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FEAR NOT Brave Investors

No Fear

Stock Mania, Federal Reserve and Trade Wars

The Week That Was:

China and America put down the gloves and OPEC came and went with minimal impact after the Saudi's and Russians agreed to extend production limits for 9 months. Trade issues hover after we had Iran bully Europe into threatening to leave the nuclear treaty with the EU caving with the US suggesting more tariffs for the EU. The RBA cut rates to record lows. Stockmarkets drank the coolaid and we saw record highs in the SPX, DJIA and Nasdaq. The week finished with a robust jobs report with the index futures selling off initially worried about delayed job cuts. Yields gains on the jobs report giving the USD a bid. Natural gas continued to recover off the lows over 10%. Global PMIs continue to weaken, with German and the UK manufacturing sectors partuiclarly weak.

We remind you to stay on your toes, ad nauseum we repeat; In this surreal world that market prices can only go up, with bizzare acceptance that we can't go down and you are a fool if you think otherwise. We have had mixed economic data, no concrete decision on the China and EU trade wars and no decision on Brexit. Here we are (see what ya wanna see).

The Week Ahead

Iran and trade wars are front and center and never far away. We start off the week with German industrial production for June and the Sentix institute's monthly investor confidence survey, on Monday. The fed is quickly back in focus after the stronger than expected non-farm payrolls report for June, whilst POTUS says the Fed has no clue and needs to cut rates we are at record stock market highs, record low unemployment and a relatively robust economy. Perhaps this is more about the high USD.

Traders will be over thinking all data ahead of the Federal Reserve's next meeting on 30-31 July. Against that backdrop, Fed chairman Jerome Powell's semi-annual report to the House Financial Services Committee is on Wednesday. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's last meeting, on 28-29 June will also be released later that same day.

With the trade war, Chinese consumer price and foreign trade figures due on Wednesday and Friday, will also be closely monitored. Most analysts still say a US-China trade deal will remain out of reach regardless for some time. On repeat "Again the issue is the disconnect between the story telling about the China deal and inconclusion between the Tories and Labor in the UK. What could go wrong?"

It is now over four months since the latest trade deal between the United States with China deadline of March 1. The White house said it needs more time, then turned around and slapped more tariffs on and said hey we are still talking.  Are we the only one that sees the constant reset to keep markets elevated? If you have half a non partisan brain it should be all pretty clear the great game going on.

For emerging markets the still high US dollar means the Fragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks, 12 weeks of losses in the last 16 have the Turkish lira sliding back higher to the dollar. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year.

Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask? 

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it. Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars.

Earnings this week include Delta Air Lines, Fastenal, PepsiCo

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Trade Imbalances IMF

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

 

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

MW TOP 5 Stocks 7 5 19

Which Stocks Moved US ETF's Last Week

MW TOP 5 ETF Stocks 7 5 19

US Stock Indices Performance

The performance in shares of small-cap companies which are domestically focused than the large-cap firms is a concern for the optimism in the markets, belies such optimism. The small-cap Russell 2000 index has gained 16.6% for the year, which has underperformed the benchmark S&P 500 index which has risen 19.5%. Whereas the DJIA, NDX and SPX have marked new records highs, it remains 9.7% below its August 2018 high.

MW US Performance 7 5 19

S&P 500

The $SPX consolidated after new ATH back at Tenkan. We recalculated from sit at +2/8 to +5/8 on the daily and Chikou caught up. Options are the move is a B Flat or i of iii of wave V higher. Watch tenkan and Kijun for flattening or acceleration, Kijun is flat below. Note speed and channel lines in tune with algo calibration curve.

MW SPX D 7 5 19

MW SPX D 7 5 19 Speed Lines

On the weekly we got above the triple top and hit the upper band giving a quick 40 handles ell off. The ATH is +2/8 after impulse off down in 3 waves to the cloud and then impulse higher. We closed again over Tenkan and 50 wma. Clearer here the wave alts we asked on the daily.and note larger fibs

MW SPX W 7 5 19

Apple $AAPL

MW AAPL W 7 5 19

Amazon $AMZN

MW AMZN W 7 5 19

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note

MW TNX W 7 5 19

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

WTI after the 3 touches of the daily downtrend channel only to spit and reversed hard. This week we saw inconclusion but on Friday closed at the 50 dma under the Tenkan, Key are channel and 50 dma with Kijun tests.  A C wave or a iii of I are the alternatives. Watch for spits now with fear in the pricing.

MW CL D 7 5 19

WTI finished the week  over the weekly Tenkan and under 50wma (green), now as key resistance with channel, We got the expected retest there to bring chikou back in balance (blue) - watch Murrey confluence with the cloud acting as resistance.

MW CL W 7 5 19

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Natural Gas broke out of the mini reverse head and shoulders to power through the daily  Tenkan (orange) and flattening Kijun above. NG was stopped by the 50dma as it retested the  2017-18 low and -5/8 Murrey Math 3/8 recalc. With record low futures longs we were wary as at some point pressure gives way.

MW NG D 7 5 19

Natural Gas rallied off the lows back to the 2017-18 lowing to retest the Tenkan upside resistance at week's end. After Price caught up to Chikou stopped the fall last week the balance fed the coil higher.

MW NG W 7 5 19

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

MW BDI W 7 5 19

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar - AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar was again held back by the kijun from last week's bounce off the bottom weekly channel and Murrey Math 0/8 right, above which it needs to clear to get a meaningful bounce in.

MW AUDUSD W 7 5 19

New Zealand Dollar - NZDUSD

The Kiwi rebound was halted at the top of the cloud after the bounce off recent lows  back through the Tenken to halt at the Kijun. Murrey Math 6/8  Above here is 8/8 and breakdown retest. Watch NZDJPY for Momentum shifts.

MW NZDUSD D 7 5 19

Canadian Dollar - USDCAD

The Loonie was thrown back off top of the cloud and 50dma confluence which confirmed the break was actually the Tenkan. We fell to the 38% and closed back at the tenkan In cohesian with oil. Keep an eye on Tenkan and WTI control aspects.

MW USDCAD D 7 5 19

Euro - EURUSD

Again Euro Weekly back tested the flag break after Kijun threw back through the Tenkan towards bull flag retest forming since September last year which had gathered the energy to get over the Kijun.  EUR needs impulse to gather momentum.

MW EURUSD W 7 5 19

EuroPound - EURGBP

Nothing new here .. EURGBP inching it's way up to the 50 wma & top of channel locked in the channel with Tory leadership mess giving EUR a bid. Brexit channel closed over the Kijun & cloud. With all the politics the channel remains valid for now.

MW EURGBP W 7 5 19

Japanese Yen - USDJPY

The dollar yen tried to rally but couldnt get over the tenkan. With the tenkan crossing through the kijun.  Yen buying continued on the crosses, EURJPY and AUDJPY.  Above us is a flattening cloud.

MW USDJPY W 7 5 19

Mexican Peso USDMXN

Mexican peso continued to drift higher after the gap down to te trend line. Watch Kijun as its flattening and we are over tenkan and in the cloud.

MW USDMXN D 7 5 19

Turkish Lire USDTRY

The Turkish Lire last week stayed under the kijun and flirted with the cloud and Tenkan all weeks trying to find balance.Resiatance  is old trend line and Kijun and cloud top

MW USDTRY D 7 5 19

Bitcoin

Bitcoin rally was thrown back at the 61.8% of the major move at pace once to the 38% and tekan confluence to bounce to the 50%. Use your MM rules as algos control the herd here, support is the cloud and tenkan, be wary of sharp ABC, 1-2 moves.

MW BTC W 7 5 19

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Sun July 7, 2019

  • 03:30 EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks
  • 19:50 JPY Adjusted Current Account
  • 19:50 JPY Bank Lending (YoY) (Jun)
  • 19:50 JPY Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (May)
  • 19:50 JPY Current Account n.s.a. (May)
  • 20:30 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  • 21:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)

Monday, July 8, 2019

  • 01:00 JPY Economy Watchers Current Index (Jun)
  • 02:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
  • 02:00 EUR German Trade Balance (May)
  • Tentative CNY FX Reserves (USD)
  • 04:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence (Jul)
  • 05:00 SGD Foreign Reserves USD (MoM) (Jun)
  • 10:00 USD CB Employment Trends Index (Jun)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 15:00 USD Consumer Credit (May)
  • 19:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jun)
  • 19:30 JPY Average Cash Earnings (YoY)
  • 19:30 JPY Overtime Pay (YoY) (May)
  • 19:50 JPY M2 Money Stock (YoY)
  • Tentative KRW BOK Financial Stability Board Meeting Minutes
  • 21:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jun)
  • 21:30 AUD NAB Business Survey (Jun)

Tues July 9, 2019

  • All Day Holiday Brazil - Sao Paulo State Rebellion Day
  • 01:45 CHF Unemployment Rate (Jun) .4%
  • 02:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
  • Tentative CNY M2 Money Stock (YoY)
  • Tentative CNY New Loans
  • 06:00 USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (Jun)
  • Tentative CNY Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY)
  • 08:15 CAD Housing Starts (Jun)
  • 08:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) (May)
  • 08:45 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY)
  • 10:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (May)
  • 10:10 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 13:00 USD 3-Year Note Auction
  • 14:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 14:00 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • Tentative NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
  • 18:45 NZD FPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 19:00 KRW Unemployment Rate (Jun)
  • 19:50 JPY PPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 20:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Jul)
  • 21:30 CNY CPI (YoY) (Jun)
  • 21:30 CNY CPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 21:30 CNY PPI (YoY) (Jun)

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

  • 02:45 EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
  • 04:30 GBP Construction Output (MoM) (May)
  • 04:30 GBP GDP (MoM)
  • 04:30 GBP Index of Services
  • 04:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
  • 04:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May)
  • 04:30 GBP Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change
  • 04:30 GBP Trade Balance (May)
  • 05:40 EUR German 10-Year Bund Auction
  • 05:45 EUR Italian 12-Month BOT Auction
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
  • 10:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
  • 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (May)
  • 10:00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
  • 10:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
  • 10:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision
  • 10:15 CAD BOC Press Conference
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction
  • 13:10 GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
  • 13:30 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 14:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 18:45 NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 
  • 19:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance (Jun)
  • 21:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations
  • 21:10 AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
  • 21:30 AUD Home Loans (MoM) (May)
  • 23:00 KRW M2 Money supply (May)

Thursday July 11, 2019

  • 00:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)
  • 02:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 02:00 EUR German HICP (MoM) (Jun)
  • 02:45 EUR French CPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 02:45 EUR French HICP (MoM) (Jun)
  • 05:30 GBP BoE Financial Stability Report
  • 05:30 GBP BoE FPC Meeting Minutes
  • 05:30 ZAR Gold Production (YoY) (May)
  • 05:30 ZAR Mining Production (May)
  • 05:45 EUR Italian 30-Year BTP Auction
  • 05:45 EUR Italian 7-Year BTP Auction
  • Tentative EUR Eurogroup Meetings
  • 06:15 EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks
  • 07:00 USD OPEC Monthly Report
  • 07:00 ZAR Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May)
  • 07:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
  • 08:30 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 08:30 USD CPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 08:30 USD Real Earnings (MoM) (Jun)
  • 08:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (May)
  • 10:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:00 USD Cleveland CPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 11:10 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 12:00 USD WASDE Report
  • 12:15 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 12:30 USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
  • 13:00 USD 30-Year Bond Auction
  • 13:30 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • 14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance (Jun)
  • 17:00 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
  • 17:00 KRW Export Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
  • 17:00 KRW Import Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
  • 18:30 NZD Business NZ PMI (Jun)
  • 20:00 SGD GDP (QoQ) (Q2)
  • Tentative CNY Trade Balance (USD)

Friday July 12, 2019

  • 00:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (May)
  • 00:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
  • 02:00 EUR German WPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish HICP (MoM) (Jun)
  • 03:00 CNY FDI 6.80%
  • 04:00 USD IEA Monthly Report
  • 04:30 GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
  • 05:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (May)
  • Tentative EUR EU Finance Ministers Meeting
  • 08:30 USD Core PPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 08:30 USD PPI (MoM) (Jun)
  • 10:00 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 11:00 USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count
  • 15:30 GBP CFTC speculative net positions

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday July 8

Before Open

  • AZZ INC AZZ

After Close

Tuesday July 9

Before Open

  • PEPSICO INC PEP NORTHERN TECH NTIC LINDSAY CORP LNN

After Close

  • WD 40 CO WDFC LEVI STRAUSS&CO LEVI KUSHCO HOLDING KSHB HELEN OF TROY HELE ALIMENT COU-NEW ATD

Wednesday July 10

Before Open

  • ANGIODYNAMICS ANGO MSC INDL DIRECT MSM

After Close

  • AAR CORP AIR BED BATH&BEYOND BBBY COGECO COMMUNIC CCA COGECO -SUB VTG CGO EXFO INC EXFO EXFO INC-TS EXF FIRAN TEC GP-TS FTG FIRAN TECH GRP FTGFF PRICESMART INC PSMT SARATOGA INVEST SAR SIMULATION PLUS SLP VOXX INTL CP VOXX

Thursday July 11

Before Open

  • DELTA AIR LINES DAL EMMIS COMM CL A EMMS FASTENAL FAST GOODFOOD MKT-TS FOO THERATECHNOLGS THERF

After Close

  • ARITZIA INC ATZ

Friday July 12

Before Open

  • MTY FOOD GROUP MTY  ORKLA AS-ADR ORKLY

After Close

  • Nil

For More Earnings and estimates visit

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!

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