Market Talk

Google Ad

Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community...

FEAR NOT Brave Investors

Unicorn RIsk

IPO Unicorns, Earnings and Easter

The Week That Was:

The risk off levitation in markets continued with S&P 500 is now within one per cent of September's record closing high, and the S&P 500 Total Return Index, which includes reinvested dividends, regained record levels, recovering all the sell-off in the closing months of 2018.in the surreal world seemingly in a place that can only go up some would say in Disney Land, Disney shares jumped 11.5 per cent to an all-time high, providing the biggest boost to the Dow and the S&P 500 after pricing its upcoming streaming service which sent rival Netflix down 4.5 per cent. The bizzare acceptance that we can't go down and you are a fool if you think otherwise. We can had mixed economic data, no decision on the trade war, no decision on Brexit and earnings have been marked down a beat won;t be hard to beat and here we are (see what ya wanna see).

Doesn't seem to matter that everyone from ECB, to the IMF to the Fed worries about the insipid global economy. The CBOE Volatility Index fell to a fresh six-month low on Friday. In the largest energy deal since 2016, Chevron said it would buy Anadarko Petroleum Corp for $US33 billion in cash and stock. Chevron's stock dipped by 4.9 per cent following the announcement, Anadarko soared 32 per cent.

Economic reports for the most part continue to dissappoint, as said earlier the odd positive report is latched onto by the market. Be aware of the herd, the machines and the greed. Despite all the chaos we sit just over 2900 on the S&P as the so called Powell Put and POTUS obsession with the Dow has put us in the Twilight zone with risk reward. WTI plays around $64 despite waiver extensions, Citgo sanction reversal and OPEC lowering demand and increasing supply estimates again as Gasoline draws weigh.

The Week Ahead

We start off the week with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for April with perspective on manufacturing conditions in the New York Fed region which has seen a noticeable deceleration in recent months. Then later in the week we have the IHS Markit flash Purchasing Managers’ Index so help us guage if investor optimism is justified. China’s first-quarter GDP data is out the day before.

The world’s largest and third-largest democracies go the polls this week. Indonesia holds parliamentary and presidential elections on April 17. India’s elections are spread over seven phases and 39 days. Investors have bet on no change driving up bonds and stocks. In India with Prime Minister Modi and his coalition there are risks he will lose his majority and a new partnership that could slow down reforms. The markets will be thinner also with Easter Week and public holidays in Europe, Canada. U.S. and Australia. Japanese markets will also be closed for a string of holidays in late April.

Following Lyft's IPO there is eight IPOs planning to raise $2.5 billion ahead of the Easter holiday weekend, the busiest week of the 2019 IPO market. Year-to-date, 26 IPOs have raised $6.6 billion. This week includes tech unicorns Pinterest and Zoom, but also a vaping products distributor in Greenlane, an insurer in Palomar and an energy company, Brigham Minerals. For May there already 12 new filings including Uber (UBER).

It is now over six weeks since the latest trade deal between the United States with China deadline of March 1. The White house has said it needs more time. Are we the only one that sees the constant reset to keep markets elevated? If you have half a non partisan brain it should be all pretty clear the great game going on.

For emerging markets the high US dollar means the Fragile 5 continue to shake. Argentina and Turkey are red letter risks. Nine weeks of losses in the last 10 have the Turkish lira sliding back toward six to the dollar, the level that set caused panic last year. South Africa has Presidential elections on May 8. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, India and Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask? 

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars. 

Earnings last week included JPMorgan Chase & Co, PNC and Wells Fargo & Co to begin the earnings season in earnest. Citigroup Inc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc will report this Monday, followed by Bank of America Corp and Morgan Stanley on Tuesday. Other earnings to watch include Honeywell International, Union Pacific Corp. Kansas City Southern, Charles Schwab ; Netflix , IBM, Johnson & Johnson, United Continent and UnitedHealth Group; PepsiCo, Kinder Morgan, Abbott Labs, Las Vegas Sands, American Express, Philip Morris International and Schlumberger.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Trade Imbalances IMF

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

  • U.S. Adds 2 Oil Rigs, 3 in Texas With US Production All Time High
  • Into The Vortex - EIA Reports +25 Bcf Build in Natural Gas Storage
  • Around The Barrel - Large Crude Oil Build of +7029k bbls Offset By Gasoline Draw of -7710k bbls
  • ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged As Expected Sees Rates Unchanged To End of 2019
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report April 2019
  • U.S. The World's Largest Medical Device Market and Export Leader

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

MW Top 5 US 4 12 19

 Which Stocks Moved US ETF's Last Week

MW Top 5 US ETF 4 12 19

US Stock Indices Performance

MW US Performance 4 12 19

S&P 500

The $SPX momentum slowed down after the energy from weekly cloud holding and downside failure between +2/8 and +3/8MurreyMath and the chikou.

MW SPX D 4 12 19

On the weekly we see the breakdown retest from last year being retested.and at +1/8. All well overbought signals, caution if long with target now met from the 1.618% downside extenstion break retention.

MW SPX D 4 12 19

Apple $AAPL

MW AAPL W 4 12 19

Amazon $AMZN

MW AMZN W 4 12 19

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note

MW TNX W 4 12 19

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI)

WTI consolidated after the spit of a spit of the 50 wma (green) and previous break retest from a year ago into the weekly cloud around the 61.8% the 2019 impulse wave down. Kijun Sen (pink) to bring chikou back in balance (blue) tenkan remains support - watch Murrey confluence.

MW WTI W 4 12 19

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) 

Natural Gas tested the downside again but showed little energy as the weekly view shows with the tenkan holding. The resistance clearly the weekly cloud and previous 61.8% Fibbo converging with the breakdown. Downside clear with 100% also the 2017-18 low - nothing new here

MW NG W 4 12 19

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)  

MW BDI W 4 12 19

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar - AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar got above the weekly Tenkan and Kijun but with no impulse. Range is 1/8 to 3/8 Murrey Math until proven otherwise. Elections ahead may get some volatility.

MW AUD W 4 12 19

New Zealand Dollar - NZDUSD

The kiwi is pushing up on the tenkan and daily cloud trading between the 6 & 7/8 Murrey Math lines, under the 50% Fib and was been in the Weekly Cloud for a few week's now, it would need to break out from that to move from the sideways action.

MW NZD W 4 12 19

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

The Loonie has been flirting with the tenkan (orange) on the downside and the Murray Math 3/8 and Chikou within the weekly pennant (white), still inconclusive outside of that range. The Kijun is trying to close through the Tenkan.

MW USDCAD W 4 12 19

Euro (EURUSD)

The Euro Weekly sits just over the recent lows again after testing the channel, Again we now evaulate if the previous spit reversal after breaking the highlighted Fib was conclusive. If we do get a rally over Tenkan Adam's Theory should apply. Meanwhile same elements, watch EURGBP

MW EUR W 4 12 19

EuroPound (EURGBP)

The channel that is Brexit closed at the Tenkan as the EURUSD component hekd the channel, back testing the chikou and lower band. With all the politics the channel remains valid for now.

MW EURGBP W 4 12 19

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

The dollar yen is still rebalancing after the rally that came after the $AAPL warning sell where risk off rushed to Yen reversed. Downside is tenkan (orange) which held and the effective double bottom from Mar/Dec 2018. The weekly cloud and pennant break (blue) the range.

MW USDJPY W 4 12 19

Mexican Peso (USDMXN)

The Mexican peso again strengthened this week after it had weakened with the rest of the emerging markets closing near the double bottom in the USDMZN at the Daily 0/8 Murrey Math after the cloud restrained weakness.

MW USDMXN D 4 12 19

Turkish Lire (USDTRY) 

The $USDTRY continued to benefit from the Lire weakening despite intervention. this week, we are locked between +2/8 Murrey Math off the daily cloud with Tenkan energy and the downsode the Kijun, The 50 also supported. Nine weeks of losses in the last 10 have the Turkish lira sliding back toward six to the dollar, the level that set caused panic last year.

MW USDTRY D 4 12 19

Bitcoin  

Bitcoin volatilty is back testing the daily tenkan after flirting with 5-8 Murrey Math grid. Use your MM rules as the algos control the herd here with Tenkan and weekly highs your guides..

 MW BTC W 4 12 19

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Mon Apr 15 2019

  • 02:30 CHF PPI (MoM) (Mar)
  • 06:00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report
  • 10:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 12:00 GBP MPC Member Haskel Speaks
  • 13:00 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 16:00 USD US Foreign Buying, T-bonds (Feb)
  • 16:00 USD Overall Net Capital Flow (Feb)
  • 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Feb)
  • 16:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including Swaps (Feb)
  • 20:00 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
  • 21:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 21:30 CNY House Prices (YoY) (Mar)
  • 23:00 NZD RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Mar)

Tues Apr 16 2019

  • 00:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)
  • 04:30 GBP Average Earnings ex Bonus (Feb)
  • 04:30 GBP Claimant Count Change (Mar)
  • 04:30 GBP Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM)
  • 04:30 GBP Unemployment Rate (Feb)
  • 05:00 EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (Apr)
  • 05:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr)
  • 05:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (Feb)
  • 08:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
  • 09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate (Mar)
  • 09:15 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
  • 09:15 USD Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar)
  • 10:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Apr)
  • Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 18:45 NZD CPI (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 19:50 JPY Trade Balance (Mar)
  • 20:30 AUD MI Leading Index (MoM)
  • 20:40 SGD Trade Balance
  • 22:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Mar)
  • 22:00 CNY GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 22:00 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar)
  • 22:00 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
  • 22:00 CNY Chinese Unemployment Rate
  • 22:00 CNY NBS Press Conference

Wed Apr 17 2019

  • All Day Holiday India - Dr.Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti
  • 00:30 JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Feb)
  • 00:30 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian CPI (MoM) (Mar)
  • 04:00 EUR Current Account (Feb)
  • Tentative ZAR SARB Monetary Policy Review
  • 04:00 ZAR CPI (MoM) (Mar)
  • 04:30 GBP CPI (MoM) (Mar)
  • 04:30 GBP PPI Output (MoM) (Mar)
  • 05:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance (Feb)
  • 05:00 EUR CPI (MoM) (Mar)
  • 05:00 EUR Trade Balance (Feb)
  • 05:40 EUR German 30-Year Bund Auction
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW)
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:30 USD Trade Balance (Feb)
  • 08:30 CAD CPI (MoM) (Mar)
  • 08:30 CAD Trade Balance (Feb)
  • 09:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
  • 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Feb)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 12:45 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 14:00 USD Beige Book
  • 19:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI
  • 19:00 AUD Services PMI
  • 19:00 JPY Reuters Tankan Index (Apr)
  • 19:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying
  • 19:50 JPY Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks
  • 21:00 KRW Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
  • 21:30 AUD Employment Change (Mar)
  • 21:30 AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
  • 21:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (Mar)

Thur Apr 18 2019

  • 02:00 CHF Trade Balance (Mar)
  • 02:00 EUR German PPI (MoM) (Mar)
  • 03:15 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 03:15 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Apr)
  • 03:15 EUR French Services PMI (Apr)
  • 03:30 EUR German Composite PMI (Apr)
  • 03:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 03:30 EUR German Services PMI (Apr)
  • 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Apr)
  • 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Apr)
  • 04:30 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
  • 05:00 EUR Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM) (Feb)
  • 05:00 EUR Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr)
  • 08:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
  • 08:30 CAD Retail Sales (Mar)
  • 08:30 CAD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI
  • 09:45 USD Services PMI (Apr)
  • 20:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Feb)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 5-Year TIPS Auction
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
  • 17:00 KRW PPI (MoM) (Mar)
  • 19:30 JPY National CPI (MoM)

Friday April 19, 2019

  • All Day Holiday - Good Friday - Germany Italy Brazil Spain India South Africa United States Hong Kong France Canada New Zealand Switzerland United Kingdom Singapore  Australia
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Business Confidence (Apr)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence (Apr)
  • 08:30 USD Building Permits (Mar)
  • 08:30 USD Housing Starts (Mar)
  • 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Apr 15

Before Open

After Market Close

  • PINNACLE FIN PT PNFP SERVISFIRST BCS SFBS WINTRUST FINL WTFC

Tuesday Apr 16

Before Open

  • BANK OF AMER CP BAC BLACKROCK INC BLK COMERICA INC CMA DESTINATION MTR DEST FIRST HRZN NATL FHN JOHNSON & JOHNS JNJ MERCANTILE BANK MBWM PROGRESSIVE COR PGR PROLOGIS INC PLD UNITEDHEALTH GP UNH WIPRO LTD-ADR WIT

After Close

  • CONSOL TOMOKA CTO CSX CORP CSX FULTON FINL FULT HANCOCK WHITNEY HWC HOPE BANCORP HOPE INTERACTIVE BRK IBKR INTL BUS MACH IBM MELLANOX TECH MLNX NETFLIX INC NFLX UNITED CONT HLD UAL UNITED FIN BCP UBNK UTD COMM FIN CP UCFC WESBANCO INC WSBC

Wednesday Apr 17

Before Open

  • ABBOTT LABS ABT ASML HOLDING NV ASML BADGER METER BMI BANCO LATINOAME BLX BANK OF NY MELL BK ERICSSON LM ADR ERIC HOOKER FURNITUR HOFT KANSAS CITY SOU KSU METRO INC MRU MORGAN STANLEY MS PENTAIR PLC PNR PEPSICO INC PEP POLYONE CORP POL TEXTRON INC TXT US BANCORP USB

After Close

  • ADTRAN INC ADTN ALCOA CORP AA ATLASSIAN CP-A TEAM BANCORPSOUTH BK BXS BOSTON PRIV FIN BPFH CATHAY GENL BCP CATY COHEN&STRS INC CNS CROWN CASTLE CCI CROWN HLDGS INC CCK E TRADE FINL CP ETFC EAGLE BCP INC EGBN GREAT SOUTH BCP GSBC KINDER MORGAN KMI LAS VEGAS SANDS LVS LIMELIGHT NETWK LLNW PIER 1 IMPORTS PIR PLEXUS CORP PLXS PREFERRED BANK PFBC PZENA INVESTMNT PZN RLI CORP RLI SELECT SANDS CP SLSDF SELECT SANDS-TS SNS SL GREEN REALTY SLG SLEEP NUMBER CP SNBR SLM CORP SLM TEXAS CAP BCSHS TCBI THESCORE INC-A SCR TORCHMARK CORP TMK TRISTATE CP HLD TSC TRIUMPH BANCORP TBK UMPQUA HLDGS CP UMPQ UTD RENTALS INC URI

Thursday Apr 18

Before Open

  • ALLY FINANCIAL ALLY AMER EXPRESS CO AXP BB&T CORP BBT BLACKSTONE GRP BX CHART INDUSTRIE GTLS CHECK PT SOFTW CHKP CITIZENS FIN GP CFG COUNTY BANCORP ICBK DANAHER CORP DHR DOVER CORP DOV EAST WEST BC EWBC GENUINE PARTS GPC HOME BANCSHARES HOMB HONEYWELL INTL HON INSTEEL INDS IIIN KEYCORP NEW KEY LAWSON PRODUCTS LAWS MANPOWER INC WI MAN OFG BANCORP OFG PHILIP MORRIS PM POOL CORP POOL POPULAR INC BPOP PPG INDS INC PPG REGIONS FINL CP RF ROGERS COM B-TS RCI ROGERS COMM CLB RCI S&T BANCORP INC STBA SANDY SPRING SASR SB FINANCIAL GP SBFG SCHLUMBERGER LT SLB SNAP-ON INC SNA SONOCO PRODUCTS SON SUNTRUST BKS STI SYNCHRONY FIN SYF TRAVELERS COS TRV UNION PAC CORP UNP WEBSTER FINL CP WBS

After Close

  • AMER RIVER BSH AMRB EXPONENT INC EXPO GLACIER BANCORP GBCI INDEP BK MASS INDB INTUITIVE SURG ISRG PEOPLES UTD FIN PBCT

Friday Apr 19

Before Open

After Close

  • Nil

For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

Log in to comment
Discuss this article in the forums (32 replies).

Google ads