Market Talk

Google Ad

Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community...

FEAR NOT Brave Investors

JOker as Iranian Ambassador

Strange Time But remember The Joker once served as the Iranian ambassador for the United Nations.

Iran, S&P Earnings and Tory Wars

The Week That Was:

Stock markets came off all time highs for the major US indices. There was nothing new on the trade war front between China and America. We were inundated with Fed speakers, on Thursday New York Fed President John Williams, set off a debate about how much the Fed could cut rates at its July 30-31 meeting — 25 or 50 basis points. The New York Fed later said Williams comments were not about current policy, however the stock market futures rallied on Williams only to close near weekly lows Friday. There was more noise from Iran testing what is left of the nuclear treaty you would think they want a war, the US shot down one of their drones, Iran said the Americans shot down one of their own, Then late Friday just in time for oil settlement with crude near weekly lows, Iran announced they captured a British ship, which it turns out had Russian soldiers on board. How do you say "How to win friends and influence people" in Farsi?

We remind you to stay on your toes, ad nauseum we repeat; In this surreal world that market prices can only go up, with bizzare acceptance that we can't go down and you are a fool if you think otherwise. We have had mixed economic data, no concrete decision on the China and EU trade wars and no decision on Brexit. Here we are (see what ya wanna see).

The Week Ahead

Another big week for potential volatility, Britain's Conservative party selects a new Prime Minister, Iran is heating up, PMI figures will be released, FAANG stocks come into focus after Netflix sold off on earnings and the European Central Bank is expected to tell us an interest cut is imminent. Oh and those trade wars and FOMC theories.

Traders will be over thinking all data ahead of the Federal Reserve's next meeting on 30-31 July. In the US we get existing and new home sales, manufacturing and Services PMI, Durable goods and Q2 GDP (advance).

With the trade war, most analysts still say a US-China trade deal will remain out of reach regardless for some time. On repeat "Again the issue is the disconnect between the story telling about the China deal and inconclusion between the Tories and Labor in the UK. What could go wrong?"

It is now over four months since the latest trade deal between the United States with China deadline of March 1. The White house said it needs more time, then turned around and slapped more tariffs on and said hey we are still talking.  Are we the only one that sees the constant reset to keep markets elevated? If you have half a non partisan brain it should be all pretty clear the great game going on.

For emerging markets the still high US dollar means the Fragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.

Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask? 

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.

Earnings last week included the money center banks reporting; Citigroup; JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs,Wells Fargo; PNC Financial, Bank of New York Mellon,Bank of America; Morgan Stanley, SunTrust, BB&T; Regions Financial, State Street, and American Express.Other big earnings included Microsoft.Netflix, the first FANG name of the quarter,Alcoa and Sclumberger.

Next week more than a quarter of the S&P 500 companies report earnings.

We start off on Monday with Halliburton, RPM International, TD Ameritrade, Steel Dynamics, Celanese, Cadence Designs, Whirlpool, Cal-Maine Foods, Zions Bancorp, Equity Lifestyle Properties

Tuesday Earnings Include: Coca-Cola, Travelers, United Technologies, Hasbro, AutoNation, Lockheed Martin, JetBlue, Fifth Third, Visa, Snap, Biogen, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Discover Financial, Teradyne, FirstEnergy, CIT Group, Kimberly-Clark, PulteGroup, Quest Diagnostics, Harley Davidson, Polaris, Sherwin-Williams

Wednesday Earnings Include: Boeing, Caterpillar, AT&T, Facebook, Ford, Tesla, DeutscheBank, F5 Networks, Raymond James, Kaiser Aluminum, Graco, Las Vegas Sands, UPS, Northrop Grumman, Alexion Pharma, Anthem, Boston Scientific, FreeportMcMoran, Norfolk Southern, Northern Trust, Nasdaq OMX, Six Flags, NextEra Energy, LVMH

Thursday Earnings include: Alphabet, Amazon.com, 3M, Intel, Starbucks, A-B Inveb, Ambev, AstraZenca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Comcast, Hershey, American Airlines, Nokia, Royal Caribbean, Tractor Supply, Brunswick, Dow, Diageo, Cenovus, Southwest Air, Expedia, Mattel, Alaska Air, Boston Beer, Petrobras, MGM Resorts

Friday Earnings include: McDonald’s, Twitter, Abbvie, Nestle, Colgate-Palmolive, Illinios Tool Works, Weyerhaueser, Lear, Cabot Oil and Gas, Phillips 66, Goodyear Tire .

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Trade Imbalances IMF

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

 

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

MW TOP 5 Stocks 7 19 19

Which Stocks Moved US ETF's Last Week

MW TOP 5 ETF Stocks 7 19 19

US Stock Indices Performance

The performance in shares of small-cap companies which are domestically focused than the large-cap firms is a concern for the optimism in the markets, belies the ATH optimism. The small-cap Russell 2000 index had gained 16.6% for the year, which has underperformed the benchmark S&P 500 index which had risen over 19.5%. Whereas the DJIA, NDX and SPX have marked new records highs, it remained 9.7% below its August 2018 high.

MW US Performance 7 19 19

S&P 500

The $SPX after it consolidated around previous ATH back at Tenkan coiled higher but reverted back to speed line after Chikou caught up. Best alternatives are a (ii) or i-ii of iii of wave V higher. We closed under tenkan with Kijun flattening. Note speed and channel lines in tune with algo calibration curve.

MW SPX D 7 19 19 Speed Lines

On the weekly we remain above the triple top but we came off the upper band again. The ATH is over+2/8 and is reverting the spit below we have previous highs, Tenkan and 50 wma with a sharply climbing Kijun.

MW SPX W 7 19 19

Apple $AAPL

MW AAPL W 7 19 19

Amazon $AMZN

MW AMZN W 7 19 19

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note

MW TNX W 7 19 19

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

WTI broke the inner daily downtrend channel and cloud to break the tekan and test the cloud bottom  run to the second channel after running through the 50 dma crossing though the Tenkan, We failed to get back over Kijun even with 'Iran tests'. A C wave or a iii of I are the alternatives. Watch for spits now with fear in the pricing.

MW CL D 7 19 19

WTI again finished the week under the weekly Tenkan, Kijun and 50wma (green), now as key resistance outer channel, We tested the cloud base and closed at the chikou. Watch Murrey confluence with the cloud acting as support, failure.

MW CL W 7 19 19

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Natural Gas reversed daily back throughTenkan (orange) with flattening Kijun above there is potential for a reversal. NG couldnt get above 50dma, 2017-18 low and -3/8 Murrey confluence. With record low futures longs  the 1-2 set up in a bull flag has potential.

MW NG D 7 19 19

Natural Gas maintained the downward channel thwarted by the tenkan  and the 2017-18 lows. Use the channel as your guide with Tenkan upside resistance at week's end. .

MW NG W 7 19 19

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

MW BDI W 7 19 19

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar - AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar continues to coil under the kijun with the bounce off the bottom weekly channel and Murrey Math 0/8. above which it needs to clear into the cloud to get a meaningful bounce in.

MW AUDUSD W 7 19 19

New Zealand Dollar - NZDUSD

The Kiwi rebound continued  over the downward channel aftr breaking the top of the cloud fueled by the bounce off recent lows back through the Tanken and Kijun. Murrey Math Above here is 4/8 and breakdown retest. Watch NZDJPY for Momentum shifts.

MW NZDUSD D 7 19 19

Canadian Dollar - USDCAD

Again Loonie continues with strength after thrown back off top of the cloud and 50dma confluence which confirmed break at Tenkan.  Nearing uptrend line and cloud base, Note downtrend line and cohesian with oil. Keep an eye on Tenkan and WTI control aspects.

MW USDCAD D 7 19 19

Euro - EURUSD

Same story, churning on the Euro Weekly between the Kijun and tenkan since it back tested the flag break that had been forming since September last year which had gathered the energy to get over the Kijun. EUR needs impulse to gather momentum.

MW EURUSD W 7 17 19

EuroPound - EURGBP

Nothing new here .. EURGBP inching it's way up to the 50 wma & top of channel locked in the channel with Tory leadership mess giving EUR a bid. Brexit channel closed over the Kijun & cloud. With all the politics the channel remains valid for now.

MW EURGBP W 7 19 19

Japanese Yen - USDJPY

The dollar yen tried to rally but couldnt get over the tenkan. With the tenkan crossing through the kijun.  Yen buying continued on the crosses, EURJPY and AUDJPY.  Above us is a flattening cloud.

MW USDJPY W 7 19 19

Mexican Peso USDMXN

Mexican peso continued to drift higher after the gap down to the trend line. Watch Kijun as its flattening and we are over tenkan under the cloud. USDMXN seems oblivious to the border crisis.

MW USDMXN D 7 19 19

Turkish Lire USDTRY

The Turkish Lire tested the tenkan but failed and we see the US Dollar closing again around the downtrend formed since May right to the cloud. Above here is resistance all through the cloud to previous dollar uptrend.

MW USDTRY D 7 19 19 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin still digesting rally thrown back at the 61.8% of the major move at pace once to the 38% and tekan confluence to bounce to the 50%. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud and tenkan, be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.

MW BTC W 7 19 19

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Sun July 21, 2019

Monday, July 22, 2019

  • 04:30 HKD CPI (YoY) (Jun)
  • Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report
  • 08:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Jun)
  • 08:30 CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (May)
  • 11:00 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 18:30 AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks

Tues July 23, 2019

  • 01:00 JPY BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
  • 04:00 EUR Spanish Trade Balance
  • 04:00 EUR ECB Bank Lending Survey
  • 04:30 GBP BoE FPC Meeting Minutes
  • 05:45 GBP 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction
  • 06:00 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jul)
  • 08:15 GBP BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY) (MoM)
  • 09:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (May)
  • 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (Jul)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Services Index (Jul)
  • 10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Jul)
  • 13:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 18:45 NZD Trade Balance (MoM) (Jun)
  • 19:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI
  • 19:00 AUD Services PMI
  • 20:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

  • 01:00 JPY Leading Index
  • 02:45 EUR French Business Survey (Jul)
  • 03:15 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
  • 03:15 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Jul)
  • 03:15 EUR French Services PMI (Jul)
  • 03:30 EUR German Composite PMI (Jul)
  • 03:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
  • 03:30 EUR German Services PMI (Jul)
  • 04:00 EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Jun)
  • 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
  • 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Jul)
  • 04:00 EUR Private Sector Loans (YoY)
  • 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Jul)
  • 04:30 GBP Gross Mortgage Approvals
  • Tentative EUR EU Finance Ministers Meeting
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
  • 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI
  • 09:45 USD Services PMI (Jul)
  • 10:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 13:00 USD 5-Year Note Auction
  • 19:00 KRW GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 19:50 JPY Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (YoY)
  • 23:05 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks

Thursday July 25, 2019

  • 03:00 EUR Spanish PPI (YoY)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q2)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Jun)
  • 04:00 EUR German Business Expectations
  • 04:00 EUR German Current Assessment
  • 04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
  • 04:30 HKD Trade Balance
  • 06:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul)
  • 06:00 EUR France Jobseekers Total
  • 07:45 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
  • 07:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
  • 08:30 USD Cap Goods Ship Non Defense Ex Air (MoM)
  • 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun)
  • 08:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (Jun)
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM)
  • 08:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (Jul) 1
  • 1:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction
  • 19:30 JPY Tokyo CPI (YoY)

Friday July 26, 2019

  • 01:00 SGD Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)
  • 02:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
  • 02:45 EUR French Consumer Confidence (Jul)
  • 02:45 EUR French PPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Business Confidence (Jul)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence (Jul)
  • 06:30 RUB Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
  • 08:30 USD Core PCE Prices
  • 08:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 08:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)
  • 08:30 USD PCE Prices
  • 08:30 USD Real Consumer Spending (Q2)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment
  • 11:00 CAD Budget Balance (May)
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count
  • 14:00 USD Loan Officer Survey
  • 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions

----

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!

Log in to comment
Discuss this article in the forums (36 replies).

Google ads