after going back through the Tanken and Kijun.and tested out triple bottom zone.

MW NZDUSD D 8 9 19

Canadian Dollar - USDCAD

Loonie continued to be sold off with the bounce in USD from the cloud drawn by the flat Tenkan above. After spiking it closed back at the tenkan - now seen as the pivot aspect. Support is cloud base,  

MW USDCAD W 8 9 19

Euro - EURUSD

Euro Weekly failed with the bull flag scenario and remains in the long weekly channel pennant back testing lows after rejected by Kijun and Tenkan. EUR is a battle between EURJPY and EURCHF selling and EURGBP buying.

MW EURUSD W 8 9 19

EuroPound - EURGBP

Finally the break as GBPUSD collapsed .. EURGBP shot over 50 wma & top of channel with Johnson as new PM seeing GBP weakened. Brexit channel closed over the Kijun & cloud and then broke through.

MW EURGBP W 8 9 19

Japanese Yen - USDJPY

The dollar yen reversed hard Thursday after the cloud and Kijun stopped the rally. Yen buying continued on the crosses, EURJPY and AUDJPY taking away the cloud twist that drew the dollar up.

MW USDJPY W 8 9 19

Mexican Peso USDMXN

Mexican peso weakened this week with much of the emerging markets. Watch Kijun as the USD is over the cloud and we are over tenkan. USDMXN has it's own border crisis.

MW USDMXN D 8 9 19

Turkish Lire USDTRY

The USD Turkish Lire cant seem to get away from the trend line with the tenkan overhead. The downtrend formed since May is not in line with the risk profile outside of rates. 

MW USDTRY D 8 9 19

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues digesting rally thrown back at the 61.8% of the major move at pace once to the 38% and tekan confluence to bounce to the 50%. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud and tenkan, be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.

MW USDTRY D 8 9 19

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Sun Aug 11, 2019

  • All Day Holiday Singapore - Hari Raya Haji
  • 18:45 NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

Monday, Aug 12, 2019

  • All Day Holiday Singapore - Hari Raya Haji
  • All Day Holiday Japan - Mountain Day
  • All Day Holiday India - Eid al-Adha
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 12:00 USD WASDE Report
  • 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (Jul)
  • 18:00 AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
  • 18:45 NZD FPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 19:50 JPY PPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 20:00 SGD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 21:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jul)
  • 21:30 AUD NAB Business Survey (Jul)
  • 23:00 KRW M2 Money supply (Jun)

Tuesday Aug 13, 2019

  • 00:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)
  • 02:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 02:00 EUR German HICP (MoM) (Jul)
  • 02:00 EUR German WPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 02:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish HICP (MoM) (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP Average Earnings ex Bonus (Jun)
  • 04:30 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun)
  • 04:30 GBP Claimant Count Change (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Jun)
  • 04:30 GBP Unemployment Rate (Jun)
  • 05:00 EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (Aug)
  • 05:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug)
  • 05:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug)
  • 05:45 GBP 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction
  • 05:45 EUR Italian 3-Year BTP Auction
  • 05:45 EUR Italian 30-Year BTP Auction
  • 05:45 EUR Italian 7-Year BTP Auction
  • 06:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (Jul)
  • 07:00 USD OPEC Monthly Report
  • 08:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 08:30 USD Real Earnings (MoM) (Jul)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
  • 11:00 USD Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 17:00 KRW Export Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
  • 17:00 KRW Import Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
  • 19:00 KRW Unemployment Rate (Jul)
  • 19:50 JPY Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Jun)
  • 20:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Aug)
  • 21:30 AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 22:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul)
  • 22:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)
  • 22:00 CNY Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Jul)
  • 22:00 CNY Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Jul)
  • 22:00 CNY Chinese Unemployment Rate

Wednesday, Aug 14, 2019

  • 01:30 EUR French Unemployment Rate (Q2)
  • 02:00 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • Tentative EUR German WPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 02:45 EUR French HICP (MoM) (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP Core PPI Output (MoM) (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP Core RPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP CPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP House Price Index (YoY)
  • 04:30 GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP PPI Output (MoM) (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP RPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 04:40 EUR Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction
  • 04:40 EUR Spanish 3-Year Bonos Auction
  • 04:40 EUR Spanish 5-Year Bonos Auction
  • 05:00 CNY M2 Money Stock (YoY)
  • 05:00 CNY New Loans
  • 05:00 CNY Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY)
  • 05:00 CNY Chinese Total Social Financing
  • 05:00 EUR Employment Change (QoQ)
  • 05:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 05:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)
  • Tentative EUR German 10-Year Bund Auction
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Jul)
  • 08:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Jul)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 11:00 USD Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Aug)
  • 11:30 USD 52-Week Bill Auction
  • 19:00 AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
  • 21:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations
  • 21:30 AUD Employment Change (Jul)
  • 21:30 AUD Full Employment Change (Jul)
  • 21:30 AUD Participation Rate (Jul)
  • 21:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (Jul)
  • 21:30 CNY House Prices (YoY) (Jul)

Thursday Aug 15, 2019

  • All Day Holiday South Korea - Liberation Day
  • All Day Holiday Italy - Assumption Day
  • All Day Holiday India - Independence Day
  • 00:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Jun)
  • 00:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)
  • 02:30 CHF PPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
  • 06:00 GBP Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Aug)
  • 06:00 EUR Italy Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Aug)
  • 06:00 EUR Germany Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Aug)
  • 06:00 EUR France Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Aug)
  • 06:00 EUR Reserve Assets Total (Jul)
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 08:30 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug)
  • 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)
  • 08:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
  • 08:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 08:30 CAD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  • 09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate (Jul)
  • 09:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)
  • 10:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Jun)
  • 10:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Aug)
  • 10:00 USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jun)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 16:00 USD US Foreign Buying, T-bonds (Jun)
  • 16:00 USD Overall Net Capital Flow (Jun)
  • 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Jun)
  • 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps (Jun)
  • 18:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Jul)
  • 19:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying 20:30 SGD Trade Balance
  • 22:00 JPY Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Aug)
  • 22:00 CNY China Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Aug)
  • 23:00 NZD RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Jul)

Friday Aug 16, 2019

  • 03:00 CNY FDI
  • 04:30 HKD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 05:00 EUR Trade Balance (Jun)
  • 08:30 USD Building Permits (Jul)
  • 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Jul)
  • 08:30 USD Housing Starts (Jul)
  • 08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (Jun)
  • 08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Jun)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug)
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil & Gas Rig Count
  • 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions

Stock Buyback Watch

Via Emad Mnati @EmadMnati and MarketBeat

Stock BuyBAcks 1

Stock BuyBAcks 2

 

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Note these charts, opinons news and estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!

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