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FEAR NOT Brave Investors

 Germany Merkel Economy

Germany, BREXIT and Trade Wars

The Week That Was:

Central Banks were out with their message this week, economies are weak, be wary and we are not sure what's going on. Feel comfortable with the message from the BOJ, BoE, Fed and SNB?  Economic reports are not improving, the PMI reports this week were all poor, with Germany and France getting top billing as they were so bad, Japan missed again and conerning is the US PMI fell to a 6 month low as all the pre tariff pump wore off. For the US however we did have a surprise with a 11% pop in existing homesales.

We did get a sell off Friday BUT we still sit over 2800 on the S&P.  The so called Powell Put and POTUS obsession with the Dow has put us in the Twilight zone with risk reward. The S&P 400 Mid-Cap index has surged to its best start to a year since 1991.  Earnings are a concern FedEx Corp cut its 2019 profit forecast for the second time in three months highlighting the impact of a slowing global economic conditions and weaker trade growth.

Investors are ignoring a global growth slowdown, central bankers are not. Companies are communicating through guidance throughout the year the risks. Its not just global,  Nike’s shares fell 6.61% on Friday after it reported North American sales missed expectations.

Markets continue to discount the abject failure, morose earnings and data swallowed by swelling debt. The SPX sits over 2800 and WTI over $58 despite waiver extensions, Citgo sanction reversal and OPEC lowering demand and increasing supply estimates.

Brexit highlight the ineptitude of leadership and disregard of voters wishes, that UK Parliment March 29 deadline to leave the EU is upon us. Apparently there is an extension or maybe No Deal ....

The Week Ahead

We start off the week with Europe, a quick look to guage how bad the PMI reports were with the Ifo business climate survey and consumer confidence reports. Germany's ifo Business Climate Index for March, with recent weakness in reports from major exporters and with Germany being the largest economy in the eurozone it is illustrative. German data acts as a thermometer for the region. The Business Climate Index,  Current Assessment Index and the Expectations Index will help us guage what kind of impact concerns about trade are having on overall sentiment. The Business Expectations Index fell to 93.8 from 94.2 its lowest level since late 2012.

The United States initially had a deadline to reach a deal on trade with China by March 1, but the White house has said it needs more time. This coming week a U.S. trade delegation, headed by Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin heads to China for the next round of tariff negotiations.

For America keep an eye on housing, as it is much what the Fed and successive U.S. administrations base American success on given its multiplier effect and we are entering the strongest time of the year for home sales.

Despite bankers chasing fees and sating egos ermerging markets continue to flutterafter the with Argentina's Peso hit a record low last week, rocking the Turkish Lire with it. As we preach every week it's not just the  Fragile 5 that we should keep an eye on. Presidential elections are scheduled in Ukraine on March 31 with local elections in Turkey also scheduled that day. South Africa has Presidential elections on May 8. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, India and Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask? 

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

 

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars. 

Earnings last week included Darden Restaurants, FedEx, Five Below, Lumber Liquidators, Micron Technology, Nike, Tiffany and Tilray.

The Week Ahead we have BlackBerry, CarMax, Carnival Corp, Conn’s, Five Below, KB Homes. Lennar, Lululemon Athletica and Red Hat reporting.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

  • US Federal Budget Deficit Record $234.0 billion in February
  • U.S. Oil Rigs Fall For Fifth Week With Crude Production At Record High
  • Into The Vortex - EIA Reports Draw of 47 Bcf in Natural Gas Storage
  • Bank of England Holds Base Rate at 0.75%, Brexit Uncertainties Weigh
  • Swiss National Bank Leaves Negative Rates Unchanged, Lowers Inflation Forecasts
  • Federal Reserve Keeps Rates Unchanged as Expected, No Hikes in 2019
  • Around The Barrel - Big Draws in Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillates
  • Japanese Manufacturers Sentiment Sinks to October 2016 Low - Reuters Tankan 

 

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

 MW Top 5 STOCKS 3 22 19

 Which Stocks Moved US ETF's Last Week

 MW Top 5 ETF STOCKS 3 22 19

 US Stock Indices Performance 

 MW US Performance 3 22 19

  S&P 500 

We got momentum down on the $SPX Friday, back into the weekly cloud which held. On the daily we can see the Kijun-Sen touched the tenkan San and turned over giving us 'the liss of death'. We need to see accelerating momentum now we are back under the 8/8 MurreyMath and chikou

MW SPX D 3 22 19

MW SPX W 3 22 19

  Apple $AAPL  

 MW AMZN W 3 22 19

Amazon $AMZN  

 MW AMZN W 3 22 19

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note   

 MW TNX W 3 22 19

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI) 

WTI on the weekly spat the previous break retest from a year ago and back through the 50wma (green) and Kijun Sen (pink) to bring chikou back in balance (blue) tenkan remians support - watch Murrey confluence.

 MW WTI W 3 22 19

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) 

Natural Gas on the weekly view shows the resistance clearly the weekly cloud and previous 61.8% Fibbo converging with the breakdown. Downside clear with 100% also the 2017-18 low

 MW NG W 3 22 19

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)  

 MW BDI W 3 22 19

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)  

The Aussie Weekly same story,  closer up we see the shelf clearly o/t the fall to 67 on the $AAPL warning has held despite all the bearish news, Range is 1/8 to 3/8 Murrey MAth until proven otherwise.

 MW AUDUSD W 3 22 19

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD) 

The kiwi can be best described as in balance for now closing at the 50% Fin and was been in the Weekly Cloud for a few week's now, it would need to break out from that to move from the sideways action. 

MW NZDUSD W 3 22 19

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) 

 MW USDCAD W 3 22 19

Euro (EURUSD) 

The Euro Weekly Tenkan failed again after testing the channel but failing on the woeful German GDP, We now evaulate if the previous spit reversal after breaking the highlighted Fib was conclusive. If we do get a rally over Tenkan Adam's Theory should apply.

MW EURUSD W 3 22 19

 EuroPound (EURGBP) 

The channel that is Brexit with a spit of the Tenkan as the EURUSD component sold off, back testing the chikou and lower band. Another vote this week, when will it end?

MW EURGBP W 3 22 19 

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

The rally that came after the $AAPL warning sell where risk off rushed to Yen reversed with the $USDJPY rally came off sharply this week as risk off went to the Yen again. Downside is the effective double bottom from Mar/Dec 2018. The weekly cloud and pennant break (blue) the range,

MW USDJPY W 3 22 19

 Mexican Peso (USDMXN) 

 MW USDMXN D 3 22 19

Turkish Lire (USDTRY) 

We got the move in the $USDTRY we have warning about since the Argentina Peso $USDARS hit a record low against the dollar to close at 42.5 pesos 3 weeks ago  After the $USDTRY broke and retested it moved sharply higher to the next Murrey Math band.off the daily cloud with Tenkan energy, The 50 also supported. Local elections scheduled on March 31 in Turkey and USD strength be alert

MW USDTRY D 3 22 19 

Bitcoin  

 MW BTC D 3 22 19

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Mon Mar 25 2019

  • 00:30 JPY All Industries Activity Index (MoM)
  • 01:00 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 02:30 JPY BOJ Board Member Harada Speaks
  • 04:00 EUR Spanish PPI (YoY)
  • 05:00 EUR German Business Expectations
  • 05:00 EUR German Current Assessment
  • 05:00 German Ifo Business Climate Index
  • Tentative GBP Inflation Expectations
  • 05:30 EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks
  • 06:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
  • 08:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Feb)
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Mar)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
  • 16:30 AUD RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks
  • 17:45 NZD Trade Balance (MoM) (Feb)
  • 19:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
  • 22:30 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

Tues  Mar 26 2019

  • 01:00 JPY BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
  • 01:00 SGD Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)
  • 03:00 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (Apr)
  • 03:45 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
  • 03:45 EUR French Business Survey (Mar)
  • 03:45 EUR French GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
  • 04:30 HKD Trade Balance
  • 05:30 GBP Gross Mortgage Approvals
  • 06:30 USD Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
  • 07:00 GBP BoE MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
  • 08:30 USD Building Permits (Feb)
  • 08:30 USD Housing Starts (Feb)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY)
  • 09:00 USD House Price Index (YoY) (Jan) 
  • 09:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite
  • 10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Mar) 
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (Mar)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Services Index (Mar)
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Mar)
  • 10:30 USD Texas Services Sector Outlook (Mar)
  • 11:30 USD 52-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction
  • 5:00 USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
  • 16:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 19:00 AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
  • 21:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
  • 21:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
  • 22:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference

Wed Mar 27 2019

  • 03:45 EUR French Consumer Confidence (Mar)
  • 03:45 EUR French PPI (MoM) (Feb)
  • 04:00 EUR Spanish HICP (YoY) (Mar)
  • 04:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • 04:00 EUR ECB's Lautenschlaeger Speaks
  • 04:00 EUR ECB's Nowotny Speaks
  • 04:45 EUR ECB's Praet Speaks
  • 05:00 EUR Italian Business Confidence (Mar)
  • 05:00 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence (Mar) 
  • 05:00 CHF ZEW Expectations (Mar) 
  • 06:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance
  • 06:00 EUR ECB's Lautenschlaeger Speaks
  • 06:40 EUR German 10-Year Bund Auction
  • 06:45 EUR ECB's De Guindos Speaks
  • 07:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Mar)
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) 
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 07:00 EUR France Jobseekers
  • 07:15 EUR Spanish Business Confidence
  • 08:30 USD Trade Balance (Jan)
  • 08:30 CAD Trade Balance (Jan)
  • 09:30 EUR ECB's Mersch Speaks
  • 10:00 CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 11:00 USD Current Account (Q4)
  • 13:00 USD 5-Year Note Auction
  • 17:00 KRW Manufacturing BSI Index (Apr)
  • 17:30 USD FOMC Member George Speaks
  • 19:00 AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
  • 19:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying
  • 19:50 JPY Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks
  • 20:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence (Mar) 
  • 20:00 NZD NBNZ Own Activity (Mar) 
  • Tentative KRW BOK Financial Stability Board Meeting

Thur Mar 28 2019

  • 03:00 GBP Nationwide HPI (YoY)
  • 04:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM)
  • 05:10 EUR ECB's De Guindos Speaks
  • 06:00 EUR Business and Consumer Survey (Mar) 
  • 06:00 EUR Business Climate (Mar)
  • 06:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Mar)
  • 06:45 EUR Italian 10-Year BTP Auction
  • 07:15 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • 07:15 EUR Spanish Business Confidence
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
  • 09:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Mar)
  • 09:00 ZAR Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
  • 09:30 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks 
  • 10:00 USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
  • 10:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction
  • 13:00 CHF SNB Gov Board Member Maechler Speaks
  • 13:15 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 16:00 NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
  • 17:20 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 17:45 NZD Building Consents (MoM) (Feb)
  • 19:00 KRW Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)
  • 19:30 JPY Jobs/applications ratio (Feb)
  • 19:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)
  • 19:30 JPY Unemployment Rate (Feb)
  • 19:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)
  • 19:50 JPY Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 
  • 20:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (Mar)
  • 20:30 AUD Housing Credit (Feb) 

Friday, March 29, 2019

  • 01:00 JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (Feb)
  • 01:00 JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (Feb) 
  • 03:00 GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Mar)
  • 03:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
  • 03:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 03:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Feb) 
  • 03:45 EUR French CPI (MoM)
  • 03:45 EUR French Government Budget Balance (Feb)
  • 04:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicators (Mar) 
  • 04:00 EUR Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q4)
  • 04:00 EUR Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb)
  • 04:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (Mar)
  • 05:00 EUR Spanish Current account (Jan)
  • 05:30 GBP Business Investment (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 05:30 GBP Current Account (Q4) 
  • 05:30 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
  • 05:45 EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks
  • 06:00 EUR Italian CPI (YoY) (Mar) 1
  • 06:00 EUR CPI (YoY) (Mar)
  • 07:00 EUR Italian PPI (YoY) (Feb) 
  • 08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan) 
  • 08:30 USD PCE Deflator (MoM)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (Feb)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Jan)
  • 08:30 CAD GDP (MoM) (Jan)
  • 08:30 CAD IPPI (YoY) (Feb)
  • 09:30 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 09:50 USD Chicago PMI (Mar)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar)
  • 10:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
  • 10:30 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
  • 11:00 CAD Budget Balance (YoY) (Jan)
  • 12:00 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes  Rig Count
  • 14:00 USD Dallas Fed PCE (Jan)
  • Tentative GBP UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal 
  • 15:30 USD CFTC speculative net positions

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Mar 25

Before Open

  • CHEETAH MBL-ADR CMCM DARIOHEALTH CP DRIO ICLICK INTERACT ICLK MEDIWOUND LTD MDWD WHERE FOOD CFI WFCF WINNEBAGO WGO YIRENDAI LTD YRD

After Market Close

  • ATYR PHARMA INC LIFE CESCA THERAP KOOL DEALNET CAPITAL DLS FALCONSTOR SFTW FALC RED HAT INC RHT SAEXPLORATN HLD SAEX YIELD10 BIOSCI YTEN

Tuesday Mar 26

Before Open

  • CARNIVAL CORP CCL CARNIVAL PLC CUK CHINA ZENIX AUT ZXAIY CONNS INC CONN CRONOS GROUP CRON CRONOS GROUP-TS CRO FACTSET RESH FDS IHS MARKIT LTD INFO MCCORMICK & CO MKC NEOGEN CORP NEOG ONCONOVA THERAP ONTX ORION GROUP HLD ORN TUANCHE LTD-ADR TC

After Close

  • AETERNA ZENTARS AEZS AETERNA ZENT-TS AEZ FAT BRANDS INC FAT INPIXON INPX KANE BIOTECH KNE KB HOME KBH OLLIES BGN OUTL OLLI PARK LAWN CORP PLC PERFORMANT FINL PFMT PHASEBIO PHARMA PHAS POLAR POWER INC POLA ROXGOLD INC ROX SHOE CARNIVAL SCVL TRANSATL PETROL TAT TRANSATL PET-TS TNP

Wednesday Mar 27

Before Open

  • ACORN ENERGY IN ACFN AFFIMED THERAP AFMD AGF MGMT -CL B AGF ARCOS DORADOS-A ARCO AT HOME GRP INC HOME CHARAH SOLUTION CHRA EVINE LIVE INC EVLV EYENOVIA INC EYEN FIBROCELL SCIEN FCSC ICONIX BRAND GP ICON LEATT CORP LEAT LENNAR CORP -A LEN LENNAR CORP -B LEN.B MAGAL SECURITY MAGS OMNOVA SOLUTION OMN P&F INDUSTRIES PFIN PARTNER COMM PTNR PAYCHEX INC PAYX SECUREWORKS CP SCWX SUMMIT WIRELESS WISA TITAN MACHINERY TITN UNIFIRST CORP UNF WEIDAL LTD-ADR WEI VALE SA VALE

After Close

  • ARCADIA BIOSCI RKDA AUDIOEYE INC AEYE BRI-CHEM CORP BRY CANGO INC-ADR CANG CARMANAH TECH CMH CENTRIC HEALTH CHH CYCLACEL PHARMA CYCC CYNERGISTEK INC CTEK DYADIC INTL INC DYAI ELECTROCORE LLC ECOR ELETROBRAS-ADR EBR ELETROBRAS-B EBR.B FIVE BELOW INC FIVE FULLER(HB) CO FUL GEVO INC GEVO LULULEMON ATHLT LULU NANOPHASE TECH NANX OSMOTICA PHARM OSMT PRO REIT PRV PVH CORP PVH ROSEHILL RESRCS ROSE RUMBLEON INC RMBL SAVARIA CP SIS SYNNEX CORP SNX VERINT SYSTEMS VRNT YOGAWORKS INC YOGA

Thursday Mar 28

Before Open

  • ACCENTURE PLC ACN ACHOGEN INC AKAO CHINA AUTO SYS CAAS EASTSIDE DISTIL EAST LIQTECH INTL LIQT MAV BEAUTY BRND MAV MOVADO GRP INC MOV QIWI PLC-ADR QIWI SPORTSMANS WRHS SPWH TRICIDA INC TCDA UNUM THERAPTICS UMRX UQM TECH INC UQM

After Close

  • BIOCEPT INC BIOC BOXLIGHT CORP BOXL CAPRICOR THERAP CAPR COPEL-ADR PR B ELP CPFL ENERGI-ADR CPL FORTY SEVEN INC FTSV HYRECAR INC HYRE NANTHEALTH INC NH NOVABAY PHARMAC NBY OXFORD INDS INC OXM PROGRESS SOFTWA PRGS RESTORATION HDW RH SCIENCE APP INT SAIC SIERRA METALS SMT SMART GLBL HLDG SGH VOXELJET AG-ADR VJET XPRESSPA GROUP XSPA

Friday Mar 29

Before Open

  • AUXLY CANNABIS CBWTF BLACKBERRY LTD BB CARMAX GP (CC) KMX CELSION CORP CLSN EVER-GLORY INTL EVK HENNES&MAURIT HNNMY LXRANDCO INC-B LXR MICT INC MICT NATUZZI SPA-ADR NTZ NEW AGE BEVRGS NBEV TSAKOS EGY NAVG TNP SOUTHGOBI RESRC SGQRF

After Close

  • Nil

For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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