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FEAR NOT Brave Investors

Trump and XI

Strange Time But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.

Trade Wars, Stocks Shaky and Negative Rates

The Week That Was:

Following a week of entitlement from stock investors and POTUS where stock markets showed no fear buying new highs we finished with at best one of confusion. We have confusion with the whole mess that is Brexit with Europe feeling the heat and the British pound at long unseen lows. Negative rates, as foolish as history will remember them are popping up daily.

Then it all broke loose, The Federal Reserve ONLY cut 25 bp, Chair Powell than dawdled through a confusing dove tone which brought in selling. POTUS then unleashed on Powell for not cutting more, same old story. Next day markets draw a breath and then the turmoil unleashes. Trump announces the US will add 10% tariffs on another $300 billion with what appears to be a thought out structured decison. Ironically the June trade deficit released the next day showed the gap with China at a 5 month high.

We have warned for over a year about the nonsense of the trade war nearing an end. Very simply you have two different cultures two different political systems and shaming doesn't do well in either.

This is a market full of players that think its different his time, sure its different negative rates all around, trillions of worthless debt, unstable politics and Central Bankers putting their thumb in  their mouths and seeing which way the wind blows, The fear of  missing out and blind partisan politcs creates intertesting bed fellows. Be alert and put your ear plugs in and watch the whole spectrum its all related, geopolitical, debt markets, commodities, stocks, herds, greed and entitlement,

The spectre of Deutschbank overhangs Europe as does the new British PM, Boris Johnson. Their are other spectres out their we just don;t know it, or want to.

The market has put on their bets for the next Fed cut and it's 100% for 25 basis points.  For volatility, know what you are in. The indices are gamed by a few high delta stocks leading the way with massive leverage and a game of chicken on daily..

We remind you to stay on your toes, ad nauseum we repeat; In this surreal world that market prices can only go up, with bizzare acceptance that we can't go down and you are a fool if you think otherwise. We have had mixed economic data, no concrete decision on the China and EU trade wars and no decision on Brexit. Here we are (see what ya wanna see).

The Week Ahead

Another big week for potential volatility, led by trade wars and rate theories. We have the service PMIs out globally, have services made up for the manufacturing drain? Over in the US we also have JOLTS, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks, Consumer credit, Jobless claims and PPI.

To repeat AGAIN ...With the trade war, most analysts still say a US-China trade deal will remain out of reach regardless for some time. On repeat "Again the issue is the disconnect between the story telling about the China deal and inconclusion between the Tories and Labor in the UK. What could go wrong?"

It is now over five months since the latest trade deal between the United States with China deadline of March 1. The White house said it needs more time, then turned around and slapped more tariffs on and said hey we are still talking.  Are we the only one that sees the constant reset to keep markets elevated? If you have half a non partisan brain it should be all pretty clear the great game going on.

For emerging markets the still high US dollar means the Fragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.

Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask? 

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.

Earnings last week included Anadarko Beyond Meat Transocean Encana Proctor & Gamble BP PLC Apple  Under Armour D.R. Horton ConocoPhillips Electronic Arts CME Group General Electric Hess Corp Concho Resources Apache Occidental Petroleum General Motors Intercontinental Exchange Royal Dutch Shell Marathon Petroleum EOG Resources Sempra Energy Whiting LyondellBasell Seagate Exxon Mobil Chevron and Noble Energy

We start off on Monday with: Marriott, Shake Shack, Diamond Offshore, Avis Budget, Continental Resources, Solar Capital, Tenet Healthcare, Caesars Entertainment, Loews, CNA Financial, HSBC, Tyson Foods, Cabot, WPX Energy

Tuesday Earnings Include: Disney, Bausch Health, Discovery, Regeneron, Match Group, Wynn Resorts, Hertz Global, Weight Watchers, Zoetis, Blue Apron, Avantor, Host Hotels, Pioneer Natural Resources, Plains All American, American Financial Group, Planet Fitness, Papa John’s Icahn Enterprises, Chesapeake Energy, Pitney Bowes, Tenneco

Wednesday Earnings Include: CVS Health, AIG, IAC/InterActive, Fox Corp, TripAdvisor, Roku, Zillow, Softbank, Teva Pharma, Capri Holdings, Cedar Fair, Wendy’s, NY Times, Hostess Brands, Switch, Eventbrite, Liberty Global, CenterPoint, NRG Energy, Royal Ahold

Thursday Earnings include News Corp, Liberty Media, Viacom, Axa Equitable, TrueCar, Axon, Wheaton Precious Metals, Activision Blizzard, CBS, Dropbox, Yelp, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Adidas, Marathon Oil Norwegian Cruise Line, Anglogold, AMC Entertainment, Lions Gate, Murphy Oil, Fiverr International

Friday Earnings include:Tribune Media, WPP Group, Novo Nordisk, Diplomat Pharmacy

Big Week For Energy Earnings With OIl and Gas having sold off :

Monday Continental Resources Diamond Offshore HighPoint Resources Corp Kosmos Energy Parker Drilling Co WPX Energy Inc

Tuesday NCS Multistage Hi-Crush Chesapeake Energy Black Stone Minerals Gulf Island Fabrication Unit Corporation Frank’s International NV Centennial Resource Goodrich Petroleum Corp Ensign Energy Services Plains All American Pipeline

Wednesday QEP Resources Inc Callon Petroleum Gibson Energy Parsley Energy Diamondback Energy Montage Resources Corp – Keyera Corp Geopark Ltd Pioneer Natural Resources Southwestern Energy Denbury Resources Devon Energy Powell Industries Oasis Petroleum Comstock Resources Earthstone Energy

Thursday Covia Holdings Marathon Oil Energy Transfer STEP Energy Murphy Oil Bonanza Creek Energy TETRA Technologies Bellatrix Exploration Gran Tierra Energy Talos Energy Targa Resources Cheniere Energy Berry Petroleum PDC Energy Inc Abraxas Petroleum Panhandle Oil and Gas Enerflex Geospace Technologies Pason Systems Total Energy Rosehill Resources Inter Pipeline Jagged Peak Energy Key Energy Ultra Petroleum Corp

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Trade Imbalances IMF

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

US Top 5 Stocks D 8 2 19

Which Stocks Moved US ETF's Last Week

US Top 5 ETF Stocks D 8 2 19

US Stock Indices Performance

There was a reason why we kept harping on about this risk: The performance in shares of small-cap companies which are domestically focused than the large-cap firms is a concern for the optimism in the markets, belies the ATH optimism. The small-cap Russell 2000 index had gained 16.6% for the year, which has underperformed the benchmark S&P 500 index which had risen over 19.5%. Whereas the DJIA, NDX and SPX have marked new records highs, it remained 9.7% below its August 2018 high.

US Performance W 8 2 19

S&P 500

The $SPX continues to trade off our daily speed lines like clock work. Note the acceleration when Tenkan, Kijun crossed with the 50 dma.  Best alternatives are a (ii)  of wave V higher, a A of a larger 2 or this is i of something more powerful down. Speed and channel lines in tune with algo calibration curve.

MW SPX D 8 2 19

On the weekly SPX closed above the triple top just on the upper band last week giving us the heads up confirmed with ATH over+2/8, our question was answered when it spat. Tenkan and 50 wma with a sharply climbing Kijun will be support with the cloud much lowerit will need to hold.

MW SPX W 8 2 19

Apple $AAPL

MW AAPL W 8 2 19

Amazon $AMZN

MW AMZN W 8 2 19

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note

MW TNX W 8 2 19

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

WTI finished inside the inner daily downtrend channel at the cloud base under tenkan,after much work with Kijun and 50 dma adding pressure. The heads up again was it back over Kijun even with 'Iran tests' and risk off mania. A C wave or a iii of I are the alternatives. Watch for spits now with fear in the pricing.

MW WTI D 8 2 19

WTI again finished the week under the weekly Kijun and 50wma (green) but ALSO under the Tenkan, We hang above the cloud base and chikou. Watch Murrey confluence with the cloud acting as support, failure.

MW WTI W 8 2 19

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

A repeat of last week, Natural Gas reversed its break daily back throughTenkan (orange) after flattening Kijun was too much for a reversal. Despite record low futures longs the fails are swift. The1-2 set up retested the flag has potential but flailing.

MW NG D 8 2 19

Natural Gas no change, its all about he weekly channel and the tenkan. Another week of maintaining the downward channel being thwarted by the tenkan and the 2017-18 lows. Use the channel as your guide with Tenkan upside resistance at week's end. .

MW NG W 8 2 19

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

MW BDI W 8 2 19

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar - AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar continued to be sold off hard of the Kijun and daily cloud after the bounce off the bottom weekly channel and Murrey Math 0/8 gave up right down to spit the weekly channel. Much repair work to be done into the cloud to get a meaningful bounce in. 

MW AUSUSD W 8 2 19

New Zealand Dollar - NZDUSD

The Kiwi rebound reversal continued from the 6/8 & Chikou confluence over the downward channel after breaking the top of the cloud only to break through cloud, break up line and 50 dma. The move accelerated after going back through the Tanken and Kijun.and tested out triple bottom zone.

MW NZDUSD D 8 2 19

Canadian Dollar - USDCAD

Loonie sold off with the bounce in USD from the cloud drawn by the flat Tenkan above. Support is cloud base, Note downtrend line and cohesian with oil. Keep an eye on Tenkan and WTI control aspects.

MW USDCAD W 8 2 19

Euro - EURUSD

Euro Weekly failed with the bull flag scenario and remains in the long weekly channel pennant back testing lows after rejected by Kijun and Tenkan. EUR is a battle between EURJPY and EURCHF selling and EURGBP buying.

MW EURUSD W 8 2 19

EuroPound - EURGBP

Finally the break as GBPUSD collapsed .. EURGBP shot over 50 wma & top of channel with Johnson as new PM seeing GBP weakened. Brexit channel closed over the Kijun & cloud and then broke through.

MW EURGBP W 8 2 19

Japanese Yen - USDJPY

The dollar yen reversed hard Thursday after the cloud and Kijun stopped the rally. Yen buying continued on the crosses, EURJPY and AUDJPY taking away the cloud twist that drew the dollar up.

MW USDJPY W 8 2 19

Mexican Peso USDMXN

Mexican peso weakened this week with much of the emerging markets. Watch Kijun as the USD is over the cloud and we are over tenkan. USDMXN has it's own border crisis.

MW USDMXN D 8 2 19

Turkish Lire USDTRY

The USD Turkish Lire cant seem to get away from the trend line with the tenkan overhead. The downtrend formed since May is not in line with the risk profile outside of rates. 

MW USDTRY D 8 2 19

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues digesting rally thrown back at the 61.8% of the major move at pace once to the 38% and tekan confluence to bounce to the 50%. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud and tenkan, be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.

MW BTC W 8 2 19

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Sun Aug 4, 2019

  • 17:00 KRW FX Reserves - USD (Jul)
  • 18:30 AUD AIG Services Index (Jul)
  • 20:30 JPY Services PMI (Jul)
  • 20:30 HKD Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
  • 21:00 AUD MI Inflation Gauge (MoM)
  • 21:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM)
  • 21:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI (Jul)

Monday, Aug 5, 2019

  • All Day Holiday Canada - Civic Holiday
  • 01:45 CHF SECO Consumer Climate (Q3)
  • 02:30 CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun)
  • 02:45 EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)
  • 03:15 EUR Spanish Services PMI (Jul)
  • 03:45 EUR Italian Composite PMI (Jul)
  • 03:45 EUR Italian Services PMI (Jul)
  • 03:50 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Jul)
  • 03:50 EUR French Services PMI (Jul)
  • 03:55 EUR German Composite PMI (Jul)
  • 03:55 EUR German Services PMI (Jul)
  • 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Jul)
  • 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP Composite PMI (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP Services PMI (Jul)
  • 04:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence (Aug)
  • 05:00 RUB Russian Forex Intervention (Aug)
  • 06:30 EUR Spanish Consumer Confidence
  • 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Jul)
  • 09:45 USD Services PMI (Jul)
  • 10:00 USD CB Employment Trends Index (Jul)
  • 10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 14:00 USD Loan Officer Survey
  • 15:00 USD Total Vehicle Sales
  • 18:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 18:45 NZD Labor Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 18:45 NZD Unemployment Rate (Q2)
  • 19:00 KRW Current Account (Jun)
  • 19:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jul)
  • 19:30 JPY Household Spending (MoM) (Jun)
  • 21:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)
  • 21:30 AUD Trade Balance (Jun)
  • 23:00 NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ)
  • 23:35 JPY 30-Year JGB Auction

Tuesday Aug 6, 2019

  • 00:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug)
  • 00:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
  • 01:00 JPY Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jun)
  • 01:00 JPY Leading Index (MoM) (Jun)
  • 02:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun)
  • 05:45 GBP 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
  • Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
  • 10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Jun) T
  • entative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
  • 12:00 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 13:00 USD 3-Year Note Auction
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 18:00 AUD AIG Construction Index (Jul)
  • 19:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
  • 21:30 AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Jun)
  • 21:30 AUD Invest Housing Finance (MoM)
  • 21:30 AUD RBA Chart Pack Release
  • 22:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
  • 22:00 NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
  • 22:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
  • 23:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference

Wednesday, Aug 7, 2019

  • 02:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)
  • 02:45 EUR French Current Account (Jun)
  • 02:45 EUR French Trade Balance (Jun)
  • 03:30 GBP Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Jul)
  • 04:00 CNY FX Reserves (USD)
  • 05:40 EUR German 5-Year Bobl Auction
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI (Jul)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 11:00 USD Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Aug)
  • 12:00 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction
  • 15:00 USD Consumer Credit (Jun)
  • 17:30 AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
  • 19:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance (Jul)
  • 19:50 JPY Current Account n.s.a. (Jun)
  • 23:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD)

Thursday Aug 8, 2019

  • 01:00 JPY Economy Watchers Current Index (Jul)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)
  • 04:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
  • 05:30 ZAR Gold Production (YoY) (Jun)
  • 05:30 ZAR Mining Production (Jun)
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
  • 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jun)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction
  • 19:30 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
  • 19:50 JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 19:50 JPY GDP Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 19:50 JPY GDP External Demand (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 19:50 JPY GDP Price Index (YoY)
  • 19:50 JPY GDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 21:30 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
  • 21:30 CNY CPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 21:30 CNY PPI (YoY) (Jul)

Friday Aug 9, 2019

  • All Day Holiday Singapore - National Day
  • All Day Holiday South Africa - Women's Day
  • 01:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
  • 02:00 EUR German Current Account Balance
  • 02:00 EUR German Trade Balance (Jun)
  • 02:45 EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)
  • 02:45 EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ)
  • 04:00 USD IEA Monthly Report
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Jun)
  • 04:30 GBP Business Investment (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 04:30 GBP U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Jun)
  • 04:30 GBP GDP (MoM) 04:30 GBP Index of Services
  • 04:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM)
  • 04:30 GBP Trade Balance (Jun)
  • 05:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 08:15 CAD Housing Starts (Jul)
  • 08:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Jul)
  • 08:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) (Jun)
  • 08:30 CAD Full Employment Change (Jul)
  • 08:30 CAD Part Time Employment Change (Jul)
  • 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Jul)
  • 09:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil & Gas Rig Count
  • 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions

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Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!

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