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FEAR NOT Brave Investors

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Jobs, BREXIT and Trade Wars

The Week That Was:

Markets are living in a surreal world seemingly in a place that can only go up. After the loosening of credit by the Central Banks, spooked by the collapse in December and despite a faltering global economy, trade wars and geopolitical hotspots galore, markets have been on a tear. In the first quarter the Shanghai Composite was up 28.6%, Nasdaq was up 16.5%, Italy's MIB up 16.2% S&P 500 up 13.1%, France's CAC 40 up 13%, Canada's TSX up 12.4%, Australia's ASX 200 up 9.5%. GErmany's DAX up 9.2%, UK's FTSE 100 up 8.2% and Japan's Nikkei up 6%. Big returns but remember this was off the sell off lows. The S&P 400 Mid-Cap index has surged to its best start to a year since 1991 despite a slowing global economic conditions and weaker trade growth.

If we had a strong political and economic structure and value in the stockmarkets by any measure this would perhaps make sense. However there isn't, what is scary is the Central Banks know this and most polticians are seemingly blind to the risk. Bizarely we had US economic advisor Kudlow in the same speech saying the Fed should cut rates 50 bp tomorrow AND we have a strong economy. Be aware and DO NOT let wishful thinking or partisanship cloud your judgement.

Economic reports continue to dissappoint, the odd positive report is latched onto by the market. Be aware of the herd, the machines and the greed. One swallow does not make a summer. The market will latch onto distractions, Friday we saw the Lyft IPO which opened up 21% but finished up just 8.74%. Thats a lot to give back on just three hours of trading on your first day.

Despite all the chaos we sit over 2800 on the S&P as the so called Powell Put and POTUS obsession with the Dow has put us in the Twilight zone with risk reward. WTI oil over $58 despite waiver extensions, Citgo sanction reversal and OPEC lowering demand and increasing supply estimates.

Brexit highlight the ineptitude of leadership and disregard of voters wishes, that UK Parliment March 29 deadline to leave the EU is upon us. Apparently there is an extension or maybe No Deal ....

The Week Ahead

We start off the week with a slew of manufacturing PMI reports from around the globe. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing report will tell us the pace of new orders, production, employment, deliveries, inventories, export orders, and prices paid for manufacturers. The week finishes with the US. Jobs report. The market is eager to see if last month's huge miss was an abberation or a trend.

It is now a month since the latest trade deal between the United States with China deadline ofy March 1. The White house has said it needs more time. Are we the only one that sees the constant reset to keep markets elevated?

The Turkish Lire took the batton from Argentina's for emerging market risk. With Erdogam responding with spending a third ofTurkey's reserves defending the Lire with 1000% overnight rates to stop the fall. The Fragile 5 continue to shake. Presidential elections are scheduled in Ukraine on March 31 with local elections in Turkey also scheduled that day. South Africa has Presidential elections on May 8. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, India and Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask? 

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

 

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars. 

Earnings last week included BlackBerry, CarMax, Carnival Corp, Conn’s, Five Below, KB Homes. Lennar, Lululemon Athletica and Red Hat reporting. The week ahead we have Cal-Maine Foods, Constellation Brands, Gamestop, Roots and Walgreens reporting.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

 

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings

 

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

 MW Top 5 STOCKS 3 29 19

 Which Stocks Moved US ETF's Last Week

 MW Top 5 ETF STOCKS 3 29 19

 US Stock Indices Performance 

 MW US Performance 3 29 19

  S&P 500 

The $SPX again flirted with the weekly cloud which held. On the daily we can see the Kijun-Sen touched the tenkan San and turned over giving us 'the kiss of death'. We failed to see accelerating momentum and now back over the 8/8 MurreyMath but at the chikou.

 MW SPX D 3 29 19

 MW SPX W 3 29 19

  Apple $AAPL  

 MW AAPL W 3 29 19

Amazon $AMZN  

 MW AMZN W 3 29 19

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note   

 MW TNX W 3 29 19

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI) 

WTI has spat both sides of the weekly previous break retest from a year ago and back through the 50wma (green) and Kijun Sen (pink) to bring chikou back in balance (blue) tenkan remains support - watch Murrey confluence.

 MW WTI W 3 29 19

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) 

Natural Gas on the weekly view shows the resistance clearly the weekly cloud and previous 61.8% Fibbo converging with the breakdown. Downside clear with 100% also the 2017-18 low - nothing new here

 MW NG W 3 29 19

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)  

 MW BDI W 3 29 19

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)  

The Aussie dollar comes into interesting week with the RBA meeting and Budget within hours of each other. Trapped between enkan and Kijun do we get a break on the event risk? Range is 1/8 to 3/8 Murrey Math until proven otherwise.

 MW AUDUSD W 3 29 19

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD) 

The kiwi can be best described as in balance for now closing under the 50% Fin and was been in the Weekly Cloud for a few week's now, it would need to break out from that to move from the sideways action. 

 MW NZDUSD W 3 29 19

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) 

The Loonie has been flirting witht he tenkan (orange) on the downside and the Murray Math 3/8 and Chikou, still inconclusive outside of that range.

 MW USDCAD W 3 29 19

Euro (EURUSD) 

The Euro Weekly Tenkan failed again after testing the channel but failing on the woeful German GDP, We now evaulate if the previous spit reversal after breaking the highlighted Fib was conclusive. If we do get a rally over Tenkan Adam's Theory should apply. Meanwhile same elements.

 MW EURUSD W 3 29 19

 EuroPound (EURGBP) 

The channel that is Brexit with a spit of the Tenkan as the EURUSD component sold off, back testing the chikou and lower band. Another vote this week, another fail, when will it end?

MW EURGBP W 3 29 19 

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

The dollar yen is still rebalancing after the rally that came after the $AAPL warning sell where risk off rushed to Yen reversed. Downside is tenkan (orange) which held and the effective double bottom from Mar/Dec 2018. The weekly cloud and pennant break (blue) the range,

MW USDJPY W 3 22 19 

 Mexican Peso (USDMXN) 

The Mexican peso weakened with the rest of the emerging markets since the double bottom in the USDMZN at the Daily 0/8 Murrey Math, for now the cloud restrains weakness.

 MW USDMXN D 3 29 19

Turkish Lire (USDTRY) 

A wild week in the $USDTRY, not the Turkish Delight Erdogan was hoping for.  With 1000% overnight rates the $USDTRY retested the cloud again but moved sharply higher to the next Murrey Math band.off the daily cloud with Tenkan energy, The 50 also supported. Local elections scheduled on March 31 in Turkey and USD strength be alert

 MW USDTRY D 3 29 19

Bitcoin  

Bitcoin volatilty is the lowest seen for years as it still works through the bubble burst, it is retesting the breakdown of February at 1/8 on the daily Murrey Math grid.

 MW BTC D 3 29 19

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Mon Apr 1 2019

  • 01:30 AUD Commodity Prices (YoY)
  • 03:15 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • 03:30 CHF SVME PMI (Mar)
  • 03:45 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • 03:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • 03:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Feb)
  • 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • 04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 
  • Tentative GBP Inflation Expectations
  • 05:00 EUR CPI (YoY) (Mar)
  • 08:30 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 09:30 CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • 10:00 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Jan)
  • 10:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Feb)
  • 10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 20:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (Feb)
  • 23:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
  • 23:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement

Tues Apr 2 2019

  • 01:00 INR Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • 02:30 CHF CPI (MoM) (Mar)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change
  • 04:30 GBP Construction PMI (Mar)
  • 05:00 EUR PPI (MoM) (Feb) 
  • 05:00 EUR Unemployment Rate (Feb)
  • 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (MoM)
  • 09:45 USD ISM - NY Business Conditions (Mar)
  • Tentative NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 17:30 AUD AIG Services Index (Mar)
  • 18:00 AUD Services PMI
  • 20:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM)
  • 20:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)
  • 20:30 AUD RBA Chart Pack Release
  • 20:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 20:30 AUD Trade Balance (Feb)
  • 20:30 HKD Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • 21:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI (Mar)

Wed Apr 3 2019

  • 03:45 EUR Italian Services PMI (Mar)
  • 03:50 EUR French Markit Composite PMI (Mar)
  • 03:50 EUR French Services PMI (Mar)
  • 03:55 EUR German Composite PMI (Mar)
  • 03:55 EUR German Services PMI (Mar)
  • 04:00 EUR Markit Composite PMI (Mar)
  • 04:00 EUR Services PMI (Mar)
  • 04:15 EUR Spanish Services PMI (Mar)
  • 05:00 EUR Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 05:30 GBP Services PMI (Mar)
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) 
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar) 
  • 08:30 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 09:00 SGD Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 
  • 09:45 USD Markit Composite PMI (Mar) 
  • 09:45 USD Services PMI (Mar)
  • 10:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 19:00 KRW Current Account (Feb)
  • 23:45 JPY 30-Year JGB Auction

Thur Apr 4 2019

  • 02:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (Feb)
  • 02:15 INR Interest Rate Decision 
  • 07:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY)
  • 07:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (Mar)
  • 07:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 10:00 CAD Ivey PMI (Mar)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
  • 16:00 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 18:30 AUD AIG Construction Index (Mar)
  • 19:30 JPY Average Cash Earnings (YoY)
  • 19:30 JPY Household Spending (MoM) (Feb)
  • 19:50 JPY Foreign Reserves (USD) (Mar)

Friday April 5, 2019

  • All Day Holiday Hong Kong - Ching Ming Festival
  • All Day Holiday China - Ching Ming Festival
  • 01:00 JPY Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Feb)
  • 01:00 JPY Leading Index (MoM) (Feb)
  • 02:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)
  • 02:45 EUR French Current Account (Feb)
  • 02:45 EUR French Trade Balance (Feb)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb)
  • 03:30 GBP Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
  • 04:00 EUR Spanish Consumer Confidence
  • Tentative EUR Eurogroup Meetings
  • 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Mar)
  • 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar)
  • 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Mar)
  • 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
  • 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Mar)\\
  • 08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
  • 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Mar)
  • 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Mar)
  • 08:30 CAD Employment Change (Mar)
  • 08:30 CAD Full Employment Change (Mar)
  • 08:30 CAD Part Time Employment Change (Mar)
  • 08:30 CAD Participation Rate (Mar)
  • 08:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (Mar)
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
  • 15:00 USD Consumer Credit (Feb)
  • 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Apr 1

Before Open

  • ARCIMOTO INC FUV BLONDER TONGUE BDR CAL-MAINE FOODS CALM DIGITAL ALLY IN DGLY MICT INC MICT Before Open NAVIGATOR HLDGS NVGS RICEBRAN TECH RIBT SIGMA LABS INC SGLB SORL AUTO PARTS SORL

After Market Close

  • ASTEA INTL INC ATEA BIOHITECH GLBL BHTG BIO-KEY INTL BKYI CAPSTONE CO INC CAPC CHANTICLEER HLD BURG CVD EQUIP CORP CVV EASTMAN KODAK KODK EDAP TMS SA-ADR EDAP ENERGY FOCUS IN EFOI EVOLVING SYSTEM EVOL FLEXIBLE SOLTNS FSI GROWGENERATION GRWG IANTHUS CAP HLD IAN IDEAL POWER INC IPWR IMAGEWARE SYS IWSY INNOVUS PHARMA INNVD LXRANDCO INC-B LXR MOBIVITY HLDGS MFON NXT ENERGY SOL NSFDF ONCOCYTE CORP OCX PRECISION THERP AIPT PROMETIC LIFE PFSCF PROMETIC LIF-TS PLI S&P INDL SPIN TITAN PHARMA TTNP VISLINK TECHNLG VISL

Tuesday Apr 2

Before Open

  • ALTIMMUNE INC ALT ANGIODYNAMICS ANGO BRI-CHEM CORP BRY LAMB WESTON HLD LW MATINAS BIOPHAR MTNB WALGREENS BAI WBA

After Close

  • DAVE&BUSTRS ENT PLAY EXFO INC EXFO EXFO INC-TS EXF GAMESTOP CORP GME KINGOLD JEWELRY KGJI NOVAGOLD RES-TS NG NOVAGOLD RSRCS NG VERSAPAY CORP VPY

Wednesday Apr 3

Before Open

ACUITY BRANDS AYI ROOTS CORP ROO SIGNET JEWELERS SIG

After Close

  • ASCENDIS PHARMA ASND LANDEC CORP LNDC MIDWEST ENERGY MEEC MITCHAM INDS MIND RESOURCES CNCTN RECN

Thursday Apr 4

Before Open

  • CONSTELLATN BRD STZ INTL SPEEDWAY ISCA RPM INTL INC RPM SCHNITZER STEEL SCHN SECOO HOLDING SECO SIMPLY GOOD FDS SMPL

After Close

  • AEHR TEST SYS AEHR DULUTH HOLDINGS DLTH FRANKLIN COVEY FC

Friday Apr 5

Before Open

CORUS ENTMT-TS CJR CORUS ENTMT-B CJREF

After Close

  • Nil

For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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