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 Trump and XI

FEAR NOT Brave Investors

Trade Deadline, Powell Testimony and Economic Data

This week finished like last week, with a rush to risk-on with stock markets and oil all ignoring the mostly dismal U.S. and European economic data, an endless trade war saga and earnings misses.  The internal American political war with itself continues to reach new comedic levels.it would suggest the no risk environment has become a parody of itself wth the Fed oblivious to risk. 

Here's a question what happens if the never ending saga of a trade resolution coming and perfectly timed commentary to keep the market buoyed the market ends with a deal or China walking away? Again what happens if there is actually a deal? Nothing new on Brexit, it is still an inconclusive mess, analysts are back touting high PE, or no PE stocks, what's not to love?

Oil marched higher despite another all time high in US crude production report and with Exxon, Chevron, Halliburton and Schlumberger all pointing to higher production. The market has risk on not just in oil but most commodities (except poor old natural gas), despite the backdrop and crash of 9 weeks ago. Of note Russian cracks are appearing. Oh and the economy WILL recover, because it will, it just will damnit!

Repetitive I know but emerging markets have bounced with everything else since December and it's not just the the Fragile 5 that we should keep an eye on. Presidential elections are scheduled in Ukraine on March 31 with local elections in Turkey also scheduled that day. South Africa has Presidential elections on May 8. Voters will be going to the polls in Poland, Argentina, India and Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand this year. Over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. Nevertheless Banks are telling investors to buy, buy, buy, who is selling you should ask?

If you wanted to play in the big room at Vegas, you are living it.  Understand risk and the madness of crowds for your own sanity and wealth.

The week ahead will focus again on China and American trade with the March 1 deadline for the US to again raise it's tariffs looms ever closer on the horizon, the market's hope that even if it passes it will be extended. US Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell's testimony on the economic outlook and the Fed's monetary policy plans before the House of Representatives and Senate on Feb 26. and 27 will get the algos rolling.

The Commerce Department will publish its first look at fourth-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday. US personal income and spending for December is now interesting after the sharp drop in retail sales. US durable goods orders for January and the ISM's manufacturing index will also be closely watched. Caixin is due to publish the Chinese manufacturing sector PMI for February 

To keep things interesting US President Donald Trump is due to attend a summit with North Korea on Wednesday and Thursday, in Hanoi.

Focus on yourself and what YOU CAN INFLUENCE, set your trading plan and goals in be set for 2019. One suspects it will be a year long Groundhog day for Trump, the GOP and the Democrats. We still have China and the U.S.trade wars. 

Earnings last week included iQiyi, Newmont Mining,Transocean, Walmart and shale names; Devon, Diamondback, Parsley and Concho.

This week's include; Tenneco, Shake Shack, Potbelly, Range Resources, Tenet Healthcare, Mosaic, Keane Group, Carrizo, Etsy, Home Depot, Discovery, Bank of Montreal, Chenier, Mylan, Nabors Industries, Auto Zone, Macy's, Sempra Energy, EOG Resources, Whiting Petroleum, Cracker Barrel, TJX Cos, Lowe's, Bayer, Chesapeake Energy, Wingstop, Best Buy, Rowan Cos, Booking holdings, Apache, Campbell Soup, HP, L Brands, Petrobras. Square, Box, JC Penney, A-B InBev, NRG Energy, PG&E, Toronto-Dominion, Canadian Imperial Bank, JD.com, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Gap, Nordstrom, Workday, VMWare, Pure Storage, Autodesk, Dell Foot Locker, WPP Group, and Tribune Media.

-comment section below data-

Geopolitical Tinderbox Radar

Italy CDS
Turkey Geopolitical

Last Week's Big Stories

The Week That Was - Last Weeks Recap

Earnings

Stock Markets

Biggest Stock Winners and Losers Last Week*

MW Top 5 Stocks 2 22 19 

 Which Stocks Moved US ETF's Last Week

 MW Top 5 ETF Stocks 2 22 19

 US Stock Indices Performance 

 MW US Market overview 2 22 19

  S&P 500 

 MW SPX W 2 22 19

  Apple $AAPL  

 MW AAPL W 2 22 19

Amazon $AMZN  

 MW AMZN W 2 22 19

Fixed Interest

10 Year Treasury Note   

 MW TNX W 2 22 19

Energy and Commodities

US Crude Oil (WTI) 

 MW WTI W1 2 22 19

US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) 

 MW NG W 2 22 19

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)  

 MW BDI W 2 22 19

Currency Markets

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)  

 MW AUDUSD W 2 22 19

 New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD) 

 MW NZDUSD W 2 22 19

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) 

 MW USDCAD W 2 22 19

Euro (EURUSD) 

MW EURUSD W 2 22 19 

EuroPound (EURGBP) 

 MW EURGBP W 2 22 19

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)  

 MW USDJPY W 2 22 19

 Mexican Peso (USDMXN) 

MW USDMXN W 2 22 19 

Turkish Lire (USDTRY) 

 MW USDTRY W 2 22 19

Bitcoin  

 MW BTC D 2 22 19

The Week Ahead

Key US Economic and Central Bank Events This Week

Mon Feb 25 2019

  • 00:00 JPY Leading Index
  • 02:30 CHF Employment Level (Q4)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish PPI (YoY)
  • 08:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity (Jan)
  • 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Dec)
  • 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Feb)
  • 11:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction
  • 13:00 USD 5-Year Note Auction

Tues  Feb 26 2019

  • 00:00 JPY BoJ Core CPI (YoY)
  • 00:00 SGD Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)
  • 02:00 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (Mar)
  • 02:45 EUR French Consumer Confidence (Feb) 
  • 03:30 HKD Trade Balance
  • Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings '
  • 08:30 USD Building Permits (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Housing Starts (Dec)
  • 08:30 CAD Corporate Profits (QoQ)
  • 08:55 USD Redbook (YoY) (MoM)
  • 09:00 USD House Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
  • 09:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Dec)
  • 10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)
  • 10:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (Feb)
  • 10:00 USD Richmond Services Index (Feb)
  • 10:30 USD Texas Services Sector Outlook (Feb)
  • 11:30 USD 52-Week Bill Auction
  • 13:00 USD 7-Year Note Auction
  • 16:00 KRW Manufacturing BSI Index (Mar)
  • 16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 16:45 NZD Trade Balance (YoY) (Jan)
  • 19:30 AUD Construction Work Done (QoQ)
  • 20:30 JPY BoJ Board Member Kataoka Speaks
  • 22:30 HKD GDP (YoY) (Q4) 

Wed Feb 27 2019

  • 03:00 EUR Italian Business Confidence (Feb) 1
  • 03:00 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence (Feb)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Jan)
  • 04:00 CHF ZEW Expectations (Feb) 
  • 05:00 EUR Business and Consumer Survey (Feb)
  • 05:00 EUR Business Climate (Feb)
  • 05:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Feb)
  • 05:00 EUR Industrial Sentiment (Feb)
  • 05:40 EUR German 10-Year Bund Auction
  • 05:45 EUR Italian 10-Year BTP Auction
  • 06:00 EUR France Jobseekers
  • 06:15 EUR Spanish Business Confidence
  • 07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
  • 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) 
  • 07:00 USD MBA Purchase Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Market Index
  • 07:00 USD Mortgage Refinance Index
  • 08:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)
  • 08:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan)
  • 08:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (Dec)
  • 08:30 CAD CPI (YoY)
  • 10:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM)
  • 10:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan)
  • 10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • 18:00 KRW Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)
  • 18:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)
  • 18:50 JPY Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 
  • Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) 
  • 19:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence (Feb)
  • 20:00 KRW Interest Rate Decision (Mar) 
  • 20:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • 20:00 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • 20:30 JPY BoJ Board Member Suzuki Speaks

Thur Feb 28 2019

  • 01:45 CHF GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 
  • 02:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Jan)
  • 02:45 EUR French GDP (YoY)
  • 02:45 EUR French PPI (MoM) (Jan)
  • 03:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicators (Feb)
  • 03:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM)
  • 05:00 EUR Italian CPI (YoY) (Feb)
  • 07:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY)
  • 08:00 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
  • 08:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Feb)
  • 08:30 USD Core PCE Prices
  • 08:30 USD Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 08:30 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 08:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
  • 08:30 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg
  • 08:30 USD PCE Prices
  • 08:30 USD Real Consumer Spending (Q4)
  • 08:30 CAD Current Account (Q4)
  • 08:30 CAD IPPI, RMPI (YoY) (Jan) 
  • 08:50 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 09:45 USD Chicago PMI (Feb)
  • 10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
  • 11:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
  • 11:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (Feb)
  • 11:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)
  • 11:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
  • 11:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction
  • 16:45 NZD Terms of Trade
  • 17:00 AUD Manufacturing PMI
  • 17:30 AUD AIG Manufacturing Index (Feb) 
  • 18:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Feb)
  • 18:30 JPY Unemployment Rate (Jan)
  • 19:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • 20:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 
  • 22:00 KRW Trade Balance (Feb) 1.29B

Fri Mar 1 2019

  • All Day Holiday South Korea - Independence Movement Day
  • 00:00 JPY Household Confidence (Feb)
  • 00:30 AUD Commodity Prices (YoY)
  • 02:00 EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan)
  • 02:15 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • 02:45 EUR French Government Budget Balance
  • 03:30 CHF SVME PMI (Feb)
  • 03:45 EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • 03:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • 03:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • 03:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate (Feb)
  • 04:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Jan)
  • 04:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • 04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • 05:00 EUR CPI (YoY) (Feb)
  • 05:00 EUR Unemployment Rate (Jan) 
  • 08:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD PCE Deflator (YoY) 1.7% 
  • 08:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) (Jan)
  • 08:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) (Dec)
  • 08:30 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM)
  • 08:30 CAD GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
  • 08:30 CAD GDP (MoM) (Dec)
  • 09:30 CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 
  • 09:45 USD Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • 10:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • 10:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb)
  • 10:06 USD Dallas Fed PCE (Dec)
  • 12:50 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
  • 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count
  • 15:30 USD Total Vehicle Sales 16.70M
  • 15:30 CFTC speculative net positions

 

Notable Earnings Reports This Week

*EPS estimates via Morningstar where available

Monday Feb 25

Before Open

  • CARTERS INC CRI CENTAMIN PLC CELTF DIANA CONTAINER DCIX KOSMOS ENERGY KOS MOGU INC-ADR MOGU NATL STORAGE NSA TENNECO INC TEN

After Market Close

  • ALDER BIOPHARMA ALDR CARRIZO OIL&GAS CRZO ENDOLOGIX INC ELGX ETSY INC ETSY EVERQUOTE INC EVER HEIDRICK & STRG HSII HERTZ GLBL HLDG HTZ IMMUNOMEDICS IMMU KEANE GROUP INC FRAC LIFE STORAGE LSI MOSAIC CO/THE MOS NAUTILUS INC NLS ONEOK INC OKE RANGE RESOURCES RRC RENT-A-CENTER RCII ROCKY BRANDS RCKY SHAKE SHACK INC SHAK TENET HEALTH THC

Tuesday Feb 26

Before Open

  • AUTOZONE INC AZO BANK MONTREAL BMO BANK OF NOVA SC BNS BOISE CASCADE BCC CHENIERE ENERGY LNG COMPUGEN LTD CGEN CRACKER BARREL CBRL DIANA SHIPPING DSX DISCOVERY COM-A DISCA HOME DEPOT HD HUSKY ENERGY HSE KBR INC KBR LENDINGTREE INC TREE MACYS INC M SANDERSON FARMS SAFM SEADRILL LTD SDRL SEMPRA ENERGY SRE SERVICEMASTR GH SERV SHUTTERSTOCK SSTK SMUCKER JM SJM THOMSON REUTERS TRI THOMSON REUT-TS TRI VERICEL CORP VCEL VITAMIN SHOPPE VSI

After Close

  • ACADIA PHARMA ACAD BIG 5 SPORTING BGFV CORELOGIC INC CLGX DYNAVAX TECH CP DVAX EOG RES INC EOG IMAX CORP IMAX JAZZ PHARMACEUT JAZZ MATADOR RESOURC MTDR MYLAN NV MYL NABORS IND NBR OASIS PETROLEUM OAS PALO ALTO NETWK PANW PAPA JOHNS INTL PZZA PLANET FITNESS PLNT PUBLIC STORAGE PSA RED ROBIN GOURM RRGB TIVO CORP TIVO TOLL BROTHERS TOL WEIGHT WATCHERS WTW WHITING PETROLM WLL

Wednesday Feb 27

Before Open

  • AES CORP AES BEST BUY BBY CAMPBELL SOUP CPB CHESAPEAKE ENGY CHK DEAN FOODS CO DF EL PASO ELEC CO EE GOLAR LNG PARTN GMLP LOWES COS LOW NATL BK CDA NTIOF OCWEN FINL CORP OCN OFFICE DEPOT ODP RIO TINTO-ADR RIO ROWAN COS PLC RDC STEVEN MADDEN SHOO TJX COS INC NEW TJX
  • APACHE CORP APA BOX INC-A BOX FITBIT INC FIT HILTON GRAND VA HGV HOSTESS BRANDS TWNK HP INC HPQ L BRANDS INC LB MONSTER BEVERAG MNST PDC ENERGY INC PDCE SEMGROUP CORP-A SEMG SQUARE INC SQ UNIVL HLTH SVCS UHS WINGSTOP INC WING

Thursday Feb 28

Before Open

  • ANHEUSER-BU ADR BUD CENTERPOINT EGY CNP CROCS INC CROX JD.COM INC-ADR JD KEURIG DR PEPPR KDP LIBERTY MEDIA-A FWONA MARRIOT VAC WW VAC NRG ENERGY INC NRG PARTY CITY HOCO PRTY PATTERSON COS PDCO PENNEY (JC) INC JCP PG&E CORP PCG ROLLS ROYCE PLC RYCEY SOTHEBYS BID TORONTO DOM BNK TD

After Close

  • AMBAC FINL GRP AMBC AMC ENTERTAINMT AMC AUTODESK INC ADSK COHU INC COHU DELL TECHNOLOGS DELL EDISON INTL EIX GAP INC GPS LIVE NATION ENT LYV MARRIOTT INTL-A MAR MAXAR TECH INC MAXR NORDSTROM INC JWN SOUTHWESTRN ENE SWN SPLUNK INC SPLK VMWARE INC-A VMW WORKDAY INC-A WDAY

Friday Mar 1

Before Open

  • BORALEX INC BLX EVOFEM BIOSCNCS EVFM EW SCRIPPS CO SSP FOOT LOCKER INC FL NORTHWEST NATRL NWN PATTERN ENERGY PEG TRIBUNE MEDIA TRCO

After Close

  • CHARTWELL RETMT CSH HERITAGE INSUR HRTG PIZZA PIZZA RC PZA

For More Earnings and estimates visit Morningstar Earnings Here

Note these estimates and times are subject to change and for indication only. Trade and invest at your own risk.

Trade Smart!  

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